Any Educated Guesses on a Real Winter for Houston this Year?

[JenBayles]

The past several years in Houston have been unusually warm (let's not start another global warming thread here!) and while I've enjoyed keeping my tender tropicals going with little effort, I'm ready for more normal winter weather for a change.

We've really enjoyed having a more seasonal September this year as opposed to the 100+ degrees we experienced last year. I don't think we got a decent cool front through until the first or second week of October in 2005. Anyone have any opinions on what might happen in SE TX over the next few months? El Nino effect? Warm again? Cooler? Wetter? Drier?

[vbhoutex]

If the unfolding El Nino continues and holds. we should have a stormier than normal and cooler than normal Winter. For now that is about as educated of a guess as I can give without looking at other factors.

[JenBayles]

Hey David! Yeah, I was wondering about the effect of El Nino this year. The big one we had a few years ago yielded an extremely wet and miserable winter as I recall. Doesn't EN result in those low-pressure systems swinging in from S. California, crossing SE TX, and then moving up the East Coast? It was like a pipeline just opened up and kept lobbing those things our way for months. Sure would help to re-hydrate the state if it pans out.

[Portastorm]

Hey David! Yeah, I was wondering about the effect of El Nino this year. The big one we had a few years ago yielded an extremely wet and miserable winter as I recall. Doesn't EN result in those low-pressure systems swinging in from S. California, crossing SE TX, and then moving up the East Coast? It was like a pipeline just opened up and kept lobbing those things our way for months. Sure would help to re-hydrate the state if it pans out.

Two words we don't want to hear this winter: Pineapple Express.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Weaker El ninos, like the one expected this winter, allow for a wetter and cooler winter with a higher chance of arctic fronts. Stronger El ninos, however, allow for virtually no arctic fronts, but A LOT of moisture and cloud cover to keep us cool (but not cold). A strong El Nino is not expected this winter.

My prediction: An overall cool winter with a few periods of warmer and colder weather, but when compared to last year, we will be much colder. I also expect at least a few hard freezes at IAH and probably a few days with highs below 40F. I also think there is a higher than climatological chance of winter precipitation due to the probable increased cloud cover and moisture our area should see. Should be a fun winter for weather.

[JenBayles]

[quote="PortastormTwo words we don't want to hear this winter: Pineapple Express.[/quote]

Now that's a new one for me! Is that an Austin colloquialism?

[gboudx]

Two words we don't want to hear this winter: Pineapple Express.

Now that's a new one for me! Is that an Austin colloquialism?

It's a real term used to describe the Pacific jet stream that brings warm, moist air from the Hawaiian area. Check it out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express

[JonathanBelles]

I hate the pineapple express. it can rain for days!!! and it get really muggy

[Portastorm]

[

Oh, we have a few of those!!

But in this case, as the wikipedia article points out, the Pineapple Express basically brings a lot of storminess first to the West Coast and then into the southern U.S., riding the active southern jet during a moderate to major El Nino year.

It means a lot of flood events and severe weather events here in central and south Texas. Not fun, unless you like that sort of stuff.

[Ptarmigan]

Depends on the El Nino. If we use history, a weak El Nino could mean colder than normal winters, which will be a stormier one as well. I expect a ice storm and even some snow this winter. In 1895, Houston had 20 inches of snow. Winter of 1997 was a strong El Nino and it was wet and stormy with an icestorm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Depends on the El Nino. If we use history, a weak El Nino could mean colder than normal winters, which will be a stormier one as well. I expect a ice storm and even some snow this winter. In 1895, Houston had 20 inches of snow. Winter of 1997 was a strong El Nino and it was wet and stormy with an icestorm.

December 2004's Christmas snowstorm also occured during a weak el nino.

[Ptarmigan]

December 2004's Christmas snowstorm also occured during a weak el nino.

I remember that one. I never knew 2004 was an El Nino year. 2004 hurricane season was very active. Houston was very wet that year.

[jasons2k]

I haven't had time to much of an analysis, but just glancing at the CPC 90-day forecast for Oct/Nov/Dec it doesn't look like anything unusual for the first half of winter.

If the sub-tropical jet sets-up a litttle further north than anticipated, it could be pretty wet though IMO:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 1_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 1_prcp.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

December 2004's Christmas snowstorm also occured during a weak el nino.

I remember that one. I never knew 2004 was an El Nino year. 2004 hurricane season was very active. Houston was very wet that year.

yeah, I believe that El Nino set up after the peak of the hurricane season in 2004.

Either way...the el nino pattern and the likely neg. NAO should lead to a wet, and cold winter east of the rockies, and based on climatology..we should have a better than normal shot of seeing snow, sleet or frz. rain in this part of TX.

What I DONT think will happen is a strong El nino set up. Strong El Ninos would lead to a wet, cool winter, but it would likely mean no arctic fronts. This year should not be like that, and should feature plenty of arctic airmasses into the plains and east.

[gboudx]

I'm just hopeful for the wet part of the El Nino. Any idea when the conditions should start setting in?

[Ptarmigan]

yeah, I believe that El Nino set up after the peak of the hurricane season in 2004.

Either way...the el nino pattern and the likely neg. NAO should lead to a wet, and cold winter east of the rockies, and based on climatology..we should have a better than normal shot of seeing snow, sleet or frz. rain in this part of TX.

What I DONT think will happen is a strong El nino set up. Strong El Ninos would lead to a wet, cool winter, but it would likely mean no arctic fronts. This year should not be like that, and should feature plenty of arctic airmasses into the plains and east.

2002-2003 El Nino was weak and we had snow and freezing rain in Austin. Winter of 1996-1997 was a strong El Nino, but I remember there was an icestorm in January of 1997.

[JenBayles]

Boy do I remember 1997 - I lost a couple branches off a gorgeous oak tree out back. Thankfully, they didn't hit any of the 2 houses in back of us.

It's really something when frozen precip hits Houston. Nobody has a clue how to drive in it, and as for slowing down, well... huh?! For instance, my husband used to think his 4WD vehicle could get through ice.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I believe that El Nino set up after the peak of the hurricane season in 2004.

Either way...the el nino pattern and the likely neg. NAO should lead to a wet, and cold winter east of the rockies, and based on climatology..we should have a better than normal shot of seeing snow, sleet or frz. rain in this part of TX.

What I DONT think will happen is a strong El nino set up. Strong El Ninos would lead to a wet, cool winter, but it would likely mean no arctic fronts. This year should not be like that, and should feature plenty of arctic airmasses into the plains and east.

2002-2003 El Nino was weak and we had snow and freezing rain in Austin. Winter of 1996-1997 was a strong El Nino, but I remember there was an icestorm in January of 1997.

well actually what it was, was the el nino of 97-98 was strong, but the ice storm in Jan. 97 (right when the el nino began) occured while it was still a weak el nino. Weak el ninos seem to mean a higher than normal risk of winter weather for TX, while strong el ninos usually mean a lower than normal risk.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is a little off topic, but I was just looking around the internet and came across this cool picuture of the forecast for snow in Houston in in Dec. 2004:

[img=http://thumb14.webshots.net/t/16/16/1/70/99/236017099PGaylu_th.jpg]

Hopefully we will see that again this year!

BTW: The low never did get down to 20F. Increased cloud cover (I believe) kept the low at IAH up to about 27F. Also, the high of 32F didn't play out for IAH either...the official high was about 36F.

[JenBayles]

Yup - that's the way I remember it. Also, I remember I was smoking turkeys and putting together baskets with Christmas baked-goods the day it snowed. Best Christmas I ever had!