2006/2007 Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook
“An early cyclone less likely this season, says Bureau of Meteorology”
The Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin has released its 2006/2007 Cyclone Season Outlook for the waters surrounding the Northern Territory.
Although the outlook indicates a late start to tropical cyclone activity this season, tropical cyclones can develop at any time between 1 November and 30 April. Coastal and island communities in the Top End of the Northern Territory are urged to begin their preparations now.
Details of the outlook for the 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season for the Northern Region:
* An early cyclone (i.e. November or early December) is less likely this year. In El Niño years, the average date of the first cyclone near the Northern Territory falls during January.
* The Gulf of Carpentaria tends to see the most cyclone activity during El Niño years.
* There is a 60% chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) during the season. If a severe cyclone forms, it is more likely to affect the Gulf of Carpentaria.
* It is likely that at least one tropical cyclone will form in the seas around the Northern Territory, with a 60% chance of 2 to 3 cyclones. As many as 5 tropical cyclones have formed in a season since records began.
The 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook is based on cooler than average sea surface temperatures about northern Australia and current climate patterns in the Australian and south Pacific region. These patterns are typical of the developing phase of an El Niño event.
The Northern Region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Source
2006/07 AUstralian Cyclone Season Outlooks
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AussieMark
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"Heads up" for tropical cyclones despite outlook for quieter start
(issued 13 October 2006)
Communities in the northwest of Western Australia are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.
The last tropical cyclone season was very active in the Pilbara with four tropical cyclones crossing the coast: Clare, Emma, Glenda and Hubert. In addition Daryl and Floyd threatened the coastline without directly having an impact. "Although flooding caused many problems, we were lucky that communities in the Northwest did not experience the full force of an intense tropical cyclone" stated Joe Courtney, Severe Weather Meteorologist.
Fortunately the 2006/07 season is not expected to be as busy as last season. There is also a decreased risk of a tropical cyclone affecting the coast before Christmas. "But as we saw with Tropical Cyclone Larry in Queensland, it only takes one tropical cyclone to have a devastating impact" cautioned Mr Courtney. "At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. So the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared" he said.
The 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook for North West Australia is based on the ocean-atmosphere patterns being typical of a developing El Niño event. The July to September 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -10, much lower than last season. Ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific are higher than normal while those around northern Australia are lower than normal.
Details of the 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook for North West Australia:
* Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
* Likelihood of around one or two coastal impacts.
* A low chance of a cyclone forming off the northwest coast before Christmas. Should one form before Christmas there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or Eighty-mile Beach area. The risk of a coastal impact before Christmas at Pilbara coastal towns is low.
* Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is more likely to be below average (the average number of cyclones is 5).
* There is a higher than usual chance of tropical cyclone activity in April.
Source
(issued 13 October 2006)
Communities in the northwest of Western Australia are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.
The last tropical cyclone season was very active in the Pilbara with four tropical cyclones crossing the coast: Clare, Emma, Glenda and Hubert. In addition Daryl and Floyd threatened the coastline without directly having an impact. "Although flooding caused many problems, we were lucky that communities in the Northwest did not experience the full force of an intense tropical cyclone" stated Joe Courtney, Severe Weather Meteorologist.
Fortunately the 2006/07 season is not expected to be as busy as last season. There is also a decreased risk of a tropical cyclone affecting the coast before Christmas. "But as we saw with Tropical Cyclone Larry in Queensland, it only takes one tropical cyclone to have a devastating impact" cautioned Mr Courtney. "At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. So the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared" he said.
The 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook for North West Australia is based on the ocean-atmosphere patterns being typical of a developing El Niño event. The July to September 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -10, much lower than last season. Ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific are higher than normal while those around northern Australia are lower than normal.
Details of the 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook for North West Australia:
* Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
* Likelihood of around one or two coastal impacts.
* A low chance of a cyclone forming off the northwest coast before Christmas. Should one form before Christmas there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or Eighty-mile Beach area. The risk of a coastal impact before Christmas at Pilbara coastal towns is low.
* Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is more likely to be below average (the average number of cyclones is 5).
* There is a higher than usual chance of tropical cyclone activity in April.
Source
Last edited by AussieMark on Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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AussieMark
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HurricaneBill wrote:The 2005-2006 season was brutal on you guys. 4 major cyclones!
I know the SPAC is at higher risk for an intense cyclone. Hopefully, nothing like the 2004-2005 season.
Does anyone know how El Nino affects the SW Indian Ocean?
The SW Indian usually gets more active during El Nino's.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=90564
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AussieMark
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Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season 2006-07
On the basis of the best available information, it is considered unlikely that the coming cyclone season will be quite as active as last season. In 2005-06, there were 5 tropical cyclones in the Queensland region with both LARRY and MONICA having severe impacts on the east coast.
The general climate pattern is typical of the developing stage of an El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the region and sustained negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index have been recorded. Furthermore, there is considered to be an elevated risk that these El Niño conditions will soon become fully established, and then persist through until Autumn next year.
The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson said today that from a climatological perspective, cyclone occurrence on and near the east Queensland coast is lower during El Niño conditions than in Neutral or La Niña years. Accordingly, cyclone numbers this season are more likely to be below average. At least two cyclones are expected however and one of these may well be severe.
At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.
Mr Davidson reaffirmed that the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared.
It is also worthwhile to note that the steady growth in coastal development has served to significantly increase community vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with mitigation being a widely accepted strategy to reduce the impact.
Source
On the basis of the best available information, it is considered unlikely that the coming cyclone season will be quite as active as last season. In 2005-06, there were 5 tropical cyclones in the Queensland region with both LARRY and MONICA having severe impacts on the east coast.
The general climate pattern is typical of the developing stage of an El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the region and sustained negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index have been recorded. Furthermore, there is considered to be an elevated risk that these El Niño conditions will soon become fully established, and then persist through until Autumn next year.
The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson said today that from a climatological perspective, cyclone occurrence on and near the east Queensland coast is lower during El Niño conditions than in Neutral or La Niña years. Accordingly, cyclone numbers this season are more likely to be below average. At least two cyclones are expected however and one of these may well be severe.
At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.
Mr Davidson reaffirmed that the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared.
It is also worthwhile to note that the steady growth in coastal development has served to significantly increase community vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with mitigation being a widely accepted strategy to reduce the impact.
Source
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