92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

#1 Postby **drezee** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:32 am

Morning visibles are looking like TS Earl from a few years back. Energy is being injected from the E Pac as well. It will likely not go tropical, due to baroclinic processes, but it could really cause a blow on the TX/LA coast...

KatDaddy · #2 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:38 am

Houston-Galveston areas expecting widespread 2-4" with some area recieving 7-9".
Flash Flood Watches will go into effect later tonight for SE TX.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:48 am

I was just on the phone to our office about this system. I think there may be a good chance of TS development within the next 24 hours. A low appears to be forming farther to the south than the GFS is forecasting. Pressures are actually lowest in the BoC. If that's the case, then upper level winds would be more favorable for development AND there may be more time over water than the GFS is indicating. Could easily become a moderate TS before it moves ashore. How strong depends on when it moves ashore. GFS says Sunday afternoon/evening. Could be 12 or 24 hours later, though.

KatDaddy · #4 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:58 am

Where would the landfall occur?

Could be possible TX could see another Oct TS landfall. That would be amazing.

#5 Postby **drezee** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:05 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_%281998%29

Pic of developing Earl:

#6 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:07 am

and why would the NHC not mention this but mention the nothing L north of Puerto Rico.

I give it a 50% chance of development. Joyce is that you? :eek:

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:08 am

KatDaddy wrote:Where would the landfall occur?

Could be possible TX could see another Oct TS landfall. That would be amazing.

Steering currents take it northward from wherever it forms. Most likely upper TX coast to SW LA. We could see some heavy rain here if it goes in just to our west. At least MY neighborhood could use it. I went to Harris County's rainfall map for 2006 and see that my area (red circle) has had only 20-24 inches of rain this year. That's half what most of the county received. My foundation is sinking in the front and now I need to get it fixed.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/2006rain.gif

#8 Postby **drezee** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:09 am

This is one of those situations that could go from nothing to something very quickly...RECON may be scrambling and all...First few visibles are looking very interesting...

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:11 am

gatorcane wrote:and why would the NHC not mention this but mention the nothing L north of Puerto Rico.

I give it a 50% chance of development. Joyce is that you?

Very good question, gatorcane. I think there is something going on at the NHC. It happened during Ernesto after there was in-house debate at the NHC over whether Ernesto should have been upgraded. From then on, the NHC has been acting "strange". This system in the Gulf has a much better chance of development than the swirl of clouds in the high shear area that the NHC is mentioning. Even if it doesn't develop, it may produce 60-70 kt wind gusts at the offshore platforms/rigs tomorrow.

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:11 am

drezee wrote:This is one of those situations that could go from nothing to something very quickly...RECON may be scrambling and all...First few visibles are looking very interesting...

season cancel? Not yet afterall we are not even to mid October. Western GOM closed for business? I don't think so. Get Recon ready. We should see it mentioned in the 10:30 TWO.

WxMan where do you think the Low is forming?

Predicted 10:30 TWO:

a large area of showers and thunderstorms are over the Western GOM. bla bla bla. ULL winds are marginally favorable for development slow development is possible over the next day or so as it moves north. Even if nothing develops locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Texas over the next couple of days

#11 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:19 am

I was surprised that the BOC was this fired up this morning. especially waking up to the very chilly cold front:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

#12 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:23 am

awaiting the much anticipated TWO........

Chacor · #13 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:25 am

You mean the 11:30 one in an hour, rather than the 10:30?

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:26 am

that's right its 11:30...alright I'll catch it later thanks

#15 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:28 am

Western Gulf development ... ha, yeah right gatorcane ... next thing I know, you'll be telling me that Florida's going to win the national championship. :wink:

Stratosphere747 · #16 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:32 am

Actually a low forming has been discussed in another thread, outside of TT. It's just that we have shown a bit of patience....

Have to think that there may be some mention of it in the TWO. And even though it is the "TWO", its proximity to land will give reason to be interested.

#17 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:34 am

All kidding aside ... yeah, it does look impressive this morning and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see tropical development of this system.

I'm real curious how its going to affect our forecasts here in Texas as any significant low forming will affect the Gulf inflow aspect of our pending rain event.

Stratosphere747 · #18 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:45 am

Corpus' disco earlier this morning..

"HAVE DISREGARDED
GFS CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND WILL GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM."

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

rockyman · #19 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:51 am

Rut-roh...SSD loop shows a 1007 low now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

edit: click on the NWS Fronts box

Also, here's the visible loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

#20 Postby **drezee** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:59 am

I am surprised that they are not talking about the real potential for waterspouts given the wind shear and available energy in extreme S TX.

92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

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