NOGAPS Must Be On Crack

['CaneFreak]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

NOGAPS is showing signs of an organized system in the western Carribean in days 5 and 6 just off of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras moving NNW @ about 10 to 12 mph....this is bogus though..I think the NOGAPS IS PROBABLY ON CRACK....

[george_r_1961]

Maybe it is on to something. We have had some monsters spin up down there this time of year.

[hurricanetrack]

Yep, not sure about why there is any surprise at this. Pressures will be lower in the west Carib- even ECMWF shows hint of cyclogenesis in the area. It's just SO unusual to see development close to land THIS season that it is probably a little shocking to say the least.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah not sure what's up with the NOGAPS but, it is showing a closed low south of Western Cuba, moving northward. I have not noticed if any of the other models are showing something.

[Dean4Storms]

Not entirely out of the question this time of year in that location. One thing for sure though the UL winds will likely remain unfavorable for much intensification so I wouldn't expect anything more than possibly a TS.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nogaps still showing a low heading towards a cold front dipping down into the Southeast.

I wouldn't be totally suprised if there was a storm but, I'm not sure if any of the other models are picking up on it.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the NOGAPS continues to develop this low. I dont see the other models develop a low though. I checked the latest 12Z GFS and UKMET but I dont really see much of anything. Not sure what to make of it.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Yep, not sure about why there is any surprise at this. Pressures will be lower in the west Carib- even ECMWF shows hint of cyclogenesis in the area. It's just SO unusual to see development close to land THIS season that it is probably a little shocking to say the least.

not unusual at all. South Florida's highest chances of a hit is in October. Water temps are more than warm enough and we haven't even seen our first real cold front yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if Joyce forms there.

[gatorcane]

How could this low form people are wondering? Well looking at the setup now, you have a huge anticyclone over the northern GOM that you can clearly see spinning away. It's going to move East and the unsettled weather in the Eastern Caribbean will get pushed into the Western Caribbean and ride around the periphery of the anticyclone. Once in the western Caribbean the activity moves into a more favorable environment and a low develops and moves off to the WNW then NW. A short-wave trough is forecasted to start digging down across the midwest and into the southern states in about 5 days. That will cause this low to eventually move north and then NE as it gets caught by the trough.

Note this is a "classic" mid to late October setup. What has happened in the MDR in 2006 is NO reflection on what could happen in the Western Caribbean albeit a moderate El nino may ameloriate the possibility of anything too catastrophic for the US. Watch the Western Caribbean over the next 7-10 days. If nothing forms by halloween I would say the threat has diminished. But until then we can't let our guard down despite how bleak 2006 has been for homegrown systems - in my opinion the Western Caribbean has been way too quiet this year.

[hurricanetrack]

We are certainly about to find out. This is it, after this, the season is done landfall threat-wise. Might see another distant Atlantic storm or two to pad the numbers, but that's about it. The last shot at a newsmaker system is in the works- or not. We'll know in a week.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just checked the latest 12Z NOGAPS run for today and it looks like it has dropped the low entirely this run compared to the last couple runs. Im not totally sure about this, but it appears to barely show this low now, if at all. Somebody please confirm this because Im not totally sure just by looking at the graphics:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_atlantic

<RICKY>