SW Indian Ocean: Invest 91S

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:24 pm

17/2030 UTC 4.4S 62.1E T2.0/2.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean

"Anita" could form in the next 24 hours.

#2 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:30 pm

I've been following this, however RSMC La Reunion do not appear too concerned by this system at the moment. The MetArea bulletin only calls for a 15kt maximum sustained wind over the next 24 hours (down from 15-20kts earlier).

Typhoon_Willie · #3 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:08 pm

JTWC has just upgraded the chances of this system becoming a tropical cyclone within 24 hours to "Fair". Looks pretty good to me! JTWC also points out that there is a vigorous poleward outflow channel with this system.

Chacor · #4 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 12:31 am

Quite equatorial. Another area, 92P is also equatorial (2 deg S).

#5 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 4:26 am

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (SOUTH) ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES MAURITIUS ON WEDNESDAY 18 OCTOBER 2006 AT 0005 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PART 2 : SYNOPSIS, WEDNESDAY 18 OCTOBER 2006 - 0000 UTC.

LOW 1007 HPA NEAR 05S 62E.

FRONTAL AXIS ALONG 31S 32E, 35S 40E, 42S 55E, 50S 71E.

HIGH 1035 HPA NEAR 35S 80E.

PART 3 : AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

SOUTH WEST 8/1 : EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20. SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

REMAINDER 8/1 : EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20
STRENGTHENING LOCALLY TO 25 GUSTING 35. SEA LOCALLY ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

8/2 : EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 20 STRENGTHENING
LOCALLY TO 25 GUSTING 40. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

8/3 : EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 LOCALLY GUSTING
30-40. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
EXTREME NORTH WEST.

8/4 : EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20 STRENGTHENING LOCALLY TO 25 GUSTING
30-40. SEA MODERATE TO ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WEST 8/5 : CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15 AROUND LOW NEAR 05S 62E. SEA
LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS.

EAST 8/5, 8/6 : EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15 BECOMING
SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME NORTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
UNDER SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN EAST 8/5.

8/7 : SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN
NORTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH UNDER SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN EAST.

TIME OF ORIGIN : 18/0005 UTC=

END=

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:06 am

Meso · #7 Postby **Meso** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:05 am

Oh and so the season near my part of the world starts (although it will never affect me) Yay.

Chacor · #8 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:49 am

Doesn't look all that good now...

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 2:55 pm

Latest!!!

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 6:46 am

First numbered system of the year. 25kts, 1004hPa at the moment.

Jeudi, 19 octobre 2006, 10h47 (UTC+4)

BULLETIN DU 19 OCTOBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA.
POSITION LE 19 OCTOBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 2.9 SUD / 59.1 EST
(DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2030 KM AU NORD
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 2S/59E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 2.3S/60E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 3.5S/58.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 16H30.

#11 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:45 pm

01R only lasted two advisories and was then dropped.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:33 pm

ONE TO SAY "HI," THE OTHER TO SAY "BYE.!!! :uarrow:

"

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:54 pm

20/0300 UTC 4.0S 60.4E T1.5/1.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean

Not completely out just yet!!!

Chacor · #14 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:31 am

Did you see the initial time on that map? 19/16h (1200 UTC yesterday). And it isn't expected to become more than a perturbation tropicale. :wink:

#15 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 7:22 am

This says it is the last advisory (As did the one yesterday) but the public advisory says there will be an update this time tomorrow.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2006/10/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E
(THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/10/21 00 UTC: 04.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/10/21 12 UTC: 05.5S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/10/22 00 UTC: 06.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2006/10/22 12 UTC: 07.4S/57.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 08.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 08.3S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IS NOW
TOTALLY
EXPOSED NORTHEASTWARDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS FLUCTUATING.
NORTHEASTERLY MODERATE WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO
EQUATORIAL INFLOW.
WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS,
TRACKING
AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

Chacor · #16 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:01 am

TCFA cancelled at 20/1330:

WTXS21 PGTW 201330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180851ZOCT06//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321Z OCT 06//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 191330). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.9S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
3.3S 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 970 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU,
SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 200341Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTED ISOLATED, POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED MODERATE,
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:40 am

21/10/2006 06:00 58.20 6.30 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1004 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h

This image is old and since it has deteriorated.

Chacor · #18 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:44 am

Hmm, they've resumed six-hourly advisories. They expect a TD out of this at least.

Chacor · #19 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 6:10 am

I don't get it, why are Réunion calling for pertubation tropicale in their advisories in 24h when their graphic forecast calls for a dépression?

#20 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 6:24 am

As you say none of the advisories are calling for anything more than a tropical disturbance.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2006/10/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E
(SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/10/21 18 UTC: 07.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/10/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/10/22 18 UTC: 08.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 09.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN
YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS
FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL
WIND
SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY.

THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

SW Indian Ocean: Invest 91S

SW Indian Ocean: Invest 91S

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