C/SC Texas weather thread - a cold, wet Easter

[Portastorm]

Heads up Central and South-Central Texas ... looks like we may have some severe storms breaking out ahead of tonight's front!

The Storm Prediction Center just issued a mesoscale discussion for our area. Link below:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2137.html

[double D]

It has been very muggy here in Fredericksburg today. Dewpoints in the 70's and temps. in the mid. 80's. Lots of fuel for the fire.

At least it looks like we will have some nice cool, dry weather for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

BTW: just read the San Angelo NWS discussion and said that the atmosphere in central Texas is becoming quite unstable. Should be interesting.

[Kelarie]

Just in...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 836 310 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXC019-029-031-053-091-137-171-209-259-265-271-299-323-325-385-
453-463-491-507-190300-


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 836 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

BANDERA BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET COMAL EDWARDS
GILLESPIE HAYS KENDALL
KERR KINNEY LLANO
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
ZAVALA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...BANDERA...BLANCO...
BOERNE...BRACKETTVILLE...BURNET...CRYSTAL CITY...EAGLE PASS...
FREDERICKSBURG...GEORGETOWN...HONDO...KERRVILLE...LEAKEY...
LLANO...NEW BRAUNFELS...ROCKSPRINGS...SAN ANTONIO...
SAN MARCOS AND UVALDE.

[double D]

and let the fun begin.

[Portastorm]

I couldn't believe how muggy it got from this morning 'til lunchtime, when I went out. We've got a 72-degree dew point right now ... plenty of water in the air, ready to be rung out!

Fuel for the fire, BIG TIME!

Here's the language from SPC:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST OF
HONDO TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TX THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SURFACE HEATING/MOISTENING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT
IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SUPERCELL/HAIL
THREAT GIVEN RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES/WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE 600
MB...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. STILL...THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

[Portastorm]

Hey DoubleD, as of 3:40 pm, looks like those storms are firing up about 30 miles west of you. Let us know how things are out there.

[double D]

storms are starting to fire in northwest Gillespie county. Looking outside there is some pretty big cumulus clouds starting to build to my northwest. . I wonder if the cold front is begining to move in?

[Kelarie]

I heard that Mason was in under a warning. Buckle in peeps, the ride is starting....

[Yankeegirl]

Great, that means by the time it moves into the Houston area, its going to be an overnight event..I hate those!!!

[jasons2k]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
415 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXC319-182145-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-061018T2145Z/
MASON TX-
415 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MASON COUNTY...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR STREETER...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF MASON...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KOOCKVILLE AND MASON BY 425 PM CDT
STREETER BY 430 PM CDT
THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 29 AND RANCH ROAD 1222 BY 445 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3055 9946 3055 9925 3089 9913 3089 9949

[double D]

Hey DoubleD, as of 3:40 pm, looks like those storms are firing up about 30 miles west of you. Let us know how things are out there.

As quick as the clouds started to build they are know starting to dissapate some. It looks like the indvidual storms are moving northeast while the storm system is moving southeast. We will have to watch out for storms that start to train in the same area.

Hopefully the storms will not hit Austin/San Antonio until after rush hour.

[JenBayles]

Hey DoubleD - we're heading up your way this Friday to Fredericksburg with another couple. We'll be staying at the Hog Stop Inn on 290 - right down the road from Luckenbach. I'm thinking we'll be a tad chilly on the motor-sickle ride home.

And Portastorm - thanks for starting up another regional discussion thread.

[double D]

Hey DoubleD - we're heading up your way this Friday to Fredericksburg with another couple. We'll be staying at the Hog Stop Inn on 290 - right down the road from Luckenbach. I'm thinking we'll be a tad chilly on the motor-sickle ride home.

And Portastorm - thanks for starting up another regional discussion thread.

It should be a beautiful weekend with highs in the upper 60's and lows in the upper 40's with low humidity. I think we all deserve a nice weekend considering what type of weather we have had lately.

Hope you enjoy your trip

[double D]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC299-182300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0282.061018T2158Z-061018T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
458 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
LLANO

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LLANO...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KINGSLAND BY 600 PM CDT

THIS STORM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LLANO COUNTY. MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 16 AND FM 965.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3063 9891 3050 9895 3053 9841 3074 9847

$$

[Portastorm]

Hey DoubleD - we're heading up your way this Friday to Fredericksburg with another couple. We'll be staying at the Hog Stop Inn on 290 - right down the road from Luckenbach. I'm thinking we'll be a tad chilly on the motor-sickle ride home.

And Portastorm - thanks for starting up another regional discussion thread.

Hey, sure thing! I figured there were enough of us to keep it active and plus, our weather here usually ends up being your weather a few hours later anyhow!

[Portastorm]

DoubleD -- looks like a very strong cell north of Fredericksburg and one to your west.

[double D]

That one to our north is severe and moving to the east. We will have to see if it holds together and reaches Austin or not.

Just as I type the breeze is starting to come out of the north. I'm starting to wonder if I will see any rain.

[JenBayles]

This just in...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXC053-190015-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0284.000000T0000Z-061019T0015Z/
BURNET TX-
705 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR BURNET COUNTY...

AT 700 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BRIGGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OAKALLA AREA BY 715 PM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3093 9812 3070 9804 3092 9787 3103 9793

$$

[JenBayles]

And another.

Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
TXC027-190300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 822 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
FROM A THUNDERSTORM IN MORGAN`S POINT. AT LEAST ONE HOME HAS BEEN
EVACUATED DUE TO RISING WATERS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TROY...
TEMPLE...NOLANVILLE...MORGAN`S POINT RESORT AND BELTON

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3083 9747 3079 9733 3100 9710 3126 9728
3132 9743 3117 9772

[Portastorm]

Brrr ... now that the rain has ended. It's 56 degrees and cloudy this morning in Austin. Definitely feels like fall!!