A laugh in these pleasantly quiet times.

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Jim Cantore

A laugh in these pleasantly quiet times.

#1 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Oct 20, 2006 5:11 pm

Some old funny NHC discussion lines.

Hurricane Lili 2002

A VERY INTERESTING EVENT OCCURRED WITH LILI IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY TO A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED. THERE WILL BE MANY EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE FACT...AND PERHAPS MANY PHD DISSERTATIONS. I AM GLAD THERE WILL BE SOME.

FOR WHATEVER REASON...LILI WEAKENED...AND MADE LANDFALL ON THE
RAINEY REFUGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF VERMILLION BAY AROUND 1400 UTC WITH 85 KNOT WINDS

Hurricane Kyle 2002

KYLE IS POISED TO ENTER THE TOP TEN LIST OF LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. WITH THIS ADVISORY...KYLE HAS BEEN IN EXISTENCE FOR 17.5 DAYS...PUTTING IT AT NUMBER 11. THE CURRENT TOP TEN IS GIVEN BELOW...THANKS TO ERIC BLAKE. PERHAPS THE MERE COMPILATION OF THIS LIST WILL MAKE KYLE GO AWAY...

OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER

HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE. JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KYLE...AND I HOPE
THERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES

Tropical Storm Mindy 2003

NANO NANO...NANO NANO...HEY HEY...GOODBYE

Tropical Storm Peter 2003

PETER HAS BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE ONLY
INTERMITTENT AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...AND WITH ANY LUCK...THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON.

Hurricane Alberto 2000

THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THE CURRENT HICCUP IN THE
CONVECTION

AFTER 68 ADVISORIES...WHAT CAN YOU SAY ABOUT ALBERTO THAT HASNT ALREADY BEEN SAID.

JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE ALBERTO WAS HISTORY...IT DEVELOPED A LITTLE BURST OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIVES ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

780 MILES...1255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND.

And the two storms famous for these types of quotes

Hurricane Epsilon 2005

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS

THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN HE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER ...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE.

BY THEN EPSILON SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS... ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID THIS AFTERNOON.

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.

SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT
NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE...

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE

I HOPE THIS IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.

Tropical Storm Zeta 2005

ZETA IS ROUGHLY HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM

ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH ALIVE AT THIS TIME

I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.

ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR AWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ZETA HAS THUS FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.

ALL I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY

ALTHOUGH YOU'VE HEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE TOMORROW.

I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT THINGS TO SAY.

ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.

ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AS IF ZETA WILL NEVER DIE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ENDED.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005... FINALLY.
Last edited by Jim Cantore on Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Oct 20, 2006 6:13 pm

those are some pretty good quotes...nothing as frustrating as Epsilon/Zeta this year though...thank God...
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#3 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:02 pm

NOTE - THE FOLLOWING ARE NOT REAL

ALTHOUGH THE SEASON IS OVER...CRIKEY FOR THE LBAR'S UNUSUALLY STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

STATEMENT AS OF DECEMBER 1ST, 2007
2006 MARKS THE BEST YEAR OF THE LBAR'S ENTIRE EXISTANCE...WITH THE MODEL FEATURING AN UNUSUALLY IMPRESSIVE PERFORMANCE...ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE CAPRICIOUSNESS OF THE SEASON'S STORMS.

AVILA
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#4 Postby lester » Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:08 pm

OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER

SO... UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005... FINALLY.

:jump:
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#5 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:13 pm

lester88 wrote:SO... UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK...



I didn't put it past her. :wink:
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#6 Postby lester » Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:16 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
lester88 wrote:SO... UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK...



I didn't put it past her. :wink:

lol..me neither
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Jim Cantore

#7 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:36 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:NOTE - THE FOLLOWING ARE NOT REAL

ALTHOUGH THE SEASON IS OVER...CRIKEY FOR THE LBAR'S UNUSUALLY STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

STATEMENT AS OF DECEMBER 1ST, 2007
2006 MARKS THE BEST YEAR OF THE LBAR'S ENTIRE EXISTANCE...WITH THE MODEL FEATURING AN UNUSUALLY IMPRESSIVE PERFORMANCE...ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE CAPRICIOUSNESS OF THE SEASON'S STORMS.

AVILA


THE LBARS UNUSUALLY STELLAR PERFORMANCE CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE STELLAR LACK OF STORMS. 8-) :lol:
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#8 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:16 pm

There's a whole bunch we keep somewhere on Wikipedia...

Emily 05

So far, the 2005 hurricane season seems to have little interest in climatology. (Franklin)

Of course, there's also all the jokes related to Franklin 05

Franklin, the storm, not the forecaster has become a little better organized overnight. (Franklin)
It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin, the storm, not the forecaster, in 2-3 days. (Franklin)
Franklin continues to move erratically, taking one step backwards for every few steps forward. (Pasch)

Harvey 05

This is also not the most tropical of tropical cyclones. (Franklin)

Vince 05

As the short happy life of Vince is now over, this will be the last advisory. (Franklin)

TD 16-E 05

This will be final advisory... Part deux... on this system. (Stewart)

Olivia 06

Olivia is having a bad hair day in terms of maintaining status as a tropical cyclone... (Stewart)

Kyle 02

KYLE REFUSES TO GO AWAY...BUT NEITHER DOES IT WANT TO MAINTAIN ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. (Stewart)

THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE MORE TIME. WILL KYLE MAKE YET ANOTHER COMEBACK? (Pasch)

LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAVORING KYLE...ASSUMING IT SURVIVES...MOVING BACK OVER THE WATER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLEARLY KYLE HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR UP TO NOW. (Pasch)

AT 21.5 DAYS...KYLE IS NOW NUMBER THREE ON THE ATLANTIC BASIN LONGEVITY LIST... IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT KYLE CAN MAKE IT TO NUMBER TWO. (Franklin)
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#9 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:10 pm

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION
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#10 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:24 pm

Some funy stuff for hurricane advisories. :lol: I wonder what are the most doom and gloom advisories? :eek:
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#11 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:19 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Some funy stuff for hurricane advisories. :lol: I wonder what are the most doom and gloom advisories? :eek:


I really can't find one, not even with Katrina, heres the closest NHC line to that I can find.

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

But I have a NWS report that should fit the category

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
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#12 Postby lester » Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:24 pm

^^^
now that was scary
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Jim Cantore

#13 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:34 pm

Sends a chill down my spine.
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#14 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:58 pm

MY PREDICTION FOR THIS STORM?
PAIN.

-FORECASTER LANG
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#15 Postby fci » Sat Oct 21, 2006 12:46 am

I remember that Katrina message and it was so scary it seemed surreal
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#16 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 21, 2006 1:04 am

Reading forecasts with Hurricane Katrina as a Category 5 monster scared me. :eek:
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#17 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:24 am

Hurricane_Apu wrote:MY PREDICTION FOR THIS STORM?
PAIN.

-FORECASTER LANG


What storm is that from?
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