Tropical Depression Sergio=Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

Invest 96E

The EPAC is still poping up systems,even if it's mid november.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962006) ON 20061112 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061112 1200 061113 0000 061113 1200 061114 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 102.1W 12.1N 104.4W 13.8N 106.0W 15.2N 106.8W
BAMM 10.7N 102.1W 11.8N 104.3W 12.9N 106.1W 14.0N 107.6W
LBAR 10.7N 102.1W 12.3N 104.4W 14.3N 106.0W 16.2N 107.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061114 1200 061115 1200 061116 1200 061117 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 106.8W 14.8N 106.6W 15.1N 107.3W 18.5N 108.9W
BAMM 14.5N 108.4W 13.7N 109.6W 12.8N 111.0W 13.6N 111.6W
LBAR 17.3N 107.3W 17.2N 107.0W 18.0N 106.5W 21.1N 106.2W
SHIP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 78KTS
DSHP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 102.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 99.2W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 96.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NONAME]

Wow the model runs on this one are amazing for november in the pacific, bringing it up to 78 Kt that is amazing holy cow 90Mph Hurricane in November(don't get me wrong it just amazing models bring it up that high with the month were in not that it will happen but it does show the conditions will be there for now).

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121719
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 12 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962006) ON 20061112 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061112 1800 061113 0600 061113 1800 061114 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 100.1W 12.4N 102.1W 13.5N 103.6W 14.2N 104.7W
BAMM 11.2N 100.1W 12.2N 101.9W 13.1N 103.5W 13.9N 104.9W
LBAR 11.2N 100.1W 12.4N 101.9W 14.0N 103.4W 15.0N 104.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061114 1800 061115 1800 061116 1800 061117 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 105.2W 12.3N 105.9W 12.3N 107.2W 15.1N 108.3W
BAMM 14.2N 105.8W 13.7N 107.2W 14.1N 109.6W 15.0N 112.1W
LBAR 15.6N 105.7W 15.2N 107.3W 16.3N 108.4W 18.9N 109.0W
SHIP 51KTS 67KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 51KTS 67KTS 75KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 100.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 98.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 95.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 122336
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SUN NOV 12 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HurricaneBill]

If Sergio formed, this would be the first EPAC season to have an "S" storm since 1992.

1992 is noteworthy as the most active EPAC season. All the names were used that year from Agatha to Zeke.

[wxmann_91]

18Z GFDL...FWIW...lol

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962006) ON 20061113 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061113 0000 061113 1200 061114 0000 061114 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 100.5W 12.7N 102.5W 13.8N 104.0W 14.5N 104.9W
BAMM 11.4N 100.5W 12.4N 102.5W 13.3N 104.0W 14.0N 105.2W
LBAR 11.4N 100.5W 12.5N 102.0W 13.9N 103.2W 14.8N 104.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061115 0000 061116 0000 061117 0000 061118 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 105.0W 14.0N 104.8W 16.2N 105.9W 19.7N 108.0W
BAMM 14.2N 105.8W 14.0N 106.7W 15.4N 108.9W 16.9N 111.7W
LBAR 15.1N 104.4W 15.2N 104.9W 17.9N 104.5W 21.0N 104.0W
SHIP 51KTS 66KTS 71KTS 68KTS
DSHP 51KTS 66KTS 71KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 100.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 99.4W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 97.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Chacor]

Amazing, as said above, that for mid-November the GFDL expects a major hurricane in the EPac that may threaten land. Also amazing enough that SHIPS expects a minimal hurricane, for that matter.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 131103
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 13 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

IT SEEMS LIKELY 21E IS ON THE WAY!!!

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 131725
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST MON NOV 13 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


HURAKAN,you are right.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962006) ON 20061113 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061113 1800 061114 0600 061114 1800 061115 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 103.5W 12.9N 104.9W 13.3N 105.8W 13.3N 106.1W
BAMM 12.2N 103.5W 12.9N 104.8W 13.1N 105.7W 13.1N 106.2W
LBAR 12.2N 103.5W 13.1N 104.7W 14.1N 105.6W 14.5N 106.2W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061115 1800 061116 1800 061117 1800 061118 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 106.2W 14.5N 107.1W 16.9N 109.5W 18.6N 112.6W
BAMM 12.9N 106.6W 13.6N 108.0W 15.0N 110.1W 15.7N 112.4W
LBAR 14.8N 106.4W 16.4N 105.9W 19.5N 104.8W 21.1N 103.4W
SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 68KTS 65KTS
DSHP 56KTS 67KTS 68KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 103.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 101.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 100.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 132341
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST MON NOV 13 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH




It's on the virge to TD status.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962006) ON 20061114 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061114 0000 061114 1200 061115 0000 061115 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 104.0W 13.4N 105.4W 13.7N 106.2W 13.8N 106.5W
BAMM 12.7N 104.0W 13.4N 105.3W 13.6N 106.2W 13.6N 106.6W
LBAR 12.7N 104.0W 13.8N 105.2W 14.6N 106.0W 15.0N 106.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061116 0000 061117 0000 061118 0000 061119 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 106.6W 15.9N 107.5W 18.1N 109.9W 19.7N 112.8W
BAMM 13.4N 107.1W 14.3N 108.6W 15.4N 110.9W 16.0N 113.2W
LBAR 15.3N 106.1W 17.5N 104.9W 20.5N 103.3W 22.9N 100.5W
SHIP 57KTS 65KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 57KTS 65KTS 64KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 100.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No TD tonight.

[Chacor]

If we do get a TD, it will be our first 21-E since when?

[Cyclenall]

It's now 21E.NONAME on the NRL page. We have a tropical depression now which is no surprise. The feature was showing signs of banding and cyclonic spinning.

[Coredesat]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140441
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
1000 PM PDT MON NOV 13 2006

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND BANDING FEATURES ARE STARTING
TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH WOULD REVERSE THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BELOW THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE SINCE WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT MODEL IS DIAGNOSING
STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/7. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE BOTH A POOR
INITIALIZATION AND AN UNREALISTIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY
SEEM TO OVEREMPHASIZE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET IS TO FORECAST A SLOW...AND GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...
MOTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0500Z 12.9N 104.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.0N 105.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 106.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 106.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[AnnularCane]

The NHC seems to be calling it STORM FULLNAME for some reason.

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 140843
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
200 AM PDT TUE NOV 14 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. A SMALL AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER AT THE END OF A
BAND THAT WRAPS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 25 KT FOR AFWA. BASED ON THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION TO 300/5. IT IS EMBEDDED
IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY TROUGHS CROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES TO CREATE A LIGHT NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.
SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE DEPRESSION WOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND INDEED THE GFDL CALLS A LOOPING TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD NEAR CLARION ISLAND AND BECOME
A CUT-OFF LOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACQUIRE A
FASTER NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFDL
FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO REACH CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IN 96-108
HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE
TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 15N NEAR THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS
MODEL FORECAST IT TO PEAK JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60-72
HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN
PREVIOUSLY...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FIRST...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR ACCORDING TO
THE INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL. SECOND...ANY MOTION THAT
DELAYS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE STRONGER SHEAR NORTH OF 15N WOULD
ALLOW IT MORE TIME IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE SYSTEM
COULD GET CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST HERE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.0N 104.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.2N 105.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 13.6N 105.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.9N 105.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 14.4N 106.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 107.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Next name Sergio, last used 1982.