SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

JenBayles · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:06 am

Figures - I finally got Dave to clean up a good 4 weeks' worth of tree trash, and it'll all be back by this time tomorrow. :lol:

Yankeegirl · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:19 am

Jen, Havent seen ya on lately... How are ya? ready for tomorrows storms?

jasons · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:50 am

The wind here today has blown debris - lots of pine needles, etc. - all over the yard. Looking forward to some t-storms tomorrow - hopefully not too severe.

Lindaloo · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:57 am

Yankeegirl wrote:

Jen, Havent seen ya on lately... How are ya? ready for tomorrows storms?

She had LOTS of dishes to handwash. :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 2:49 am

Latest SPC Day 1 outlook has a 30% risk of wind, 30% risk of hail and a 5% risk of tornadoes for all of SE Texas.

Here is the latest discussion from the SPC:

Quote:

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF COAST....

THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
MORE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES... ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND...THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE SOUTHERN
CLOSED LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER...OVER SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO EARLY TODAY...WILL REFORM OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG...BUT WEAKENING...MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT...AS THEY
PROGRESS THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...A 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION CONTINUES. MOISTENING AIR MASS AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEAR LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS... THOUGH...AND THIS
MAY TEMPER SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

HOWEVER...LATEST RAOBS INDICATE A CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG...ALBEIT
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
A BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING BY DAYBREAK...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO THE PECOS VALLEY...CONCENTRATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 700 MB
COOLING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS
ACTIVITY VERY SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION
ABOVE THE WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST VEERING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
PRONOUNCED...HODOGRAPHS APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
BEFORE UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND ADVANCES
EASTWARD ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT...TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
AND TEXAS COAST. DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A THREAT WITH
THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND...A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY WHERE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTS A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL
AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_1200.gif

southerngale · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 7:12 am

Quote:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-291245-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
431 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...STORM SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH LATE TODAY WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ON AREA LAKES AND BAYS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
SAME LOCATION...KNOWN AS TRAINING...SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE OVER SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENT.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MORNING.

VERY HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SOME OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO BRING THESE
HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST STATEMENTS ON
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS.

ALSO THE LATEST FORECASTS...WARNINGS AND RADAR PICTURES ARE
AVAILABLE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.

$$

wxman22 · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 9:52 am

Look at the latest tornado risk..... :eek:

jasons · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 11:15 am

Excellent discussion from the NWS Houston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP. CURRENT RAOBS/ACARS SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A STRONG (4C) CAP IN PLACE STARTING AROUND 800MB. THE
AREA IS BLANKETED WITH CLOUDS NEAR THIS LEVEL AND CAN BE SEEN ON
SPLIT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY WELL OUT INTO THE GULF. VERY
STRONG WAA UNDERWAY PROFILERS AND AREA 88D RADARS SHOWING 35+ KNOT
SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN RACING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION SINCE AROUND 06Z. THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NV WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVED STEADILY
SOUTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z THURSDAY THEN CAME TO A SCREECHING
HALT. IT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A 100-120KT JET MOVES FROM
THE BACKSIDE AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT-
LIFT WILL COME TO BEAR ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS A LITTLE MORE. PW ONLY RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH THIS
MORNING SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5" THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CAP FROM ABOVE EXPECT TO SEE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL AS INTENSITY. THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND IF
THE WINDS REMAIN AS BACKED AS THEY ARE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN
THE LEAST TO SEE ISOLATED TORNADOES DEVELOP AFTER 1 OR 2 PM.
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INSTABILITY (LI -2 TO -5 /
CAPE 1000-2000J/KG) WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF HAIL AND
PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF MICROBURSTS (AGGRAVATED BY THE FAST
STORM MOTION 35+KTS.) TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A LARGE LINEAR MCS TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING WIND AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE IS STILL IFFY BUT SHOULD BE INTO THE CWA
BETWEEN 00-06Z...EASTERN ZONES AROUND 12Z. AM EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS A LEWP DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. AS IF THIS ISN`T BAD ENOUGH...WITH THE HIGH PW AIR-
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF SMALL CLUSTERS-HP SUPERCELLS WE COULD
SEE SOME INTENSE RAINFALL RATES BUT THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY THE
FAST MOTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT THE AREA SHOULD EASILY GET 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME
CORES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DRY WESTERLY AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. PACIFIC
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR 3 DAYS (SHOULD BE A VERY
PLEASANT NEW YEARS DAY) BEFORE RETREATING AND A COLDER AIRMASS
DROPS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT FOLLOWS A SIMILAR COURSE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF 00Z RUN
OVER THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

jasons · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 11:17 am

NWS Houston, TX
Point Forecast: The Woodlands, TX

Today: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 72. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 57. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

JenBayles · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 11:43 am

schlitz - they're really going out on a limb on this event, huh? Looks like it'll actually verify too! Guess I'd better get the ark ready...

JenBayles · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:07 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:

Jen, Havent seen ya on lately... How are ya? ready for tomorrows storms?

Hey Lisa! Just haven't had a whole lot of time to get on the computer, and up til now, the weather has been so boring just haven't had much to say about. Looks like we may actually get a pounding tonite. Whoo hoooo!!! :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:09 pm

The one thing that interests me the most is when the NWS says they expect a "widespread" wind event with the squall line. I wonder if this means it could reach derecho status?

KatDaddy · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:13 pm

I am expecting a moderate risk to be issued later today. This looks to be one of the most signifcant and widespread severe weather events in quite sometime. Storms already firing across SE TX. Everyone in the Houston-Galveston areas hold on for the wild ride.

wxman22 · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:23 pm

It'll be intresting if they upgrade to a moderate risk with a 10% Tornado chance and 30% Wind and hail chance were right on the borderline of a moderate risk....

jasons · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:04 pm

KatDaddy wrote:

I am expecting a moderate risk to be issued later today. This looks to be one of the most signifcant and widespread severe weather events in quite sometime. Storms already firing across SE TX. Everyone in the Houston-Galveston areas hold on for the wild ride.

Hey KatDaddy, I agree - looking at the water vapor loop it looks like this low means business. I was looking outside as well and you can see the shear between the low and mid-levels. I hope people take notice and watch the weather closely today. Unfortunately, HP rain-wrapped nighttime tornadoes can be the most deadly because they catch people off guard.

KatDaddy · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:27 pm

Yes they are. Models slowing this system down a little more. If that trend continues look for a Flash Flood Watch. The clouds are sailing by in downtown Houston. Very dangerous weather about to start unfolding.

wxman22 · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:42 pm

SPC UPDATE:

1053 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU TONIGHT ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORTEX LOCATED OVER S
CENTRAL NM/EXTREME W TX THIS MORNING WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SERN U.S. IN ADDITION...NEXT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE SERN GULF OF ALASKA APPROACHING WRN CANADA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN CENTRAL TX THEN SEWD
ACROSS SERN TX. THE STRONG VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/NEWD INTO W TX/WRN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SPREADING EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
U.S.

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

COMBINATION OF STRONG VORTEX AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS POISES A COMPLEX SITUATION
IN THE WAY OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55
KT EXTENDS FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS PROVIDING
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX NWD ACROSS THE REGION. SSWLY MID LEVEL JET
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NWD OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...BUT A STRONGER 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET NOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE VORTEX WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH AND PUNCH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAKES THIS SITUATION SO COMPLEX. QUESTION NOW WILL BE HOW
MANY DISCRETE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE THIS SAME QUESTION AS THE NAM REALLY DESTABILIZES S
CENTRAL TX /RE KSAT 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING/ WHILE THE RUC IS NOT SO
BULLISH. IN ANY CASE...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG FORCING THAT WILL PUNCH EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LEAF INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COUPLE WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW ENHANCING SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS JUST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE MOSTLY S OF THE DFW METROPLEX THRU SAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MAIN MID
LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
YET MARGINAL INSTABILITY... WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES.
A SECONDARY AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE PARTS OF SERN TX WHERE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PULL A WEAK BOUNDARY NWD. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR JUST S OF THE TX COASTLINE WITH MUCAPE
TO 2500 J/KG. WOULD SUSPECT THAT AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE SERN TX COASTAL AREA...AND GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
..MCCARTHY.. 12/29/2006
[/img]

*edited by southerngale to make the image static

Extremeweatherguy · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:46 pm

Quote:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291742Z - 292015Z

GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVER REGION BOUNDED BY MWL...DFW...TYR...HOU...AND SAT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE FOR POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...ISOLATED HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES.

17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM
ABI...JCT...40 SE DRT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
--10-15 KT...BENEATH STRONGLY MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC
PROFILES. STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM COLD
FRONTAL/OCCLUSION POINT NEAR ABI SEWD TO BETWEEN AUS-ACT...THE SSEWD
PAST HOU/GLS AREA. WARM FRONT SHOULD DRIFT/PROPAGATE NWD. WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND BUOYANT OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM COMBINATION OF
WAA...MOIST ADVECTION AND MUTED DIABATIC SFC HEATING. RELATED
WEAKENING OF CINH WILL PERMIT CONVECTION TO DEEPEN VERTICALLY...AND
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS TO BECOME ROOTED AT SFC...BASED ON TIME
SERIES OF RUC AND WRF FCST SOUNDINGS. MLCAPES 500-1200 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON...AMIDST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.

CYCLONIC SHEAR ALREADY HAS BEEN NOTED IN RELATIVELY SHALLOW
CONVECTION NEAR TX COAST...AND ROTATION POTENTIAL REGIONALLY WILL
INCREASE WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING OF CONVECTION...LOSS OF SBCINH AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS TREND WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEARS AND 300-600 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. DISCRETE SUPERCELL
PROBABILITY IS GREATEST IN FREE WARM SECTOR...E OF RELATIVELY STRONG
BAND OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. TSTMS CROSSING WARM
FRONT MAY HAVE ENHANCED TORNADO PROBABILITIES...AS THEY INTERACT
WITH ASSOCIATED RELATIVE PEAK OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...SHEAR AND
ASCENT.

Looks like our first watch could be coming out at any time.

wxman22 · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:47 pm

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A SQUALL LINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO OUR MORE MORE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE UNDER 1/2 INCH DUE TO
FAST STORM SPEEDS. HIGHER AMOUNTS...POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES. ISOLATED 3 TO
[b]5 INCH TOTALS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 45. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS.[/b]

THE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL COME TO AN
END BEFORE NOON ON SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

$$

Extremeweatherguy · **Posted:** Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:50 pm

It feels like we are going through a TD or weak TS out there this afternoon. Strong wind gusts to 25-35mph (especially in the showers), on and off rain and fast moving clouds. You can really just "feel" that something big is coming.

Going to be an interesting day..

SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

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