INVEST 97E

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Chacor
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INVEST 97E

#1 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 18, 2006 8:18 pm

18/2330 UTC 10.5N 114.7W TOO WEAK 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SERGIO...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Code: Select all

845
WHXX01 KMIA 190030
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (EP972006) ON 20061119  0000 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061119  0000   061119  1200   061120  0000   061120  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    10.6N 114.6W   11.3N 114.0W   12.0N 113.3W   12.5N 112.8W
  BAMM    10.6N 114.6W   11.3N 114.3W   11.7N 114.0W   11.8N 113.9W
  LBAR    10.6N 114.6W   11.0N 114.5W   11.8N 114.3W   13.0N 114.0W
  SHIP        25KTS          25KTS          26KTS          29KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          26KTS          29KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061121  0000   061122  0000   061123  0000   061124  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.1N 112.4W   15.6N 112.8W   19.2N 112.1W   19.6N 109.6W
  BAMM    11.8N 113.8W   12.2N 114.7W   12.2N 117.2W   11.5N 121.8W
  LBAR    14.0N 113.6W   16.5N 112.3W   17.3N 111.1W   18.0N 111.3W
  SHIP        34KTS          41KTS          50KTS          52KTS
  DSHP        34KTS          41KTS          50KTS          52KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  10.6N LONCUR = 114.6W DIRCUR =  90DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
  LATM12 =  10.5N LONM12 = 114.8W DIRM12 = 109DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
  LATM24 =  10.9N LONM24 = 115.2W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$


SHIPS is calling for a pretty strong tropical storm for late November...
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#2 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 19, 2006 3:07 am

19/0600 UTC 10.3N 114.5W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

052
WHXX01 KMIA 190731
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972006) ON 20061119 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061119 0600 061119 1800 061120 0600 061120 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 114.4W 11.1N 113.7W 11.6N 113.0W 12.2N 112.3W
BAMM 10.6N 114.4W 11.0N 114.1W 11.2N 113.6W 11.3N 113.3W
LBAR 10.6N 114.4W 11.1N 114.0W 12.0N 113.7W 13.1N 113.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061121 0600 061122 0600 061123 0600 061124 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 111.7W 16.0N 111.4W 19.2N 109.6W 19.4N 106.4W
BAMM 11.5N 113.0W 12.2N 113.4W 11.8N 115.9W 11.3N 120.7W
LBAR 14.1N 112.6W 16.1N 111.0W 17.0N 109.7W 18.1N 108.9W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 114.4W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 114.7W DIRM12 = 63DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 115.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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Coredesat

#3 Postby Coredesat » Sun Nov 19, 2006 3:57 am

Image

Looks better now; it was devoid of convection a few hours ago.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2006 8:16 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972006) ON 20061119 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061119 1200 061120 0000 061120 1200 061121 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 114.7W 11.2N 114.4W 11.9N 114.4W 12.9N 114.5W
BAMM 10.7N 114.7W 11.1N 114.7W 11.4N 115.0W 11.9N 115.3W
LBAR 10.7N 114.7W 10.8N 114.6W 11.6N 114.7W 12.9N 114.5W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061121 1200 061122 1200 061123 1200 061124 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 114.7W 17.4N 115.5W 20.4N 114.7W 22.1N 110.3W
BAMM 12.3N 115.9W 13.0N 117.5W 13.1N 120.6W 14.1N 124.6W
LBAR 14.1N 114.2W 16.6N 112.9W 17.1N 111.0W 17.5N 110.0W
SHIP 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS 41KTS
DSHP 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 114.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 114.6W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 114.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The ship and DSHP downgrade the intensity after 96 hours from the past run that was a little more stronger.
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#5 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 19, 2006 8:24 am

19/1200 UTC 10.6N 114.8W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#6 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:22 am

It's looking good. From NHC.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
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#7 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 19, 2006 9:08 pm

SHIPS no longer expects development.

331
WHXX01 KMIA 200045
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972006) ON 20061120 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061120 0000 061120 1200 061121 0000 061121 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 114.4W 12.0N 114.7W 12.9N 115.2W 14.2N 115.9W
BAMM 11.5N 114.4W 11.9N 115.3W 12.3N 116.2W 12.9N 117.2W
LBAR 11.5N 114.4W 12.0N 114.5W 12.9N 114.6W 14.1N 114.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061122 0000 061123 0000 061124 0000 061125 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 116.4W 18.7N 116.8W 21.2N 116.5W 23.9N 110.0W
BAMM 13.4N 118.3W 14.4N 120.8W 15.5N 124.1W 16.9N 127.3W
LBAR 14.6N 114.2W 15.8N 113.8W 15.0N 114.2W 14.5N 114.9W
SHIP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 20KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 114.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 114.3W DIRM12 = 26DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 114.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 21, 2006 1:37 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 211740
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 21 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO ARE CENTERED ABOUT 525
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#9 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 22, 2006 9:53 am

Not dead just yet... SHIPS has gone back to calling for a TS.

074
WHXX01 KMIA 221441
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972006) ON 20061122 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061122 1200 061123 0000 061123 1200 061124 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 122.5W 11.3N 123.8W 11.8N 125.4W 12.4N 127.1W
BAMM 10.9N 122.5W 11.1N 124.1W 11.2N 125.8W 11.6N 127.6W
LBAR 10.9N 122.5W 11.2N 123.9W 11.7N 125.8W 12.3N 127.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061124 1200 061125 1200 061126 1200 061127 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 128.8W 14.4N 130.4W 15.9N 129.3W 21.9N 114.4W
BAMM 12.1N 129.4W 12.8N 132.5W 13.5N 134.7W 13.5N 135.3W
LBAR 12.8N 129.3W 14.1N 131.7W 15.7N 132.1W 21.1N 128.8W
SHIP 36KTS 28KTS 23KTS 17KTS
DSHP 36KTS 28KTS 23KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 122.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 120.4W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 118.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Nov 22, 2006 1:58 pm

SHIPS assumes that it is already a depression. So technically, SHIPS is not calling for development
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#11 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 22, 2006 8:24 pm

818
WHXX01 KMIA 221849
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972006) ON 20061122 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061122 1800 061123 0600 061123 1800 061124 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 123.0W 11.3N 124.5W 11.7N 126.2W 12.4N 128.1W
BAMM 10.9N 123.0W 10.9N 124.8W 10.9N 126.8W 11.2N 128.9W
LBAR 10.9N 123.0W 11.3N 124.4W 12.0N 126.2W 12.7N 128.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061124 1800 061125 1800 061126 1800 061127 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 129.5W 14.0N 130.8W 16.1N 127.2W 22.6N 111.1W
BAMM 11.5N 130.9W 11.8N 134.5W 11.8N 137.3W 11.7N 140.2W
LBAR 13.1N 129.5W 14.3N 131.7W 17.0N 131.0W 23.1N 125.2W
SHIP 29KTS 21KTS 20KTS 17KTS
DSHP 29KTS 21KTS 20KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 123.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 121.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 119.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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