SW-Caribbean Convection

[TheEuropean]

Some convection in SW Caribbean:


(SSd - NOAA)

Models show nothing forming at this time, but I will watch this.

[TheEuropean]

This is from TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
81W-84W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0539.shtml?

[Coredesat]

The models have been progging some kind of development here for a little while now. It's the only favorable part of the basin right now.

[boca]

Looks like something is spinning offf the coast down there.

[Aquawind]

The models have been progging some kind of development here for a little while now. It's the only favorable part of the basin right now.

It does look suspect this morning and yes schmodels have hinted. However, it has cooled off considerably more here in south florida than any of the extended forecast had last week. Were talking highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's even and that is about 10 degrees lower than the forecast a week ago. It's favorable down there but not even close up here. Even if something does develop it won't be warm core to long..

[TheEuropean]

Floater #1 is on parts of this system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
77W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM 11N-13N AND NEAR 9N80W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W.

The above is the 7:05 AM EST discussion about what is going on in the Caribbean.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

The global model consensus last week was showing something spinning up in this area.Will this be it?

[Emmett_Brown]

Any thoughts about this system/energy interacting with the low that is progged to develop tomorrow off the east coast of FL? Perhaps it will add some added energy to the mix?

[wxman57]

That convection caught my eye yesterday as well. But if you examine surface features (and a satellite loop) you can see the cool, dry air behind a cold front moving southeastward into the convection this morning. The front is south of Grand Cayman Islands as of 7am CDT. With an influx of cool air into the convection today, chances of development are low to none.

[NONAME]

As of the 105 Tropical Disc. There is a 1009Mb low Along the Wave down there.

[TheEuropean]

Here is an update:


(SSD/NOAA)

And TWD this night:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND
83W...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W...AND SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

[TheEuropean]

00z-models show low pressure in the next few days down there but nothing to develop into a stronger system at this time.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW IS
GOING TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER
HIGH COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING ANY TRUE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

Above is the 7:05AM EST discussion from TPC of this area.

[whereverwx]

Very interesting, but sadly I doubt--knowing the way this season has been--that it will amount to anything. At least there's something spinning.

[TheEuropean]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE
CNTRL/WRN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-82W WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS
OF JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 21N73W 17N79W 11N80W. A 1048 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED A
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WHERE NLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE COMMON W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHTER E TO NE WINDS ARE E OF THE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE CLOUDS
NEAR 16N80W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY BE
FORMING IN THAT VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL SWLY-WLY WINDS...NEAR AND
W OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 72W...ARE SPREADING MOISTURE
AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT MUCH OF THIS IS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ON THE
DESCENT NLY BRANCH ABOVE THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-74W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY
QUIET ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. GFS SHOWS THE DEEP
MOISTURE SWATH LINGERING BUT SHRINKING IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS IN THE CNTRL/WRN CARIBBEAN.

[TheEuropean]

Here is an update:



And TWD this night:

AXNT20 KNHC 210616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE
IS EVIDENT EVERYWHERE AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N64W TO 24N70W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO A 1009 MB WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N80W...TO 10N81W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N76W 16N75W 18N74W...AND 18N72W
21N72W 24N71W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 77W...AND WITHIN 360 NM WEST
OF THE LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

[cycloneye]

Below is the 1:05 PM discussion from TPC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FAIRLY SHARP AIRMASS DIFFERENCE EXISTS IN THE CARIB. THE
DIVIDER IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/ERN CUBA EXTENDING SWD TOWARDS THE COAST OF
PANAMA NEAR 10N82W. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND NOTABLE DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE S OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-85W. STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS ARE ALSO REPORTED FROM SHIPS IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THIS UNSEASONABLE AIRMASS REFER
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION AND FOR WINDS AND SEAS REFER TO
MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAOFFNT4. ACTIVE WEATHER...IN TERMS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...LIES TO THE E OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ABOUT 120-150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SE BAHAMAS
SWD ALONG 17N76W 13N79W TO PANAMA. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VIS
IMAGES INDICATE A WIND SHIFT AND LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHICH WAS THE REASON OF ANALYZING THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER MORE IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY...NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION...IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE FRONT S OF 13N BETWEEN
75W-82W. NUMEROUS MODERATE IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SOME OF THIS STRONGER ACTIVITY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED STRETCHED UPPER RIDGE AND THE STRONG TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SW ATLC/GULF AND NW CARIB. THE ERN CARIB IS QUIET WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE PRODUCING PLENTY OF DRY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR
E OF 69W. GFS SHOWS THE DEEP MOISTURE SWATH REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT SHRINKING IN SIZE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE CNTRL/WRN CARIBBEAN.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

TheEuropean,there is no low now according to the latest discussion.

[wxman57]

The cold front is blasting into the area now. All the energy is being drawn north up the front. Development in the Caribbean highly unlikely.

[Aquawind]

We are talking COLD Front. As in wrap up.. Wayyy colder than forecasted 10 days ago alright.

[TheEuropean]

Here is another update:



And the latest TWD:

AXNT20 KNHC 220617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO HAITI...AND
BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HAITI FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 13N73W AND 13N76W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N76W 14N77W TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA.