Hoooooly crap!

azsnowman · #1 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:45 pm

Hoooly crap....just finished watching a local met and HE said that this system is going to cut off and stay around till FRIDAY of NEXT WEEK with the heaviest snowfall seen in EONS (we had 6 FEET with ONE system back in 1967! :eek:

) and he AND this AFD are pretty much jumping on board for THIS system to RIVAL the Blizzard of '67 :eek:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 132200 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 245 PM MST WED DEC 13 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDINESS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES FROM SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH. BY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY AFTN/EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE STATE SUNDAY...THEN CUT OFF OVER SRN CALIFORNIA OR ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THE STORMS TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FALLS...AND THESE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY FALLING AS LOW AS 3500 FEET. THE LATEST GFS MODEL TARGETS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH DEEP SATURATION...AND OUR POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...SO STAY TUNED.

#2 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:52 pm

id take 6 feet of snow

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:54 pm

fact789 wrote:id take 6 feet of snow

You have about an equal chance of winning the lottery than seeing snow in St. Pete. St. Pete is on a peninsula that is typically about 5-7 degrees warmer than the rest of the Tampa area further from the bay.

About a 0.001% in St. Pete
About a 1% chance in Tampa

#4 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:
fact789 wrote:id take 6 feet of snow

You have about an equal chance of winning the lottery than seeing snow in St. Pete. St. Pete is on a peninsula that is typically about 5-7 degrees warmer than the rest of the Tampa area further from the bay.

About a 0.001% in St. Pete
About a 1% chance in Tampa

i saw some quick flurries last year when it hit 29, i believe tampa also had flurries.

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:59 pm

fact789 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
fact789 wrote:id take 6 feet of snow

You have about an equal chance of winning the lottery than seeing snow in St. Pete. St. Pete is on a peninsula that is typically about 5-7 degrees warmer than the rest of the Tampa area further from the bay.

About a 0.001% in St. Pete
About a 1% chance in Tampa

i saw some quick flurries last year when it hit 29, i believe tampa also had flurries.

Perhaps sleet? But if you are by the water in St. Pete (include downtown St. Pete, Gulfport, Tierra Verde, etc, I just can't see any snow falling there --- now Pinellas Park and central St. Pete away from the water maybe.....and of course northern pinellas including Palm Harbor, East Lake and Tarpon Springs - yet since they don't have the bay to the north and east to protect them.

#6 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:02 pm

i am in kenneth city away from the water

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:06 pm

fact789 wrote:i am in kenneth city away from the water

in that case its possible -- the last "major" snow event for the Tampa Bay area was way back on December 24th 1989 and if you look back at history it typically happens every 15 years or so

which mean it should happen any year now.

Not this Christmas though -- good beach weather actually with highs in the 70s and lows barely out of the 50s is what it looks like at this time. 8-)

Extremeweatherguy · #8 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:08 pm

The largest Tampa snowfall in modern times occurred in January 1977...

^^Picture I found from here: http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/photos/envi ... r/0627.htm ^^

It even accumulated!

Also, during that same storm, up to 2" of snow fell in areas between Orlando and Tampa. Snow was also seen in Miami on that day.

#9 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:12 pm

refresh my memory...what was the deal with the shorts and you eating them live again? :lol:

azsnowman · #10 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 5:31 pm

brunota2003 wrote:refresh my memory...what was the deal with the shorts and you eating them live again?

I don't remember, it had something to do with snow and WINTER perhaps :?:

Honestly, I don't remember what I said but I think it was about if it didn't snow then I'd eat my shorts live on Storm2k 8-)

Now....check this out 8-)

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HWOFGZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST FRI DEC 15 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-161200-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST FRI DEC 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAVORED AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VERY COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULT IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.

OWING TO THE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE EXACT TRACK AND AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THERE ARE NO WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES
ISSUED YET CONCERNING THIS STORM. STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
SOURCE...OR http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...FOR UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

azsnowman · #11 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:18 pm

Ahem....this is sounding pretty GOOD

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ...RETRANSMISSION
420 PM MST FRI DEC 15 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-161400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
420 PM MST FRI DEC 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING STRONG WINDS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...BY LATE MORNING...SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 15
TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SEE THE WIND ADVISORY
(PRODUCT PHXNPWFGZ) FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...WILL BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
STORM...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

8-)

bob rulz · #12 Postby **bob rulz** » Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:43 am

6-12 inches (possibly more!) expected here just through Saturday night. Bring it on. 8-)

azsnowman · #13 Postby **azsnowman** » Sat Dec 16, 2006 6:51 pm

These cut off lows are a SOB to out guess I would guess :ggreen:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 162212 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 310 PM MST SAT DEC 16 2006 .SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA BRINGING COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. && .DISCUSSION...AS AREAS OF THICK AND MOSTLY UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS APPROACHING AND DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS GUSTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED 40 MPH. STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS MAY ACTUALLY SET-UP OVER THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE TO DETERMINE IF THE WIND ADVISORY COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME. MEANWHILE...THIS ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE INTRODUCING ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING (INCLUDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET) FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. INITIAL ONSET OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKLY BY 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. SNOW AND LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS ARE A VERY TRICKY PORTION OF THIS FORECAST...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO AROUND 9AM TOMORROW MORNING...DURING WHICH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE PLUNGING. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE GRIDS/ZONES FOR AREA-SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS AND SNOW LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF DOWN PERIOD IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND STARTS TO CUT-OFF ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP MAY TAKE SHAPE SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO MONITOR HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES.

#14 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:15 pm

Cutoff Lows-a forecaster's woe.

Steve

#15 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:27 pm

cutoff lows are a SOB

azsnowman · #16 Postby **azsnowman** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 12:02 pm

So far it's a bust on the snow event but we are getting some much needed rain fall w/ a sleet mix....it sounds like it's outta here tonight before re energizing for tomorrow night and Tues and then another system forecast for Friday into early next week!

bob rulz · #17 Postby **bob rulz** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:49 am

azsnowman wrote:So far it's a bust on the snow event but we are getting some much needed rain fall w/ a sleet mix....it sounds like it's outta here tonight before re energizing for tomorrow night and Tues and then another system forecast for Friday into early next week!

Yeah, our storm busted, too. We got 2 inches here while areas 30 miles to the south basked in a foot of beautiful snow.

Hoooooly crap!

Hoooooly crap!

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