startling statement on "it could happen tomorrow"

[JonathanBelles]

im watching the NYC hurricane It could happen tomorrow again. The statement was: "the force of the storm surge was measured on seismographs in Alaska." How could this be? Im not sure they were talking about the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1928 because alaska wasnt formed until 2 decades later, but im still shocked at the statement.

[Derek Ortt]

Alaska was in existence long before it became a state

[f5]

Alaska was in existence long before it became a state

before that it was a land without borders beside without land you can't have borders

[Ptarmigan]

Alaska was a territory at the time. You're thinking of the Great Hurricane of 1938.

[Aslkahuna]

In fact, Alaska became a territory of the US in 1869 when it was purchased from Russia-and it did have established borders prior since the current Canadian Border in western North America was established earlier in the 19th Century. Sitka, Anchorage and Juneau were established towns in the 19th Century and seismographs became operational in the 1880's.

Steve

[JonathanBelles]

o wow seimographs were much earlier that i had thought but everybody went around the point of the question.

[Frank2]

I just don't understand why TWC runs that silly episode - I'd bet the ranch (and the cows and chickens, too) that NYC officials would say that they have much bigger things to be concerned about in today's world, than to worry over the very small chance that a severe hurricane will make landfall in their area.

I happened to be there when Hurricane Belle (1976) approached the area, and, even many hours before landfall, the NHC already said that it would weaken considerably due to cool ocean temps - it did.

In 1985, the NHC was critized by some in the media (I know, because I opened the letters we received from the public, who, to our gratitude, were in favor of the NHC - and opposed to the media's comments) because much was made of Hurricane Gloria's potential to NYC - as it turned out, again, due to cool ocean temps and a more easterly track, the hurricane was nothing more than a windy rainstorm of a few hours duration.

Of all the past hurricanes to affect the city, only the 1821, 1938 and 1954 hurricanes resulted in loss of life or significant damage, which means that only 1 or 2 hurricanes per 100 years would be a serious threat to the area - again, they have much bigger things to be concered about every day...

Here's an interesting link I found:

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazard ... tory.shtml

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

NYC is concerned about a hurricane due to the severe impacts from 1821 and 1893. 1821 was a cat 2 that hit at low tide and merged the East and Hudson Rivers at Wall Street and 1893 was a cat 1 that left no trace of Hog Island (Island no longer exists, the island itself was destroyed by the surge)

To not be completely prepared for when the next upper cat 1 or cat 2 hits is quite foolish, IMO. It is the most surge prone part of the USA, which, along with the extreme population density, is the reason why the threat is taken so seriously by EMO (though some residents have an attitude like many of the FL Keys residents)

[Ptarmigan]

NYC is concerned about a hurricane due to the severe impacts from 1821 and 1893. 1821 was a cat 2 that hit at low tide and merged the East and Hudson Rivers at Wall Street and 1893 was a cat 1 that left no trace of Hog Island (Island no longer exists, the island itself was destroyed by the surge)

To not be completely prepared for when the next upper cat 1 or cat 2 hits is quite foolish, IMO. It is the most surge prone part of the USA, which, along with the extreme population density, is the reason why the threat is taken so seriously by EMO (though some residents have an attitude like many of the FL Keys residents)

I read that a Category 4 hurricane could produce storm surge as high as 25 feet in the New York area. It has to do with the unique layout of the New York Bay and Hudson River. I believe there is a lot of shallow water surrounding New York area. It's even more vulnerable than New Orleans/Gulfport, but without any area below sealevel, which New Orleans has.

[Derek Ortt]

25 feet will almost certainly occur in a hurricane much weaker than cat 4, probably in a cat 2. The reason is that the hurricane would be very large, probably similar in size to Wilma after it hammered Grand Bahama Island.

A cat 3 almost certainly would produce more than 30-35 feet of surge in NYC.

yes, it doesn't have areas below sea level, but neither does Mississippi and the surge obliterated much of the MGC. The same could happen to NYC coastal areas, not to mention the wind damage to the high rises, making verticla evacuation impossible

[Ptarmigan]

25 feet will almost certainly occur in a hurricane much weaker than cat 4, probably in a cat 2. The reason is that the hurricane would be very large, probably similar in size to Wilma after it hammered Grand Bahama Island.

A cat 3 almost certainly would produce more than 30-35 feet of surge in NYC.

yes, it doesn't have areas below sea level, but neither does Mississippi and the surge obliterated much of the MGC. The same could happen to NYC coastal areas, not to mention the wind damage to the high rises, making verticla evacuation impossible

That would be really bad. It would certainly be worse than Katrina in terms of damage and lives loss.

[JonathanBelles]

a 25 ft storm surge would cause probably a billion in dollors in NYC alone. they were saying on TWC that the subways would have to be replaced.

[CrazyC83]

a 25 ft storm surge would cause probably a billion in dollors in NYC alone. they were saying on TWC that the subways would have to be replaced.

$1 billion? More like $100 billion or more...

[Derek Ortt]

just a billion?

may want to add some zeros to that figure

an NYC major cane is one of the worst things that can happen to our country. Will dwarf even the horrors of Katrina and 9/11, 2 events that most probably could not even imagine before they occurred

[CrazyC83]

just a billion?

may want to add some zeros to that figure

an NYC major cane is one of the worst things that can happen to our country. Will dwarf even the horrors of Katrina and 9/11, 2 events that most probably could not even imagine before they occurred

In just the City of New York, insured damage would likely be around $100 billion, with total damage around $250 billion.

Overall, damage could be between $500 billion and $1 trillion if it is a very large hurricane.

[JonathanBelles]

well i was thinking you guys would nag on me for saying on trillion but well

[f5]

a 25 ft storm surge would cause probably a billion in dollors in NYC alone. they were saying on TWC that the subways would have to be replaced.

let me make this simple put Katrina's record surge on top of NYC instead of MGC

[Frank2]

I just read everyone's posts, and, it's true that the New York bay is situated in such a way, that a high storm surge (if a major hurricane made landfall just west of the city, for example) would push a great amount of high water over lower Manhattan, but...

The chance of that kind of odd track is very remote (since the westerlies and Coriolis force would not normally allow such a track at that high a latitude), and, per Derek's post, the two events mentioned were in the 1800's - hello - that shows just how remote the chance is...

Ironically, 9/11 took place when the sky was clear - apparently one reason why those responsible chose that particular morning. I have to stand by my comment that TWC should rethink airing that episode over and over - NYC residents have enough real things to worry about...

Frank

P.S. I was also there for Hurricane Donna (1960) - several hours of very high (80-100) mph winds, but, Donna's eye made landfall east of the city...

[Derek Ortt]

while the chance is very low, they do need to be prepared prior to the storm. If they prepare like NO did with Katrina (in other words, not prepare at all or fail to enact the procedures that the plans called for, such as using school busses to evacuate people instead of letting them turn into boats), the result will be something that most cannot even start to comprehend

[JonathanBelles]

is it posible that if a hurricane hit NYC directly that we may go into a depression?