The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Where are you Winter
Why can't I find you
Why have you gone away
Where are the snowstorms
You used to bring me
Why can't I see the snow fall…
Happy New Year? Yeah right! But that’s the way things look to me.
Now, on to the gory details—at least for many. Any pattern change to colder and snowier weather still appears to lie in the future. For now, the positive Arctic Oscillation will continue to reign over the Polar Region, keeping winter’s cold locked away from the Continental United States.
My thinking for the average temperature anomalies during the 1/1-7 period is as follows:
Average Regional Temperature Anomalies (1/1-7):
Northeast: Above normal
Mid-Atlantic: Above normal
Southeast: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Great Lakes: Above normal
Northern Plains: Above normal
Central Plains: Above normal
Southern Plains: Near normal
Pacific Northwest: Above normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Above normal to much above normal
For the major cities from Washington, DC to Boston, the 1/1-7 period is likely to feature:
- Nights generally in the 20s and 30s throughout the region.
- Days mainly in the 30s and 40s in Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia and 40s and 50s in Washington, DC
- One or more days with a high temperature of 50° or above in Washington, DC and Philadelphia
In the Southeast, Atlanta will likely see highs generally in the 40s and 50s. Lows should generally be in the 30s and 40s.
Northern New England could see a snowier pattern begin to evolve.
“Could things be any worse?” some might be tempted to ask. Well, it could actually get much worse. Be thankful that none of the objective analogs showing up are January 14, 1932; January 26, 1950; January 18, 1990; January 15, 1995; or January 29, 2002.
Wait. I might have spoken too soon. The latest run of the GSM is doing its best imitation of January 29, 2002 for the January 20-27 timeframe:
Seriously, I don’t expect that outcome. If historic experience is representative, the positive Arctic Oscillation regime will come to an end and more frequent blocking will occur. With cold air that had been bottled up near the North Pole being liberated, ENSO Region 1+2 continuing to cool, and ENSO climatology arguing for the evolution toward a colder pattern as January progresses, I believe the GSM outlook will need to be put on ice.
Why?
First, long-lived patterns often break down in 4-6 weeks. The current pattern began around December 10. The 4-6-week timeframe would fall in the January 6-20 period.
Second, if one examines the MEI, over the past 4 months, the following years have seen the smallest average differences from the current 2006:
1977: 0.126
1991: 0.142
2002: 0.155
1986: 0.170
1994: 0.183
1963: 0.188
1957: 0.218
1993: 0.224
All but one of those seasons saw the East average normal or colder than normal in the January 15-February 15 timeframe. All but 1991-92 featured a Kocin-Uccellini snowstorm somewhere in the East at some point during or after that timeframe.
Third, if one looks at the objective analogs (ECM and GFS), one finds a number of dates from the above list of winters: January 1, 1958; December 31, 1963; December 15, 1977; December 27, 1986 (shows up twice); and December 20, 1994. If one then examines those seasons, the pattern flipped to a colder one 1 day later in 1957-58, 11 days later in 1963-64, 11 days later in 1977-78, 21 days later in 1986-87, and 13 days later in 1994-95. Adding the interval for the pattern change to the dates around which the objective analogs were centered, that would suggest the potential for a pattern flip starting on 12/29, 1/8, 1/10, 1/11, 1/18, and 1/21.
Fourth, consider that according to historic experience, the current powerful AO+ regime will likely linger until the January 10-20, 2007 timeframe. Such super-long duration events have typically seen frequent blocking (NAO-) in the 30-day period following their demise.
As a result, I have a reasonable confidence that a pattern change could occur in the January 10-20 timeframe. Signs of such a change could begin to appear on the guidance during the first week in January.
If the pattern change occurs on schedule, then perhaps Faith Hill can conclude:
I feel you Winter
I know I've found you
You never fade away
The joy of Winter
Stays here inside us
Fills each and every yard with snow...
