What's interesting is that the CFSv2 doesn't show much of a pronounced, eastward-progressing North Atlantic cold pool through early spring. While visible, it doesn't seem to exert much of an influence on surrounding warm anomalies, and doesn't manage to (temporarily) displace them across the whole North Atlantic. By May–June, those cold anomalies retreat rather quickly, and a strong +AMO arc emerges on the CFSv2, with a warm tongue extending from Greenland south into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Note that while the MDR is cool on the run, the CFSv2 has had a persistent long-range cool bias in that region; it ended up too cool for the past two seasons in the tropical Atlantic. However, note that the CFSv2 shows a pattern much more redolent of a classic +AMO than what we observed from 2013–16. In fact, it looks to be even more positive this winter/spring than it was in 2016–17. If this trend were to verify and ENSO were to remain neutral, then I would expect a potentially very active 2018 season, unfortunately. But I must stress that this is a very preliminary and early assessment.
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005