TX Winter Wx Threat # 11-- sleet and snow in a lot of Tx/La

[Lindaloo]

Continued.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are a few good maps:

Canadian temps: http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather ... anada.html

surface map for U.S. and Canada: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

[double D]

The models (especially the gfs) has brought the 1040mb+ high more to the west and now straight down the plain states right into Texas. It also looks like this air mass won't be shallow, so anything that falls would most likely be sleet/snow.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FT WORTH TX
FRIDAY MORNING FEB 9TH

NORTH TEXAS CAN EXPECT QUITE A COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS ON WED AND
THURS. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES ON WED MORNING...WITH RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE. GFS PROFILES ON WED
AND THURS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO...SUGGESTING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AS COLD AS
THE GFS AT THIS TIME...THUS WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. PROFILES SUGGEST SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS MORNING...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION 14 POP FOR NOW. STILL
A LITTLE BIT TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY NAIL DOWN HOW COLD IT WILL BE
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW NEXT WEEK.

[abcd4]

I know MSN weather is unrelaible. But, check out these temp differences.
Msn Weather
Friday H-30 L-20
Saturday H-32 L-23
Sunday H-32 L-26
With a chance of Froz precip-snow
The Weather Channel
Friday H-55 L-44
Saturday H-62 L-46
Sunday H-58 L-44

[abcd4]

That forecast was for Beaumont, Texas

[Kennethb]

MSN is a form of REM sleep......Only in your dreams.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing that is going to be a major factor this time is the cold in western canada...

http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather ... anada.html

This cold was not there before the last front and we still managed a high of 49 and a low of 32 behind that one. Now, with cold there, I wouldn't be surprised if we see up to 10-15 degree colder highs with the clouds and CAA behind this next front. Still time to watch everything, but ATM the models and setup are looking much more favorable for cold than they were last weekend for us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing I have noticed is that each new GFS MOS guidance is getting colder and colder. The latest is a few degrees colder than last night's and last night's was a bit colder than yesterday afternoon. Since the MOS is usually a bit too warm at this range with arctic air, I think this downward trend will continue...

12z GFS MOS guidance:

KIAH GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 2/09/2007 1200 UTC
FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16|SAT CLIMO
N/X 41 54| 47 64| 63 72| 52 59| 39 52| 34 50| 37 56| 43 43 65
TMP 42 51| 49 63| 65 68| 55 54| 41 48| 35 47| 39 53| 45
DPT 36 43| 46 58| 63 64| 49 38| 34 36| 30 33| 34 39| 41
WND 11 10| 7 15| 15 15| 9 17| 17 13| 16 18| 10 9| 10
P12 16 6| 9 23| 14 55| 52 11| 11 33| 33 34| 13 15| 18 18 21
P24 30| 47| 63| 52| 33| 41| 23| 29
Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 2| 2 0| 0 0| 1 1| |
Q24 0| 1| 2| 1| 0| 1| |
T12 7 5| 5 6| 8 40| 39 5| 6 6| 7 7| 6 3| 8
T24 | 7 | 11 | 61 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11
SNW 0| 0| 9| 9| 9| | |

latest MOS shows a high near 50 on Thursday and 34 Friday morning. Yesterday evening it was showing about 52 for Thursday and 38 for Friday morning.

UPDATE (3:45pm):

The NWS is now lowering their temps. a little bit more as well. This looks to be a downward trend now...

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52

34 and precip. on Wednesday night is pretty interesting too (especially since it was forecast to be 40 yesterday morning).

[Portastorm]

So were the heck is everybody?!

I'm telling you fellow Texans ... our winter storm is coming next week!!

[gboudx]

We're just waiting around for AFM to do his best Lucy impersonation.

I noticed that neither jeff, wxman57, nor aggiecutter have commented yet. Maybe they're all too busy, or maybe it's not worth the time.

[double D]

So were the heck is everybody?!

I'm telling you fellow Texans ... our winter storm is coming next week!! :cheesy:

Have you been talking to JB, Portastorm? I'm still baffled about our high of 45 today, wasn't it just a couple of days ago that we were supposed to be in the 60's?

[Portastorm]

So were the heck is everybody?!

I'm telling you fellow Texans ... our winter storm is coming next week!! :cheesy:

Have you been talking to JB, Portastorm? I'm still baffled about our high of 45 today, wasn't it just a couple of days ago that we were supposed to be in the 60's?

JB says next week into next weekend is our time. Said it today on his videos. He's trumpeting an I-20 snowstorm and possibly parts further south.

I've got a good feeling about this one ...

[double D]

Did you not get my joke Porta, I meant to say your starting to sound like JB.
Does anybody know what is up with the NWS forecast discussions for this afternoon? They are way overdue.

[Portastorm]

Did you not get my joke Porta, I meant to say your starting to sound like JB.
Does anybody know what is up with the NWS forecast discussions for this afternoon? They are way overdue.

No, I got it double D ... I'm laughing.

Y'all probably think I'm nuts about this but after all of the different computer models showing a favorable setup . . . I'm game.

[gboudx]

Did you not get my joke Porta, I meant to say your starting to sound like JB.
Does anybody know what is up with the NWS forecast discussions for this afternoon? They are way overdue.

Glad to hear it's just not me. I've wondered too why they aren't out yet. Maybe some issue with the main Southern Region server.

[double D]

yeah gboudx, that's what I'm thinking too. I also noticed that most of the observations from the NWS were not current, so probably some type of mechanical problem.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our high has only been about 52-53 where I am in NW Houston today. This is a good 7-8 degrees colder than the forecast for today was 2 days ago.

[Kelarie]

So were the heck is everybody?!

I'm telling you fellow Texans ... our winter storm is coming next week!!

Hey Porta, I will hold the football for you.... I am on board with ya...maybe we both will have egg on our faces, maybe not....

[WhiteShirt]

So.....does this look good for the Houston area to see some winter precip next week?