WTXS33 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210921Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN
OPTIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210921Z FEB 07
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210930 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
