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Even though they dont mention tornadoes, this still sounds pretty good for 2 days out.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST MID 50 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. WIND
FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE
AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS AND THE STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO WI
...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.
I just took a look at the COD models, and it looks like decent moisture for Iowa and southern Minnesota (atleast for March) and shear also looks pretty good, both directional and wind shear, however, the 500 mb winds are lacking, but only at the 42 hour, the 48 hour looks fine for Iowa and Minnesota. A big vort max out there in eastern South Dakota in the 42 hr, and for southern Minnesota the winds shift from south to southwest from the surface all the way up to the 200 mb level. so it looks pretty good, just waiting for a new run for the WRF.
March 25th Severe threat, possible chase
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ncupsscweather
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ncupsscweather
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- Age: 38
- Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:05 pm
- Location: Hickory,North Carolina
i definately have to say both speed and directional shear looks good for pretty much all of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The SPC has the moderate risk for SE Minnesota, but i dunno about that, i'm starting to like south central Minnesot again because it looks like winds at the 700 mb level might be lacking a little in SE Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but south central looks better. Looks like moisture should be good for the entire area.
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wxmann_91
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There's too little instability today as the clouds and leftover showers hung around too long.
As for tomorrow, one potential caveat that I see will be that storm motion vectors will be perpendicular to the warm front, which could limit the tornado threat a bit if the warm front gets hung up by any convection to the north.
As for tomorrow, one potential caveat that I see will be that storm motion vectors will be perpendicular to the warm front, which could limit the tornado threat a bit if the warm front gets hung up by any convection to the north.
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looks pretty likely i'll be out chasing tomorrow. i still like south central Minnesota more than southeast Minnesota even though SE has the MOD risk. maybe the SPC will move the risk back west for tomorrow's outlook.
Last edited by dean on Sat Mar 24, 2007 5:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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