Rainfall Deficit and Tropical Weather Strike??????

[Tommedic]

Has any study been done that looks at the relationship between a rainfall deficit and a landfalling tropical system at a location?? Example: Some locals are saying that we can expect a landfall this year due to such a severe deficit of rainfall. Some of the seniors state that this is common and is Nature's way of evening things out. Any ideas or comments from the researchers on the board??

[JonathanBelles]

I've always had this thought since 2004. It will be interesting to see what the pro-mets say.

[cpdaman]

well models are forecasting a cut off low to form SE of north carolina and drift southward and then SW before moving out to the NE (all this over a period of SUN-WED)


SOOOO...... looks like N.fl and southern GA could get some rain out of this system

and this is part of a tropical discussion because this very well may become A subtropical storm or subtropical depresssion which may bring decent rains to the northern part of the state nothing major since storm should be off shore but more widespread then we have been used to


not to mention coastal flooding as well as waves up to 12 feet possible in the PALM beaches wow i'll take some pics

[CourierPR]

History shows that when Florida has a dry May, it is more likely to be hit by a storm.

[Blown Away]

Jim Lushine found a relationship between dry SFL Mays and SFL Hurricane landfalls. The theory is not 100%, but there seems to be higher probabilty of SFL hurricanes when there is a dry May.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/curre/rainmaps/monthly.html
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/so ... tm?print=1

[hial2]

History shows that when Florida has a dry May, it is more likely to be hit by a storm.

I think this theory was discussed in an earlier thread and proved wrong....

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Has any study been done that looks at the relationship between a rainfall deficit and a landfalling tropical system at a location?? Example: Some locals are saying that we can expect a landfall this year due to such a severe deficit of rainfall. Some of the seniors state that this is common and is Nature's way of evening things out. Any ideas or comments from the researchers on the board??

seen that alot here in the texas coastal areas, dry aprils and mays have results in tropical activity, although undoumented, but personally researched, I have seen it many times like '99,'01,'03 and '05
also note those are odd years, so we're in '07, its been a kinda rainy spring but below our norms. in some areas, also its been a cooler to near normal temp wise this spring, still feel a cat. 2/3 somewhere along the texas coast this year, time will tell

[CourierPR]

Hial2, with all due respect, the TPC has brought this up in past years. Please refer me to your proof.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hial2, with all due respect, the TPC has brought this up in past years. Please refer me to your proof.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=#1535843

Scroll to the last post in the thread. While many dry Mays featured strikes, the evidence is inconclusive. In addition, Mays with normal or above average rainfall totals featured south Florida hurricane strikes. Although the dry May theory may hold some merit, the results are mixed.

[Blown Away]

Hial2, with all due respect, the TPC has brought this up in past years. Please refer me to your proof.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=#1535843

Scroll to the last post in the thread. While many dry Mays featured strikes, the evidence is inconclusive. In addition, Mays with normal or above average rainfall totals featured south Florida hurricane strikes. Although the dry May theory may hold some merit, the results are mixed.

I don't think anybody said the theory was 100%, Lushine suggested the chances of a SFL hurricane increase when SFL has a dry May. I'm starting to hear afternoon storms almost daily since the beginning of May, so it seems the patterns are changing.

[johngaltfla]

Has any study been done that looks at the relationship between a rainfall deficit and a landfalling tropical system at a location?? Example: Some locals are saying that we can expect a landfall this year due to such a severe deficit of rainfall. Some of the seniors state that this is common and is Nature's way of evening things out. Any ideas or comments from the researchers on the board??

From a purely "non-scientific" point of view, we here in Florida have had the extremes. A very, very dry 2004 winter, then all he** breaking loose.

I look more to a connection to the red tide than the dry winter-spring seasons. There's where I think Mother Nature is warning us......

[Tommedic]

I appreciate the response so far. I appreciate those that have responded with a positive spirit even when disagreeing. Please respect each others views and understand our different levels of education and experience. I for one realize that there is NO one theory that is 100% correct. Even Dr Gray has years that he is off. I was uncertain as to whether there is any correlation and if any formal studies have been done. Thanks for the responses. I am very interested in a response from Mark Suddath and his research team as to whether they have looked at this from the point of SE NC.

[deltadog03]

actually what I have always been told and have learned through school is that a DRY soil or drought leads to warm and ridges. So, maybe I can see that, but I see HOT conditions equating to that.

[vbhoutex]

actually what I have always been told and have learned through school is that a DRY soil or drought leads to warm and ridges. So, maybe I can see that, but I see HOT conditions equating to that.

Many long time residents along the Gulf coast will tell you that if we are hotter and dryer than normal, especially for a long time that the only thing that will positively break that is a tropical system. I have seen it happen several times over my 50 years on the coast(more often than not). I have also seen it not happen. Is there a proven correlation?? Not a scientifically proven one that I am aware of.