12z Nogaps also shows Cape Verde system

[cycloneye]

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... hour=120hr

What kind of system it will be in 120 hours is the question but apart from NOGAPS other models are too showing this feature so I think the CV season will get a start very soon.

[Guest]

Is this a system that is coming off of africa? Sorry to ask such dumb questions.

[ameriwx2003]

Cyclone , yes it does look like we will soon have a system out there. Interestingly enough, it looks like to me also that wave in the Caribbean near Hispanola the Nogaps picks up on. you can follow it on this map and even on the surface loop ip appears to show a weak sfc reflection in the Gulf, notice I said appears:):0. Would like other input:)

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

[GulfBreezer]

Is this the same system that GFS picks up and carries it all the way through to landfall in the Fl Big Bend area?

[ameriwx2003]

Gulfbreezer ,that system that the models form east of the islands is what we are talking about. the 06 UTC brought it into the Gulf, while the 12 UTC made it s fish storm. Right now I don't really look at any possible track the models have for it in the 5 day + because that will change several times. One thing has been consistent though with the GFS and thats for several model runs it forms that system east of the islands.

[Derek Ortt]

Of more significance that the vorticity field, which does not indicate a TC, merely a vort max, CMC, GFS, and GFDL all indicate a closed LLC with this system in 3-5 days

[ameriwx2003]

Derek, yes I am aware of the Vorticity field:):), What I was pointing out is the wave near Hispanola and was using the vorticity field to track that easier:):)