Lower Bahamas may once again be key to tropical formation

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Berwick Bay

Lower Bahamas may once again be key to tropical formation

#1 Postby Berwick Bay » Wed May 16, 2007 6:02 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


As it was in '05. Its been several years since we've had an active Cape Verde Season. As in '05 we can look for an active year, but without much from the African Coast. Whether its dryer conditions in Africa, or an abundance of dust coming off the coast there, I'm not sure what the cause. However, the overall positive conditions for development should favor formation in the lower Bahamas and perhaps in the Eastern and Southern Carribean toward the Leeward Islands. Look for an initial west movement before turning north toward the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Coast.
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#2 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 16, 2007 4:36 pm

Just curious, why might these areas be the focus points for development
the Caribbean and the Lower Bahamas?
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Berwick Bay

#3 Postby Berwick Bay » Wed May 16, 2007 6:18 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Just curious, why might these areas be the focus points for development
the Caribbean and the Lower Bahamas?


Because the waves will continue as always off the African Coast, but the healthier ones which ordinarily would organize in the Cape Verde area, will be delayed in their development. They will instead encounter more favorable conditions as they reach the Carribean Islands. Others will have a slightly more northerly component to their tracks, and will encounter the optimal conditions in the Lower Bahamas( this last scenario occured in '05.) Remember the overall conditions for tropical development will be good. The waves will hold together, its just that those which would have developed closer to the African Coast will be unable to do so. This has been a growing pattern in the last few years (going back before '05). I don't know if its cyclical or related to the Saharan Air Layer (dusty air coming off the African coast).
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#4 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 16, 2007 6:30 pm

thank you for the explanations. could be very active this year
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed May 16, 2007 8:25 pm

Excerpt from the 8 p.m. NHC Disc:

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.

The Bahamas are booming this season.
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