The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hopefully better than last year. Here is an email I compiled & sent out earlier today:
Here is my prediction for the 2007 Hurricane Season as posted on Storm2K:
Tropical Cyclones: 18
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher): 6
Final Numbers: 18/10/6
Yes they are high, but I think the table is set for a very active season. The ratio of hurricanes to total storms and the ratio of majors to total hurricanes will be high.
My two sentence prediction: It's going to be much like 2004 but a bit busier. Unfortunately, it looks like another bad year for Florida.
More in-depth for this email:
All factors point to another very busy hurricane season, similar to 2003, 2004 or even 2005. Sea Surface temps are running well above normal in the Caribbean and are creeping up in the Gulf of Mexico. Due to La Nina, wind shear is forecasted to be below normal in the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean which is favorable for hurricane development. The ITCZ already looks active with easterly waves lining up early this season. Andrea was a warning-shot that the tropics are primed for a busy season. All that is needed is for the westerlies to complete their migration north for the summer and the fuse will be lit.
La Nina also indicates a below-normal season for the EPAC and I see no reason why 2007 will be any different.
Three things particularly concern me for this season:
1) The pattern evolution favors a strong subtropical ridge/Bermuda high this summer. This is similar to 2004 and would tend to steer storms into Florida or even further west into the Gulf of Mexico. As a reminder, Florida got 4 hurricanes in 2004. While I don't expect another 4 hurricanes to hit Florida this year, it does look like an active year again for Florida. Furthermore, I expect the GOM to be active, similar to 2003. In 2003, Texas saw hurricane Claudette. Something to say about Claudette - I've studied this storm extensively and it was about 12 hours short of being a major disaster on the Texas coast. It was well on its way; it just made landfall before it got fully cranked-up.
2) The loop current is forecasted to be large, very warm, and right in the middle of the Gulf. Similar to 2005, this added fuel for storms such as Katrina and Rita. Any storms that make it into the open Gulf of Mexico could be a major, even historically intense if it crosses the loop current. This is bad news for the coast from Corpus to Pensacola.
3) New Orleans still isn't ready and they might not be as lucky this year as they were last year. Enough said.
Here are the factors I used in my prediction:
- The information I have read in Dr. Gray's prediction
- The information I have read in NOAA's prediction
- The information I have read in Accuweather's prediction
- The information I have read in Weather Research's prediction (based on sun-spot activity)
- The trend in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies this spring
- The El Nino/La Nina Cycle
- The ADO Cycle
- Strength of forecasted wind shear in the MDR (main development region) & Caribbean
- The forecasted placement of the US Subtropical ridge/Bermuda high
- The forecasted easterly wave activity
- Forecasted location & strength of the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico
- Andrea kicked my final tally up by a number
***Edited to include 2003 information and clarify La Nina as I neglected it earlier. That's what I get for rushing at work to write this
Duh...
