Gfs/Nogaps showing low in NW Caribbean June 11-14

[Ivanhater]

Well in about 9 days GFS hinting at some kind of weak low coming in from the NW Carr around the 11th....I know it most likely will change between now and then but something to watch at least...

[vacanechaser]

well i would have to say it got barry right from about 2 weeks out... lets see if the changes made help..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[windstorm99]

We'll the GFS has been a little crazy since its tune up but all in all it seems possible given the favorable conditions across the caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

[windstorm99]

Here's another view...

All the weather seems to be on the eastern side similar to barry.

[boca]

The 06GFS no longer shows that as of this run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[windstorm99]

The 06GFS no longer shows that as of this run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Thanks...Whats new LOL.

[Ivanhater]

Oh well...that was quick ....still a lot of convection in the area, Im sure it will spin something up in following runs...

[boca]

You have to admit its fun to see these phantom lows in on these runs. They do have a bullseye on the last page of this run over S FL at 384hrs. Wouldn't it be unreal if this model actually had accuracy to it.

[Ivanhater]

You have to admit its fun to see these phantom lows in on these runs. They do have a bullseye on the last page of this run over S FL at 384hrs. Wouldn't it be unreal if this model actually had accuracy to it.

Lol, Well its all we have to track until there actually is something

[DrewFL]

You have to admit its fun to see these phantom lows in on these runs. They do have a bullseye on the last page of this run over S FL at 384hrs. Wouldn't it be unreal if this model actually had accuracy to it.

That would be amazing. 16 days out. I'll have to make a written note to check in two weeks and see how that worked out...LOL.

Strange things can happen.....ie Andrea and Barry!

[Opal storm]

We'll the GFS has been a little crazy since its tune up but all in all it seems possible given the favorable conditions across the caribbean.

GFS has been a little crazy since...forever.

[Stephanie]

I'll bet it show up again. To me, the GFS USUALLY is on to something when it first shows a storm. It tends to magically re appear a day or so later after it loses it. The strength of the system, however can be different.

[canetracker]

Yesterday, I believe it was on the 06z run, it showed the same type of scenario with a landfall around June 13th. Then, on the 12z run it disappeared. I believe it will reappear again also.

[flightwxman]

Where was "landfall"?

[Ivanhater]

well gfs still trying to sniff something out coming through the yucatan channel arounf the 14th time frame...

[canetracker]

flightwxman: Landfall was in the Southern Florida Peninsula. I don't put too much long range confidence in the GFS, but still watch it and all the other models.

[Ivanhater]

Not best to look at track in the long range but what is interesting to note is the gfs has been showing this low and batch of convection in almost every run ...trends are what I look for and I'll closely be watching this area around then . plus its the same time frame berwick is talking about just a bit further east

[canetracker]

I do agree, the GFS is sniffing something out. If for nothing else, it seems to be good at that in the long range.

[windstorm99]

Keep in mind this is very long range and as you go out in time the skill level on the model drops of significantly.Overall it kinda sounds reasonable to me on something trying to pop up somewere in the caribbean in the next 2 weeks as its really about the only area out there were conditions will allow for something to go ahead and develope.

Adrian's Weather