The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This is not an official forecast, just the opinion of the poster
Alright, let's cut to the chase. I feel that there are deep flaws in some of the risk assesments and, before I go any further, I should note that no place on America's Atlantic or Gulf Coasts is either immune or a guaranteed spot for a hurricane. Now, with the disclaimers out of the way, let's talk about what I believe is going to happen...and, more importantly, why.
First, most scientists are in agreement that this will be an active hurricane season. I agree due to the fact that there will be much less dust and SAL interplay (due to copius rains in Africa), a more active ITCZ, the decline or El Nino, and, relatedly, the decrease in overall shear across the basin.
I think everyone is predicting an above-normal season to some degree but landfall risk forecasting seems to be lacking, in my opinion. Why?
Well, my main point of consideration is the intensifying drought in the southeast and the copius rainfall across the midwest and southern plains. Consider this: Huntsville, AL is near the geographic center of the drought (and is in one of the most intensely-affected locales) and has approached a precipitation deficit of 50 inches over the past two years. Further, here in Memphis we just finished with the driest spring ever. Prior to this year, three of the four driest years were "Dust Bowl" years and this year beat them all. Not a single major hurricane made landfall in the U.S. in any of those years...but, and this is very important, this is not a "Dust Bowl" year. The "Dust Bowl" period was characterized by a drought centered west of the Mississippi River, this year the drought is centered, for all intents and purposes, in Alabama. Meanwhile, the midwest is looking very wet. So, what does that mean?
Many of you are aware of the implications of the "drought cycle" and wet cycles. I won't go into the dynamics of those here, but, suffice it to say, periods of serious drought and serious rainfall seem to self-perpetuate themselves (Wikipedia has good explanations). The Gulf south states are entering the summer very dry just as they are entering their driest months of the year (August is usually the driest). Therefore, most official outlets are going with an increase in drought and I tend to agree. This will mean very hot temperatures, increased ridging, and much drier air than is normal for the Gulf states.
Further, the increased ridging over the southeast may, in fact, mean that the normal Bermuda High is displaced a little bit. Meanwhile, the midwest will continue to have a rather moist summer. That means that most storms will ride south along the Gulf until they find that weakness in the ridge...which is likely to be on the upper TX or western Louisiana coasts. I have denoted this on the map with a circled X...I believe this to be an EXTREMELY HIGH RISK area. I have never seen such a juxtaposition between flooding and drought along the Gulf coast as we enter hurricane season. I believe this will have serious implications.
I have a graphic representation of the features at play alont with my risk assesments.
Legend
Green= Low Risk
Orange= Moderate Risk (Could become high or low risk depending upon how the ridging develops, expands, or contracts)
Red= High Risk (S. Florida is not going to be saved by this feature....it is highly unlikely that it will work this far south)
Encircled "X"= The general vicinity is an Extreme Risk Area.
*edited by southerngale to add the Storm2k disclaimer
