92E INVEST [NRL has 03E.NONAME]

[Chacor]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092203
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUN 9 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hr]
TWD excerpts:

...TROPICAL WAVES..
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 90W 100W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MIXED WITH THE ITCZ .

A 1007 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 13N105W IS MOVING W 10 KT.
[hr]

Both waves are visible in this image, the one the NHC mentions in the TWO (with the associated 1007 mb LOW) is to the top left:


SAB has a floater on the 105W TW/LOW as an invest: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float6.html

[Chacor]

Probably a numbering error, but...

10/0545 UTC 12.7N 107.6W T1.0/1.0 01E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now this is a organized system...Looks like a depression coming very soon.

[Chacor]

Now 92E.

[JonathanBelles]

I can see this becoming a TD in 12-24 hours. What is that to the east of this low?

[Chacor]

This is to the east of 92E, and also looks good:

[HURAKAN]

92E looks good enough for a depression, nonetheless, it seems easterly shear is affecting the system which could hinder further development.

[Chacor]

EPAC visible...

[HURAKAN]

The first of June, stay tuned!!!

[Cyclenall]

Invest 92E looks extremely well organized and reminds me of Bud from last year (and we all know what happened next). The best looking invest for the Epac yet. I’am giving it a 80% chance of becoming the next TD and a 70% of the next named storm. Is there any QUICKSCAT data on this?

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101643
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 5 TO
10 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

This is promising but a quick life?

[Cyclenall]

Is there a certain reason this isn't being classified as a tropical depression already?

If I'm looking at the satellite loops correctly, I think I'm seeing the very start of some wrapping which is a sign of rapid intensification (however this is very low confidence). On the IR, I can't see anything like that. Seems like Bud's clone almost exactly only Bud was already a tropical storm when he looked like this.

Doesn't look like the shear is affecting it much. It is a bit noticeable though.

[HURAKAN]

Not looking as good as it did in the morning.

[Cyclenall]

*cut*

Not looking as good as it did in the morning.

Careful, looks can be deceiving in this case. I have seen this pattern on different occasions before and it could be the start of something else. It's unlikely to stay that round shape forever.

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Invest 92E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 80%
Tropical Storm: 70%
Hurricane: 35%
Major Hurricane: 3%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.4%

*The % chance rapidly goes down as the cyclone gets stronger because of the unfavorable conditions later on.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice LLC but eastly shear has exposed it to the east of the convection.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO...IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE
AIR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Cosme will have to wait, 92E not feeling very good tonight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a new burst forming right over the LLC, if that grows in size in stays. I expect this to be upgraded by tomarrow morning.

[Chacor]