Graphics of Forecast versus Actual Tracks for GOM Storms

[maverickdrew]

Good Morning!

I read the forum often during hurricane season and have a question I'd like to pose. I currently have a boat in the Destin area and we often have to "run" from storms approaching the area. For planning purposes, is there a source which would reveal the accuracy (graphically rather than text) of the NHC forecasts at 36 and 48 and 60 hours?

Comments/links will be greatly appreciated.

[Recurve]

For specific storms?

You have the averages. You can plot the distance on any given track. But no one as far as I know has lined up forcast tracks with actual tracks on a forecast-by-forecast basis for every storm, if that's what you mean. Not that it would tell you anything.

The cone of uncertainty is showing, graphically, the average track error. If you just look at the cone on the 3 and 5 day forecast graphics, you're looking at the possible (based on past track forecasts) error or variability.

That's why if you're in the cone, you've got to go. You don't focus on the "skinny black line." The storm is as likely to track near the edge of the cone, ultimately, as it is to follow the center line.

Or I don't understand the question.

[harmclan]

No I think you are correct Recurve. I believe she is trying to see the accuracy of forecasts up to 60 hours out compared to the actual track of the storm. Keep in mind that no storm has the exact same properties and elements surrounding it as another so no storm path is going to be exactly dependent on anothers, which is why predicting exact land falls can never be achieved. However I believe that http://www.wunderground.com/tropical once showed an animated graphic of the progressing models and how they changed from each run. I'm not sure if this was for active storms or for past storm though...