hurricane strike frequency

[Dionne]

TWC has a hurricane strike frequency map of the GOM and east coast. I noticed that from the big bend of Florida all the way around to south Texas there is only one area listed as ...."every 4-6 years"......it is where the Mississippi river dumps into the gulf. I wonder how "old man river" lures in storms? I have never fully understood methane hydrates that the river supposedly carries.... could these be related?

[benny]

TWC has a hurricane strike frequency map of the GOM and east coast. I noticed that from the big bend of Florida all the way around to south Texas there is only one area listed as ...."every 4-6 years"......it is where the Mississippi river dumps into the gulf. I wonder how "old man river" lures in storms? I have never fully understood methane hydrates that the river supposedly carries.... could these be related?

I think it just sticks out in the area with more water surrounding it giving higher probabilities... kind of like any peninsula with enhanced chances... like south florida... or the outer banks of north carolina.

[caneman]

Dione,

I don't believe that to be correct. According to NHC - Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers and Naples have higher returns.

Go here and you can see average return for each category on the Gulf coast

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/ba ... turn.shtml

[Dionne]

We're Katrina "veterans".....and our daughter is a "survivor".

Alot of research has been done on the Mississippi river estuary. I keep seeing suggestions of methane hydrates being deposited into the GOM via the river. Apparently these deposits increase the SST's....at the mouth of the river. Reports vary.

Could these methane hydrates and increased SST's attract storms?

Is there an expert in the house?

[caneman]

Methane Hydrates don't draw in systems like say a a magnet. While I suppose it could contribute to warmth of water it doesn't draw in storms. The warm water is more likely caused by shallow shelf, a warm current and just plain old Hot GOM add to the mix that GOM storms follow the Barmuda high to evacuate which depending on where the set up is you may get hit. Further, please see my previous post. Mississippi doesn't see the most return activity. We live near the water so we must epxect to be hit and not be surprised when we get hit. Be prepared is all you can do or move

[Berwick Bay]

Speaking of frequency. Here's one I really can't give a good explanation for. That is the lower frequency for about a 75 or so mile stretch of coast in La. SE La. has a high frequency. This extends west to about Franklin La. in St. Mary Parish (county) about a 110 miles or so west of New Orleans. But the frequency drops off (usually a yellow color) for Iberia and Vermillion Parishes as you begin to get along the SW La. Coast. Then just before arriving at the Texas border, in western Cameron Parish, there is a pick up again (back to red). Why that drop off along the S Central to SW La. Coast (excluding Cameron). My hunch is that storms tend to recurve of course taking the more northerly route toward SE La. The storms that remain on the west course trek off to Texas, leaving a lower frequency in S Central to SW La. But I don't think this really explains everything.