Quick Look Back at 2006

[Berwick Bay]

First month of the season is over and done. Pretty typical June. One minor (actually beneficial tropical storm), and don't want to forget the pre-season subtropical storm Andrea, nothing really too much out of the ordinary here either, as the rest of the month settled down with hostile conditions across the basin making development very unlikely. If I were forced to guess, I would still opt for an above average season, with La Nina in pretty much of a neutral mode and factoring in what happened just two years ago when I believe we had a La Nina to Neutral type situation.
But suppose 07 turns out not be optimal for development. I wonder if 06 might then be instructive. '06 had Alberto (typical June), next system in mid July was Beryl (pretty harmless off the east coast), also not atypical, but then into the heart of the season, conditions were not good near the shores of America. Chris showed promise and then was cut to pieces by shear (a harbinger of things to come). Later Ernesto arrived as the season began reaching her prime. Ernesto I believe would have been the "storm of the season", but her path over Cuba cut her down to size before she could inflict much damage to Fl. Later in Sept. conditions proved optimal out in the central Atlantic, with several full-fledged hurricanes there, but nothing in the western Basin as conditions close to home remained hostile(pulling back from La Nina at that time, is usually given as the reason). Repeating, I still think we'll be active in the western basin for 07, but right now I must admit, upper level winds across the basin or very hostile. Here's a look at the tracks for the storms of '06.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2006.asp

[windstorm99]

Everything was kept of to sea due to persistent trofiness of the east coast of the united states.The pattern over the last month or two has also looked similar to 06 with trofs of low pressure.Lets hope this continues through the heart of the season.Adrian

[wzrgirl1]

Everything was kept of to sea due to persistent trofiness of the east coast of the united states.The pattern over the last month or two has also looked similar to 06 with trofs of low pressure.Lets hope this continues through the heart of the season.Adrian

I am a little nervous about the placement of the bermuda high....I know this is discussed on another thread....but I thought I would bring it up as it is relevant to this topic as well