Possible low off east coast of Florida

[MiamiensisWx]

Lately, I have noticed a convective increase adjacent to the sfc low near Daytona Beach. Look at the this loop. Mid-level shear appears to be negligible, and I have noticed some hints of a broad low-level circulation. It is located near a sfc frontal boundary. Personally, I think this system may have a shot at some subtropical development. It is interacting with a baroclinic system, and this could enhance some structural organization. It is more intriguing than 96L.

In addition, the latest operational GFS run indicates the presence of 500 mbar WSW steering currents. Currently, there is a brief window of lower shear before another upper trough may induce unfavorable upper-air conditions. Mid-level dry air may contribute to a convective cap, but I believe this feature appears much more promising over the short term. It probably won't develop, but I decided to mention this possible low.

Here is a shot of the system. Most visible loops indicate that the sfc low is over the coast near Daytona Beach, but a new circulation may reform offshore.

[punkyg]

Is the low over florida right
now?

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is a personal estimation of the low's location. It is marked with a red "L", and the lines indicate the low-level circulation. It is based upon visible, shortwave, and water vapor imagery. The low could eventually reform closer to the main convective mass.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Note the evident circulation near 29N and 82W. The data supports a low on the coast near Daytona Beach, Florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This thing has been bouncing all over FL...I got 3.81 inches yesterday...My lake and preserve says drought over!

[TampaFl]

It appears that the low is elongated SW to the NE stretching from near Tampa northeast to near Daytona Beach. Plus there may be multiple mid level centers: Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida


000
FXUS62 KTBW 051346
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
945 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2007

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...VERY MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS
OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA AND INTERIOR...AND NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FA.
MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FA WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN
PUSH INLAND BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS OVER THE INTERIOR...SO
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT REGION. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER TAMPA BAY AND
CLOUDINESS FROM THERE NORTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. GRADIENT IS WEAK
IN THIS AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

[TampaFl]

[lrak]

So which way are the steering current going? Will this drift off into the Atlantic, or the GOM?

Thanks.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif



http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/metars/sfc_tpa.gif

Those images indicate that the main low may be forming over the Daytona Beach area. Those recent sfc obs would support my hypothesis. Note the NE winds at Ormond Beach and the NW winds at several stations within interior central Florida. This includes Leesburg. Some W winds have been occurring at Melbourne, while Cape Canaveral has reported variable winds. These data sets clearly indicate a closed sfc low between Flagler Beach and Cape Canaveral. Daytona Beach has reported ENE winds. Since the low is broad, it has taken some time for sfc obs to indicate counterclockwise winds.

[cpdaman]

very intresting appears the old low over tampa is washing out and the other turning may be able to wrap around in more than just a broad elongated way, but the way these lows have been dancing back and forth across and over florida for the past week has left me very skeptical of a home grown storm occuring now.

but it bears watching and we already know the NHC will not hesitate to issue an invest

although the visible is looking a bit more impressive, the pressures really are not moving much

[MiamiensisWx]

very intresting appears the old low over tampa is washing out and the other turning may be able to wrap around in more than just a broad elongated way, but the way these lows have been dancing back and forth across and over florida for the past week has left me very skeptical of a home grown storm occuring now.

but it bears watching and we already know the NHC will not hesitate to issue an invest

although the visible is looking a bit more impressive, the pressures really are not moving much

Pressures have been slowly dropping at Daytona Regional Airport. The reading has decreased to 1016 mbar (30.02 inHg). Over interior central Florida, the drop has been more impressive. Sanford has steadily decreased to 1015 mbar (29.99 inHg). The recent pressure declines are consistent, too. These are peripheral obs. The lowest pressure is likely around 1014 mbar (29.94 inHg).

On another note, the southwesterly mid-level flow has been aided by sufficient low-level moisture. Instability has increased over the Florida peninsula. This could provide some favorable thermodynamics for increasing convection, notably during the upcoming diurnal maximum. This selection of regional radar loops indicates that we have been observing increasing convective organization. Note the broad rotation, too. A sfc low definitely exists over central Florida (near Daytona Beach).

[vacanechaser]

So which way are the steering current going? Will this drift off into the Atlantic, or the GOM?

Thanks.

i will have to look, but to me it seems that the front coming in from the north may not dip far enough south to get it... as that front moves out, the ridge will build back in quickly as temps here in southeast va are expected to reach the 90's for the next 7 days for so... that would lead me to think it might move towards the gulf... but i have not looked at any model data yet to determin what might happen... the convection has increased a good bit over the past day or so...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Decomdoug]

very intresting appears the old low over tampa is washing out and the other turning may be able to wrap around in more than just a broad elongated way, but the way these lows have been dancing back and forth across and over florida for the past week has left me very skeptical of a home grown storm occuring now.

but it bears watching and we already know the NHC will not hesitate to issue an invest

although the visible is looking a bit more impressive, the pressures really are not moving much

You mean like this?

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I have not noticed any indications of a sfc low near the west coast of Florida. Radar imagery clearly indicates that there is no rotation over the Tampa area. The low is clearly over northeast Florida, and it is located between Sanford and Daytona Beach. While Melbourne NWS hasn't acknowledged the new low, Jacksonville has supported my hypothesis per their latest discussion.

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THEN MOVE SWWD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND A LO/MID LEVEL LOW
THAT APPEARS ON THE RADAR MOSAIC SOUTH OF FLAGLER CO. FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS CAN BE EXPECTED EXCEPT
THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE DWPTS ARE IN THE LO/MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE PWATS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS EASILY
DEVELOP WITH THE SEABREEZE.

MODELS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING TO THE NNE TONIGHT WITH WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO OFFSHORE AS THE LOW CONTINUES PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE ALL DAY SHOWERS END AND AFTN TSTMS OVER FL
PENINSULA RETURNS.

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER S FL THIS WEEKEND WHILE A
TROUGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING
SWLY FLOW TO THE FCST AREA AND A RETURN TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S. TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
DAY ALTHOUGH THEY COULD HAVE AN EARLY START ALONG THE WRN PORTION
OF NE FL.

.LONG TERM...THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NWD NEXT
WEEK AND REDUCE POPS TO BELOW CLIMO THRU MID PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN MID 90S.



The broad rotation is detectable on this loop. It is evidently centered near Daytona Beach.

[TheShrimper]

Don't tell me that. It will be miserable up in Daytona for the Pepsi 400. That race is plagued with adverse weather every year.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a personal estimation of the low's location. It is marked with a red "L", and the lines indicate the low-level circulation. It is based upon visible, shortwave, and water vapor imagery. The low could eventually reform closer to the main convective mass.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Note the evident circulation near 29N and 82W. The data supports a low on the coast near Daytona Beach, Florida.

that sounds just about right!

[windstorm99]

According to the NWS in MIA the weak low should move of to the NE with no significant problems.Adrian

[Aric Dunn]

although radar .. and satellite at this time show the low exiting near cape canaveral..

i have a NE wind here in daytona.. and a ssw wind melbourne

the low is a little enlogated

[MiamiensisWx]

According to the NWS in MIA the weak low should move of to the NE with no significant problems.Adrian

That doesn't translate to "no development is expected." These nontropical sfc lows can gain subtropical characteristics as they move off the coast. Many similar systems have developed under more hostile upper-level conditions. Currently, shear is decreasing over the system. Although CIMSS maps have their flaws, satellite estimates indicate favorable inflow. There is a window of opportunity before the system interacts with the next trough. In addition, there is a nice tropical moisture feed from the south. Personally, I wouldn't discount a brief trip toward some subtropical development as the low exits the coast.

[cpdaman]

looking at the visible all day;

this morning i could see two spins a more dominant one near tampa and another sign of turning over or off ne florida (vague)

by noon the low over tampa had fallen apart and the low over ne florida was taking over but it was very elongated to the SW

i think now that the low may be trying to consolidate over NE florida but it still appears elongated from just SE of daytona north north east ward 50 miles

[artist]

run the loop and it is very obvious - this is from Melbourne radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

how do you post that here or is there a way? tia