Trough East of Southern Bahamas

[tailgater]

Trough Ne of the Virgin Islands moving SW at this time is void of T-storms may need to be watched also. Thoughts?
Look @ 22N 57W on visible loop.

[tailgater]

Hey is there any mention of this system locally? Looks like it would increase pops at least.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... sat_20.gif

[boca]

The trough is still there moving WSW and theirs a little convection around 23.5n and 59w. Lets see if this blows up into something.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Looking at the water vapor it looks like an ULL.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I'm tracking ULL's again how sad.

[tailgater]

No Boca it's not a ULL but there is one very close by, it's just to the south of the ULL but then again it's been there all day along with a lot of dry air and some shear. I think deserves at least as much attention as wave to the SE.

[boca]

No Boca it's not a ULL but there is one very close by, it's just to the south of the ULL but then again it's been there all day along with a lot of dry air and some shear. I think deserves at least as much attention as wave to the SE.

I agree I've been working all day and I'm playing catch up.

[tailgater]

Could someone change the title to read something like Trough now easr of Southern Bahamas.
The structure has weaken over last 2 days but a low level twist is still noticeable and has been stuck under an ULL which I think it will start to break free of in the next couple of days. I also think that this is what the CMC is showing as a weak low in the GOM later this week.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[DrewFL]

It's a very strong TUTT with two ULL's involved. The one moving towards Cuba is what the CMC has been picking up on....I agree. Should be interesting to see if anything comes of this.

[tailgater]

Latest forecast from TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
looks similar to CMC.

[cpdaman]

looking at this it gave me a feeling of de ja vu from last year (year of the ULL)

[Aric Dunn]

in not seeing anything.. there may be a weak trough.. but its not very noticeable.... i have been really trying to see something that would show what everyone is talking about.,. but i just dont..

[DrewFL]

Upper trough: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

Another thread about the same system. "VERY INTERESTING. Model still developing a Low Pressure in Gulf" and "Wave? In Eastern Caribbean" are about the same weather feature. The CMC was developing this wave in the eastern Caribbean as it interacts with the "Trough East of the Southern Bahamas" to develop the "Low Pressure in Gulf".

I'd suggest we consolidate the three threads. Otherwise, pointless to reply any further in 3 threads about the same combination of features moving into the same region.

[SouthFloridawx]

Lots of Troughiness going on out there.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.html

[tailgater]

This barely visible trough has moved to just South of Fla and is heading into the southeastern GOM heading westward. I still think it should watched a little to see if really flares today as it has broken free of the TUTT to the east and is heading into a moist low shear area.

[ronjon]

I'm seeing a weak low or mid-level cc circulation near the NW tip of Haiti this morning. Not much convection with it but appears to be in an area of low shear. It is also the general vicinity that the CMC model was developing low pressure last week. The ULL has moved off to the west side of Jamaica and looks like it is far enough away to lessen shear over this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[storms in NC]

I don't see much happening there. But keep on the look out

[gatorcane]

Convection is starting to blow up nicely today. Could the CMC have been right about someting popping in the SE Bahamas....so far I'm pretty impressed that there is alot of activity where the CMC placed it 5 days ago...

Watching and hoping nothing develops in the SE Bahamas for the sake of us here in Florida.

[CourierPR]

Gatorcane, you have the same thoughts that I do. Convection seems to be more concentrated at this hour. The CMC has taken it on the chin from many posters.

[ronjon]

There is a small vortex spinning on the NW side of the convection north of the DR. Earlier today, there was one that dissipated near the NW tip of Haiti. There seems to be little vortices embedded in the trough. It will be interesting to see if a low pressure system can get established in that mass of convection. THe ULL that was causing the shear has departed and weakened west of JAM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[Nimbus]

The convection north of Puerto Rico is still being caused by the TUTT and ULL interacting with the surface wave.

NHC said in their 5:30 outlook no tropical formation is expected in the next 24 hours.

The ULL has been rolling west and some of the upper level low pressure over the Bahamas looks like it may be starting to fill in. The surface wave does not look like it has moved west as quickly as first thought. By morning there might be some changes in the official forecast, stranger things have happened.