This is an excerpt from this morning's
NWS discussion out of New Orleans.
The more fronts we get down here this early
the better off we will be concerning threats from
the Atlantic if and when they do develop.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH
INTO THE GULF WATERS...THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW DAYS OF CLEARING
SKIES AND NO PRECIP.
Another cold front heading south...good news?
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IMHO, it's the start of the summer. I got into a debate with a guy on the Everything Else board of saintsreport who was real optimistic that we'd have an early and chilly fall (based on dropping temps in northern Canada). It is my laymans take that the next front will not be the harbinger of continued fronts hitting the gulf through the rest of the summer, but more likely the merger that gets the Bermuda ridge in place for the heart of the hurricane season. He thought we'd be exposed for maybe 2 weeks in August. I begged to differ. Now if it turns out that the next front is just another in a series of fronts to come, he's right. We have been plagued with a super rainy July and cool (relatively) temperatures except for when the 'cool' fronts pass through us and they get back into the 90's for a couple of days. Time will tell how it all plays out.
Steve
Steve
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Re: Another cold front heading south...good news?
I think it is abnormality more then anything else. It has been a whole lot cooler this summer which as has been quite nice. However thse are not the typical cool fronts that come down in October signaling the end of hurricane season. It would be nice to say the season is done but that would be foolhardy.
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Re: Another cold front heading south...good news?
At the risk of sounding alarmist, I think it's just another ingredient in a recipe for disaster. Unless the fronts keep coming down, (unlikely) pattern will shift and put more coastal areas at risk. Just my opinion. Hoping it doesn't happen, been there done that, didn't get a t-shirt. 

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- MGC
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Re: Another cold front heading south...good news?
A stalled front in the GOM during late July/August has the potential to form a low which could become a TC. So, a front is a blessing and a potential curse. A blessing as it brings some dryer air and deflect a hurricane away from the central Gulf coast like Charley. Of course a hurricane can come out of a stalled front like Alicia did back in the 80's...........MGC
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- TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: Another cold front heading south...good news?
Additionally, any front lying across the gulf would tend to steer storms that do enter the gulf back towards the Florida west coast... like Charley.
Having fronts dropping early in the season does not bode well for Floridians unless they can push east of the state.
Our worst case scenarios become possible with fronts around... i.e. direct miami hit, across the state emerging into the warm gulf at ft. myers then steered back into the state after restrengthening and taking aim at tampa and crossing the state againt to come out at jacksonville....eek
Having fronts dropping early in the season does not bode well for Floridians unless they can push east of the state.
Our worst case scenarios become possible with fronts around... i.e. direct miami hit, across the state emerging into the warm gulf at ft. myers then steered back into the state after restrengthening and taking aim at tampa and crossing the state againt to come out at jacksonville....eek
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Re: Another cold front heading south...good news?
I think more fronts would probably put the GOM, FL and the Southern East Coast at risk. We want 500mb ridging to keep those waves moving westward, far far away from us.
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- Sean in New Orleans
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