TD 3

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Forecast/Advisory Number 1

0300 UTC Tue Jul 31 2007

tropical depression center located near 36.1n 66.0w at 31/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 20 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
12 ft seas.. 0ne 150se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 36.1n 66.0w at 31/0300z
at 31/0000z center was located near 35.5n 66.5w

forecast valid 31/1200z 38.2n 64.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/0000z 42.5n 60.0w...extratropical
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...100ne 200se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 47.5n 52.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...120ne 240se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 02/0000z 52.5n 43.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 300se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 03/0000z 58.0n 30.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 240se 0sw 0nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/0000z 61.0n 23.0w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Outlook valid 05/0000z 65.0n 15.0w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 36.1n 66.0w

next advisory at 31/0900z

$$
forecaster Franklin

[sevenleft]

170
WTNT33 KNHC 310242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THIRD CYCLONE OF THE SEASON...FORMS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND CAPE COD...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...
710 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY LATE TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...36.1 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

I've already started a thread at the active storms forum.

[chadtm80]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=96542