Vigorous Wave to Emerge Africa

[Anthonyl]

There is what seems like a vigorous tropical wave which will be moving of the Western coast of Africa in about 36 hours. The previous wave now added on the NHC analysis map should serve as a buffer to the drier air to this system.It's low lat and and the forcasted upper air dynamics would see this wave travel in rather favorable conditions for development.

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually, I have heard this before, where the wave preceding wave helps the leading wave to develop and not the other way around. Not sure why this is but I'm sure someone here can explain that.

[RL3AO]

The first wave doesn't really have any dry air to buffer.

[cheezyWXguy]

Actually, I have heard this before, where the wave preceding wave helps the leading wave to develop and not the other way around. Not sure why this is but I'm sure someone here can explain that.

The wave behind sacrifices itself and holds the SAL back from advancing to the wave ahead of it, because SAL comes from the east, not west...people tend to think its the other way around

[RL3AO]

What would make people think SAL comes from the west? Did a large desert appear in the Pacific?

[cheezyWXguy]

What would make people think SAL comes from the west? Did a large desert appear in the Pacific?

lol...i dont know, but Ive heard people say it...

[Weatherfreak14]

What would make people think SAL comes from the west? Did a large desert appear in the Pacific?

lol...i dont know, but Ive heard people say it...

I think most people would think that cuz most wind currents are to the east and not the west, just maybe a wild guess why.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical waves can encounter SAL to their west when SAL leaves Africa before the wave.

[DrewFL]

Can anyone post the latest Quickscat of the area regarding this wave. I have checked and I don't believe what I am seeing. Maybe I was at happy hour too long. Thanks in advance.

[WindRunner]

What would make people think SAL comes from the west? Did a large desert appear in the Pacific?

Let's say a huge SAL burst hits the ocean today. It fills up the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N and from the coast of Africa to 50W . . .

A week from now, there could be two waves coming off the coast of Africa in close proximity to each other time-wise. The first will hit the dry SAL environment already in place over the ocean and its moisture will go towards moderating the dry air mass . . . a "sacrifice" . . . making conditions more favorable for the wave behind it.

If this happens in reverse (i.e. waves are followed by a SAL burst), then yes, the second wave would become the sacrificial one.

[DrewFL]

Appreciate the Scatt post all. Have a great night!

[Hyperstorm]

You are not kidding!

This is quite a significant area of low pressure ready to get its feet wet over the E. Atlantic. This system is no stronger than the past several systems that have moved off the coast of Africa and have struggled, BUT the dynamics over the Cape Verde area are noticeably different this time around.

First, we have a an area of troughiness north of the Canary islands. It seems like whenever there is some trough in that general area, we have less intrusions of SAL from the deserts of Africa, which brings me to the point that there is very little dry air that this system will encounter. Second, there is a high-amplitude tropical wave moved off the coast a couple days ago that has moistened up the atmosphere ahead of this system and is located near the CV islands. Also, this system moving off is at a noticeably lower latitude than the previous systems (10-12N), which lead me to the point of warmer SSTs in its path.

With a noticeable mid-level spin (possibly surface?) in satellite pictures, this system should hold on together longer as it moves offshore. Nothing is set in stone in the tropics, but I'll be watching it for any signs of persistence.

82* and UP...

[flwxwatcher]

That appears to be the wave that the EURO is picking up on.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7080400!!/

[skysummit]

Both the EURO and Canadian show a developing system approaching the northern Leeward/Windward Islands in 144 hours. The GFS is also showing cyclonic rotation around 102 hours nearing the Islands, but no closed low. This may be the wave that exited Africa yesterday, or possibly the one that will be exiting later today.

Canadian at 144 hours:


EURO at 144 hours:


GFS at 102 hours:

[flwxwatcher]

Looking at the EURO it also shows the ridge holding strong in the WPAC. Lets see if that teleconnects to the Western Atlantic in the medium and long range.

[Meso]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/medi ... dust.x.jpg
Another really good looking wave in the middle of Africa at the moment as well.One of these waves should soon develop

[Derek Ortt]

it is the wave behind that affects the SAL

People need to undestand that the SAL is not only dry air, but also low level easterly wind shear. It is this shear that causes the center to race out ahead of the convection

[trendal]

it is the wave behind that affects the SAL

People need to undestand that the SAL is not only dry air, but also low level easterly wind shear. It is this shear that causes the center to race out ahead of the convection

Does the SAL directly affect storm formation (through dust in the air?) or is it only what you said about Easterly wind shear? Or are both things inhibiting factors of storm formation?

[Steve]

In the link provided by Meso, you have to appreciate that concentration heading toward Mali (didn't check the time of the shot). There's a lot of energy with that system. The signatures have looked good so far this year if not always the convection. It will be interesting to see how that all evolves as we head into the Cape Verde season. It won't be long.

Steve

[N2FSU]

Huge "blob" at 20W over Africa, but will it die like all the others when it hits the water?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15