Disco Stu wants to talk about 99B in Indian Oceanu

[wxmann_91]

Yikes. I've got to work on my jokes.



Disco around, folks.

Marge: "Who's Disco Stu?"

[Chacor]

This disturbance is making the monsoon worse, I'm afraid. The monsoonal rains have already killed 230.

[wxmann_91]

This disturbance is making the monsoon worse, I'm afraid. The monsoonal rains have already killed 230.

I am sorry. I had no idea. My prayers and condolences to them.

[Chacor]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6930853.stm

Governments and aid agencies are stepping up efforts to help millions of people affected by devastating floods in South Asia.

The charity Save the Children has launched an appeal for donations amid warnings of food and medical shortages.

At least 200 people have died in some of the worst floods to hit northern India, Bangladesh and Nepal in years.

[Chacor]

BOB 06/2007/01 DATED: 05th August, 2007
Sub: Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal

Yesterday’s low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal off Orissa-west Bengal coasts concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 05th August 2007 over northwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 20.00N and Long. 88.50 E, about 230 km southeast of Balasore. It is likely to intensify further, move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Orissa west Bengal coast between Paradip and Digha by to night.
Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfalls is also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic west Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Orissa & west Bengal coasts. Sea condition is rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 24 hours.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 88.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 88.4E APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF
CALCUTTA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LYING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL.
A 041202Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LLCC, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OF 15-20 KTS NEAR THE CORE. A 050130Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARD SOUTH OF THE CENTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

BOB 06/2007/02 DATED: 05th August, 2007



Sub: Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal
Morning’s depression over northwest Bay of Bengal off Orissa-west Bengal coasts remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 05th August 2007 over northwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 20.00N and Long. 88.50 E, about 230 km southeast of Balasore. It is likely to intensify further, move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Orissa - west Bengal coast between Paradip and Digha by to tonight.
Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfalls is also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic west Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Orissa & west Bengal coasts. Sea condition is rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 24 hours.

[WindRunner]

Well, I'm glad IMD finally declared this a depression. It looked just like this a couple days ago and at that point they had just declared that "a low pressure area is forming over the northern BoB" in their monsoon report . . . convection is somewhat more concentrated around (or rather near) the center now, but it'll probably just slowly drift inland as-is.


BTW, I heard the monsoonal floods have displaced over 10 million people so far . . . absolutely unimaginable . . .

[Chacor]

Upgraded.

BOB 06/2007/05 DATED: 06th August, 2007



Sub: Deep Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal
The depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and concentrated into a deep depression, lay centred at 2330 hours IST of 05th August 2007 over northwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 20.00 N and Long. 87.50 E, about 100 km southeast of Chandbali. It is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Orissa coast between Puri and Chandbali, near paradip by today forenooon, the 6th August, 2007.
Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over Orissa and Chhattisgarh during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period.
Squally winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coasts. Sea condition is rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 24 hours.

[Chacor]

Landfall.

BOB 06/2007/07 DATED: 06th August, 2007



Sub: Deep Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal crossed Orissa coast.
The deep depression over northwest Bay of Bengal, centred close to northeast of Paradip moved west-northwestwards and crossed Orissa coast to the north of Paradip between 0630 and 0730 hrs IST of today, the 6th August 2007. It lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today over coastal Orissa close to Cuttack. It is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) is likely over interior Orissa, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Padesh during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over coastal Orissa, north Telangana and Vidharbha during the same period.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[P.K.]

At what point do these systems move to the Active Storms area? BOB 0706 should be moved to the Archive area after the last advisory anyway.

[Chacor]

The problem with the active storms area is it doesn't specify for each basin. I'd say for North Indian Ocean, probably once a storm gets named. If it's moved there as a deep depression, even if it kills 200 (not unlikely) no one would notice or care.

[badkhan]

Pakistan Meteorological Department yesterday issued warnings regarding the probable regeneration of Deep Depression 06B.

Islamabad August 7, 2007
Time: 1300 hours

Special Weather Alert for Sindh / Balochistan

Sindh:

A strong Monsoon weather system (deep depression) which formed over Bay of Bengal about two days back. Now it lies west of Orissa and likely to move in a westerly direction during the next 48 hours towards the Indian Gujarat coast. Initially the system is likely to weaken.

On 9th August, 2007 it is likely to cross over Northeast Arabian Sea and then it may intensify further and in its most probable movement in subsequent 2-days (10th-11th August, 2007) is expected to be towards Balochistan coastal areas.

Under its influence widespread rains / dust thunderstorm at times heavy rainfall are likely in Sindh especially in Southern Sindh and coastal areas including Karachi on 9th & 10th August, 2007.
Scattered rains / dust storm may occur during next 36 hours also.

Sea conditions will be very rough to extremely rough along Sindh coast. Fishermen are advised to stop fishing activities from 9th August till 10th August afternoon.



Balochistan:

Later the Monsoon weather system may likely to move towards Balochistan coastal areas.

Under its influence widespread rains / dust thunderstorm with scattered heavy rainfall are also likely in Balochistan especially in coastal areas including Ormara, Lesbella, Pasni, Gawadar, Jiwani, etc. Hilly areas especially in Southern Balochistan may experience heavy rains and flash floods.

Sea conditions are also expected to be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea from 10th – 11th August, 2007.

http://www.pakmet.com.pk/monsoon.html