ex 99L becomes 92E in EPAC

[HURAKAN]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL MEXICO TO 6N
MOVE W 15 KT. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
180 NM OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ. CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG NE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.








Very impressive convective cluster but it seems the environment in the EPAC continues to be against storms.

[fci]

Any chance that this could circle the globe and come back as something like 95L????

[Chacor]

It'd probably form in the WPac if it made it there.

[gatorcane]

probably..as long as it is not in the Atlantic it has a good shot

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007

..TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W EXTENDING FROM 22N OVER S
MEXICO TO 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
8N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W IS MOST LIKELY
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO...AND IS
MOVING WEST NEAR 10 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PETERSEN

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

ex 99L now is 92E.

[RL3AO]

Go figure.

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 072233
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2233 UTC TUE AUG 7 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922007) 20070807 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070807  1800   070808  0600   070808  1800   070809  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N 103.6W   18.2N 105.3W   18.7N 106.9W   19.3N 108.6W
BAMD    17.7N 103.6W   17.8N 106.2W   17.9N 108.7W   18.1N 111.2W
BAMM    17.7N 103.6W   18.0N 105.8W   18.5N 107.9W   18.9N 110.0W
LBAR    17.7N 103.6W   18.1N 106.6W   18.5N 110.0W   19.1N 113.5W
SHIP        20KTS          28KTS          37KTS          44KTS
DSHP        20KTS          28KTS          37KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070809  1800   070810  1800   070811  1800   070812  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.5N 110.7W   22.7N 114.8W   24.7N 118.9W   27.0N 122.4W
BAMD    18.5N 113.7W   19.0N 118.9W   18.8N 123.5W   18.8N 127.3W
BAMM    19.7N 112.4W   21.2N 117.2W   21.9N 121.9W   22.9N 126.2W
LBAR    19.9N 117.2W   21.4N 123.2W   21.2N 127.0W   17.1N 129.3W
SHIP        47KTS          41KTS          32KTS          31KTS
DSHP        47KTS          41KTS          32KTS          31KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.7N LONCUR = 103.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  17.5N LONM12 = 100.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  17.3N LONM24 =  97.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE AUG 7 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...ARE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE COAST
OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND PUERTO VALLARTA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[clfenwi]

07/2345 UTC 17.7N 104.4W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC WED AUG 8 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922007) 20070808 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070808  0000   070808  1200   070809  0000   070809  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N 105.0W   18.5N 106.8W   19.1N 108.4W   19.8N 110.5W
BAMD    17.9N 105.0W   18.2N 107.6W   18.5N 110.0W   18.9N 112.6W
BAMM    17.9N 105.0W   18.4N 107.3W   19.0N 109.5W   19.5N 111.9W
LBAR    17.9N 105.0W   18.1N 108.0W   18.6N 111.4W   19.3N 114.9W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          40KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070810  0000   070811  0000   070812  0000   070813  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.8N 112.6W   22.5N 117.1W   23.7N 121.6W   25.3N 126.5W
BAMD    19.5N 115.2W   20.2N 120.5W   20.0N 125.3W   19.7N 129.2W
BAMM    20.3N 114.3W   21.3N 119.5W   21.4N 124.4W   21.4N 129.2W
LBAR    20.2N 118.5W   21.9N 124.3W   21.8N 128.0W   18.8N 131.2W
SHIP        42KTS          35KTS          27KTS          27KTS
DSHP        42KTS          35KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.9N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  17.6N LONM12 = 102.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  17.3N LONM24 =  97.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Chacor]

EP, 92, 200708082345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1770N, 10420W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, GR, VI, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T, DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
EP, 92, 200708082345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1770N, 10440W, , 3, 25, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, GR, VI, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T,

General agreement between TAFB and SAB.

[Cyclone1]

If it forms, will anybody else who watches primarily the Atlantic feel like 99L cheated on us with the Epac?

[windycity]

Oh,most definetly.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 08 2007

...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W EXTENDING FROM 4N TO 20N. A
1010 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES/TROPICAL WAVE
HAS MOVED NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TONIGHT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST FROM 19N TO 23N E OF 107W. PUERTO VALLARTA REPORTED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 20 KT. STRONG SELY
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA ARE KEEPING THE CONVECTION
SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REACH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT

[AnnularCane]

No, but I've always thought of 99L as "he", and if this becomes Flossie, well...it will feel a bit weird.

[Cyclone1]

No, but I've always thought of 99L as "he", and if this becomes Flossie, well...it will feel a bit weird.

Looks like the 99L curse is affecting 92E. Sheer is non favorable. We got the last laugh, though, little cheater can't come crawling back now! Conditions are great in the Caribbean. How do you like us now, 99L?! Hah! You have two choices, die or become a female. You did this to yourself.

[HURAKAN]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W EXTENDING FROM 6N TO 20N HAS
EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 18N106W MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. MOST
OF ITS STRONG CONVECTION WELL N OF CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG
S UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER AREA AND ITS PROXIMITY TO COOL
SST GIVES SYSTEM LITTLE CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING.

It's OK to give up sometimes!!!

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

I don't think I've ever seen a stronger and more persistent non-former.