WPac: Former INVEST 93W

[Chacor]

I said in the Wutip thread yesterday,

What I'm wondering is whether a third (fourth, if you count 06W to be part of it) storm will form from this monsoon trof. That area east of Wutip looks interesting.

Well, we now have an INVEST from that:

[RL3AO]

i cant tell them apart

[Chacor]

Wutip is over southern Taiwan and northern Philippines.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA are listing this as a low pressure area at the moment:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 141E WEST 10 KT.

[Chacor]

It ate Wutip for breakfast I think.

TD
Issued at 03:00 UTC, 9 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0707 WUTIP (0707)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 23N 122E
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA

[Chacor]

JMA are listing this as a low pressure area at the moment:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 141E WEST 10 KT.

Wrong area, Typhoon Hunter.

06Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 22N 126E WEST SLOWLY.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Odd, there's no TD on the 12z JMA chart, not even the remains off Wutip.

However there are two LPAs at the moment:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 15N 141E NNW SLOWLY. - Invest 94W
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 19N 151E WNW 10 KT. - Invest 91W

[HurricaneRobert]

94W looks much better.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.3N 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 092059Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE A TIGHT
AREA OF TURNING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE TIGHTEST TURNING, AND HAS YET TO WRAP TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. PRESSURE FALLS IN THE REGION ARE ON THE ORDER OF
2 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE AREA IS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA now listing this as a TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 25N 123E NORTH SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 25.3N 123.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[WindRunner]

Well, it was obviously a monsoonal depression . . . if the shear had been less, we could have very easily had a fourth TC out of the trough . . .


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 26.5N 122.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Coredesat]

Beginning to look better:

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.5N 122.5E TO 32.3N 124.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
101730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N
122.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.3N
126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 122.9, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TIGHT AREA OF TURNING
WITHIN A BROADER GYRE TYPE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF THE TIGHTEST
TURNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION. PRESSURE FALLS IN THE REGION ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 6 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE AREA IS IN A REGION
OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. SINCE
THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 112130Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

This is right in my neighbourhood.

Had pretty disturbed weather here in Shanghai but looks like this is moving NNE and won't bring anything too bad here.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Atrocious conditions in Shanghai now, torrential rain. Could well cause some flooding.

[Chacor]

Just checked Google Earth, 06Z JMA position is just southeast of Shanghai offshore.

[Hurricanehink]

WTPN21 PGTW 111130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION //
RMKS/
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102121Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 102130)//
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 124.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 124.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110516Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEAL A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WEST OF
A BAND OF PATCHY CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN CHINA, WHICH IS
INTRODUCING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAUSING THE
DISTURBANCE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IT WILL TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND IS UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN TROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//

[WindRunner]

Well, I know this is old, but I'd like to point out that we have a system with convection very near the center (yes, it's quite sheared) with a couple 35kt barbs on QS, and it's a 992hPa depression from JMA as it is about to make landfall on the northern coast of the Yellow Sea. They won't be naming a system as it makes landfall at this latitude, but it could have very easily been classified as a TC for the past 24-36 hours . . . but somehow it wasn't . . .

Oh, and new QS even has an unflagged 40kt vector . . .

[Chacor]

JMA declared it extratropical at 06Z.

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 38N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.