Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is where we can discuss the recon obs...

[Extremecane]

I think they will find a cat 2 storm

[SouthFloridawx]

400 or so miles from the outer fringes of dean.

[JonathanBelles]

I think hey will find a cat 2 as well. When does the recon data go into the models?

[Brent]

I think hey will find a cat 2 as well. When does the recon data go into the models?

0z runs tonight.

I also expect them to find a Cat 2.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well the G-IV, won't be in until this weekend... But, I'm not too sure about when and how they use the data from the Recon flights into systems.

[SouthFloridawx]

200 miles to the outer fringes now.

[x-y-no]

starting descent:

162400 1607N 05829W 3994 07618 0427 -160 -268 088023 023 027 005 00
162430 1607N 05827W 4107 07424 0424 -147 -269 085026 026 028 004 03
162500 1606N 05824W 4288 07088 0400 -120 -271 078028 029 999 999 03
162530 1606N 05822W 4477 06757 0380 -096 -278 077026 027 999 999 03

[marcane_1973]

Gulfstreem not until this weeekend? I thought they were leaving later today.

[senorpepr]

According to the Plan of the Day and the discussions, the G-IV is flying this afternoon/evening so that the data is available for the 17/00Z model suites. Another synoptic mission is schedule for tomorrow afternoon/evening as well. I would expect this would continue for a few days as the system approaches and crosses the Caribbean Sea.

[HenkL]

Recon positions for GoogleEarth: http://wxgr.nl/tmppic/WXRecon.kml.
Shows wind direction (degrees) and high windspeed (knots) at flight level. Latest position in red.
File is self refreshing every 5 minutes.

[Stratosphere747]

Well the G-IV, won't be in until this weekend... But, I'm not too sure about when and how they use the data from the Recon flights into systems.

As Senor addressed this is an incorrect statement.

We should see a reflection is this evenings GFS run starting around 9/10 cst.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well the G-IV, won't be in until this weekend... But, I'm not too sure about when and how they use the data from the Recon flights into systems.

As Senor addressed this is an incorrect statement.

We should see a reflection is this evenings GFS run starting around 9/10 cst.

I'm sorry, what I meant was about the data... not the flight.

[Stratosphere747]

Well the G-IV, won't be in until this weekend... But, I'm not too sure about when and how they use the data from the Recon flights into systems.

As Senor addressed this is an incorrect statement.

We should see a reflection is this evenings GFS run starting around 9/10 cst.

I'm sorry, what I meant was about the data... not the flight.

Not a problem South. I've been trying to impress upon all the folks in the discussion thread about how important this data will be to the longer track confidence. So much speculation is going on, but that seems to be what everyone gets off on. Until this data is ingested, everyone in the Gulf from Eastern Florida to our friends in Mexico should be patient.

[Lowpressure]

Bird approaching system, this should be interesting. Any bets on mb pressure? I say 969-972mb

[DESTRUCTION5]

Least we have TS force winds..LOL

[SouthFloridawx]

Bird approaching system, this should be interesting. Any bets on mb pressure? I say 969-972mb

Can't wait for that vortex message.

[Brent]

Bird approaching system, this should be interesting. Any bets on mb pressure? I say 969-972mb

That sounds about right, solid Cat 2 IMO.

[cyclonic chronic]

970-975mb is my guess, 100-105mph

[Lowpressure]

Yeah, no open wave here. The quick motion may help the islands a bit as nasty weather should move quickly through. I know it will be rough but at least this one is moving along.