Area of convection (Former 92L)

[cycloneye]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97268&start=0

You can continue the discussions about this area here.If is a invest again it will go to Active storms forum.

[ronjon]

Well, as of 8 AM this morning, TPC was still thinking some development.

[tailgater]

look what the hwrf does with it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... 007082106-

[Sjones]

look what the hwrf does with it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... 007082106-

Can't pull that link up.

[skysummit]

12z guidance was still run....

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070821 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070821  1200   070822  0000   070822  1200   070823  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.7N  66.9W   27.7N  69.7W   28.3N  72.1W   28.9N  73.8W
BAMD    26.7N  66.9W   27.7N  69.9W   28.6N  71.9W   29.4N  73.2W
BAMM    26.7N  66.9W   27.6N  69.9W   28.3N  72.3W   29.0N  73.9W
LBAR    26.7N  66.9W   28.3N  70.3W   29.5N  72.6W   30.3N  73.9W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          41KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070823  1200   070824  1200   070825  1200   070826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.4N  75.1W   29.7N  76.8W   29.4N  78.7W   29.1N  81.2W
BAMD    30.0N  73.9W   30.6N  74.3W   30.8N  74.3W   31.6N  74.8W
BAMM    29.5N  74.9W   30.0N  75.9W   29.6N  76.7W   29.4N  78.3W
LBAR    30.4N  74.7W   31.7N  74.3W   33.5N  73.6W   33.6N  71.8W
SHIP        49KTS          63KTS          72KTS          77KTS
DSHP        49KTS          63KTS          72KTS          77KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.7N LONCUR =  66.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  26KT
LATM12 =  24.4N LONM12 =  61.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =  25KT
LATM24 =  22.7N LONM24 =  56.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Zardoz]

Well, as of 8 AM this morning, TPC was still thinking some development.

Should bring some much-needed rain, at least:

GOES East Rainbow

[Zardoz]

look what the hwrf does with it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... 007082106-

Can't pull that link up.

Me, neither.

[cycloneye]

12z guidance was still run....

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070821 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070821  1200   070822  0000   070822  1200   070823  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.7N  66.9W   27.7N  69.7W   28.3N  72.1W   28.9N  73.8W
BAMD    26.7N  66.9W   27.7N  69.9W   28.6N  71.9W   29.4N  73.2W
BAMM    26.7N  66.9W   27.6N  69.9W   28.3N  72.3W   29.0N  73.9W
LBAR    26.7N  66.9W   28.3N  70.3W   29.5N  72.6W   30.3N  73.9W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          41KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070823  1200   070824  1200   070825  1200   070826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.4N  75.1W   29.7N  76.8W   29.4N  78.7W   29.1N  81.2W
BAMD    30.0N  73.9W   30.6N  74.3W   30.8N  74.3W   31.6N  74.8W
BAMM    29.5N  74.9W   30.0N  75.9W   29.6N  76.7W   29.4N  78.3W
LBAR    30.4N  74.7W   31.7N  74.3W   33.5N  73.6W   33.6N  71.8W
SHIP        49KTS          63KTS          72KTS          77KTS
DSHP        49KTS          63KTS          72KTS          77KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.7N LONCUR =  66.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  26KT
LATM12 =  24.4N LONM12 =  61.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =  25KT
LATM24 =  22.7N LONM24 =  56.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


Hmm,maybe it will be up again soon.

[tailgater]

look what the hwrf does with it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... 007082106-

Can't pull that link up.

Me, neither.

My bad guys. Just go this site and run animation on hwrf 06 run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Sjones]

12z guidance was still run....

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070821 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070821  1200   070822  0000   070822  1200   070823  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.7N  66.9W   27.7N  69.7W   28.3N  72.1W   28.9N  73.8W
BAMD    26.7N  66.9W   27.7N  69.9W   28.6N  71.9W   29.4N  73.2W
BAMM    26.7N  66.9W   27.6N  69.9W   28.3N  72.3W   29.0N  73.9W
LBAR    26.7N  66.9W   28.3N  70.3W   29.5N  72.6W   30.3N  73.9W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          41KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070823  1200   070824  1200   070825  1200   070826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.4N  75.1W   29.7N  76.8W   29.4N  78.7W   29.1N  81.2W
BAMD    30.0N  73.9W   30.6N  74.3W   30.8N  74.3W   31.6N  74.8W
BAMM    29.5N  74.9W   30.0N  75.9W   29.6N  76.7W   29.4N  78.3W
LBAR    30.4N  74.7W   31.7N  74.3W   33.5N  73.6W   33.6N  71.8W
SHIP        49KTS          63KTS          72KTS          77KTS
DSHP        49KTS          63KTS          72KTS          77KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.7N LONCUR =  66.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  26KT
LATM12 =  24.4N LONM12 =  61.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =  25KT
LATM24 =  22.7N LONM24 =  56.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


Hmm,maybe it will be up again soon.

I agree, I just can't see writing this thing off just yet. Conditions do seem to be favorable

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

I agree, I just can't see writing this thing off just yet. Conditions do seem to be favorable

If you look at a WV loop, there is an ULL over Hispaniola which is causing a lot of shear on this system. Not very favorable.

[cycloneye]

If 92L goes up again,these posts on this thread will be merged with the 92L thread at Active Storms forum.

[ronjon]

Clearly a low pressure system at the surface with rotation seen on VIS SAT near 25N-67.5W. This system reminds me of the early stages of Erin when that ULL low was inhibiting development and it had to create some distance before development happened. With the ULL in the vicinity, I see a highly sheared weak system that may gradually develop with time. Just have to wait and see. If anything, it should bring some much needed rain to the FL peninsula this Thursday or Friday.

[HURAKAN]

If this graphic is correct, then the shear isn't very strong over the system to inhibit development.

[tolakram]

from the 8:05AM TWD:

...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF
29N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 24.5N. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO
28N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND
63W...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W INCLUDING ON TOP
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ON TOP OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO BARBUDA.
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1205.shtml?

[Steve]

>>I wouldn't be so quick to write this system off yet. Looks like it will develop, just slowly:

Not sure if it will or if it won't, but nearly all of the 00z global models depict a ripple at the surface in their runs. Whether this ends up being something classified, an inverted trough, simply an area of low pressure or whatever, it's August 21. That's the time of year you have to watch everything.



Steve

[x-y-no]

Between the influence of the strong ULL to the southwest and dry air advection, I'd give this no better than a 10% chance to develop.

[wxman57]

If you look at a WV loop, there is an ULL over Hispaniola which is causing a lot of shear on this system. Not very favorable.

That is correct, a very large upper low has developed just west of the tropical wave, drawing the moisture in. Conditions beneath the upper low are not favorable for development. The tropical (BAM) models should not be used out of the deep tropics for guidance, and they don't handle such wave-upper low interactions very well. Intensity guidance will not work well either, as there is an assumption that the disturbance has a 25kt LLC right now, which it doesn't.

I notice that the global models didn't initialize the upper low very well, but they do show an upper trof in the region of 92L and move that trof west across the Gulf to Mexico over the coming week. Certianly possible, that's what we just observed ahead of the ridge blocking Dean. Tropical development chances are low, but not nonexistent. Always have to watch ANY thunderstorms out over the water this time of year.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I thought people did not want to consider NRL the official word?

Anyways, NRL currently has an error that does not display Invest 92L.

Position updates are still in fact being made as of 12Z today:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest

Invest 92L has not been deleted nor deactivated.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 922007.ren
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 922007.ren

Because neither file exists.

Therefore, Invest 92L is still active. If a position update is not made after 12 or 18 hours or so, then it is up to you if you where you want the invest, but as for this one, this is an invest. As mentioned, models are still being run:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/9 ... maps.shtml

I notice the invest is lacking the normal early cycle models in the full NHC model suite, so perhaps that threw something in the NRL system for a loop.