Why so quiet after Dean

[boca]

I was wondering why the tropics look so quiet. Yes I know we just had Dean, the ITCZ isn't even active across the Atlantic to Africa. I was thinking that the Azores high might be causing the lack of vertical uplift out there.Their is actually nothing tropical going on worldwide right now.

[Frank2]

Well, better than the U.S. having to deal with one major landfalling hurricane after another - the Country's resources are already stretched very thin...

So, consider it a blessing...

[boca]

Other than what's coming off of Africa which will probably go poof in this pattern it looks like a June month out there.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[DESTRUCTION5]

I call it the CALM before September...I have a feeling were gonna be looking at a rapid fire train of storms thru September and 1 or 2 October Carribean type storms..(note: Dean really cooled off the Carribean last week)

[weatherwoman]

well i know its quite out there right now but here in north carolina the pecan trees are full of pecans so i think we will end up with something this year, last time our trees looked like this we had two hits that year

[CrazyC83]

I call it the CALM before September...I have a feeling were gonna be looking at a rapid fire train of storms thru September and 1 or 2 October Carribean type storms..(note: Dean really cooled off the Carribean last week)

My September prediction (not counting August carryovers which I think there might be next week) is 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

[Ptarmigan]

Dean scared all the storms and hurricanes away.

[jaxfladude]

The following is a wishcast and should be treated as such:

HURRICANE DEAN WAS THE GRAND FINALE FOR THIS SEASON.
The conditions are now too hostile for any more tropical development.....see all of you next season on June 1st, 2008 for the that year's lull to last until mid August of 2008....

[jaxfladude]

I call it the CALM before September...I have a feeling were gonna be looking at a rapid fire train of storms thru September and 1 or 2 October Carribean type storms..(note: Dean really cooled off the Carribean last week)

My September prediction (not counting August carryovers which I think there might be next week) is 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Potential Disaster-Wanters

[HURRICANELONNY]

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA REMAINS WEAK
THIS MORNING. THIS WEAK PATTERN IS MAINLY DUE TO AN UNUSUAL (FOR
AUGUST) COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE SUBTROPICS ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N42W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N52W CONTINUING ALONG 25N60W
THEN DISSIPATING TO 31N67W. A RECENT QSCAT PASS DEPICTED THIS
BOUNDARY WELL...MARKING IT AS A PRONOUNCED NLY WIND SHIFT AND
INCREASE TO 20 KT ON THE N SIDE NEAR THE LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AND A SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCUMULUS DECK BEHIND IT. A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 55W FROM 15N-21N. THIS
BOUNDARY IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
DOES SHOW UP WELL IN CLOUD DRIFT WINDS AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE LOW-LATITUDE BOUNDARIES HAVE GREATLY BROKEN UP THE TYPICAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALLOWING TRADES TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA.

[la wave]

IMHO, the LSU ESL graphics shows it all. I am going to predict that nothing will occur in the Atlantic Basin for the next week. There is a lot of dry air between Africa and the CS. Thank you for allowing me to post.

[RL3AO]

I know. OMG there hasn't been a storm in FOUR days. That darn global cooling.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I "forecast" 50 named storms 40 of them becoming hurricanes with 20 becoming majors. 5 cat5s in Sept alone. All moving westward on the southern side of the Azore high one cape verde wave into a cyclone at a spaced apart of 10 degrees. All this is expecting to start the first.



I think what is stopping development is the dry air at mid levels is not allowing convection to form with in the Atlatnic. Dean got lucky. At least intill above.j/k

Also feel the the strong Azores can be a 20/20 sword for development of cyclone. One it keeps them westward but one that is to strong can help form dry air through out the Atlatnic. Which kills devleopment.

[KWT]

There is dry air BUT that should ease somewhat in the next 10 days, the Azores high core has moved about 500 miles further north over the last 7 days which may open a window of chance between 7-10 days time before the high heads back south again. Its still strong mind you and it has pushed a lot of stable air into the tropical Atlantic...the movement of the Azores high is probably why several models are picking up on tropical development in the slightly longer term.