From the Galveston paper:
Now that we have dried out from Tropical Storm Erin and escaped the wrath of Hurricane Dean, what can we expect for the remainder of the season?
Two ways to answer this are: 1. to look at the season hurricane predictions and see what might be expected for the North Atlantic Basin overall, and 2. to survey our climate data and see historically what we might anticipate for the remainder of the season locally (the photograph above is of downtown Galveston during Tropical Storm Delia in September,1973).
First, let us review the predictions.
The National Weather Service earlier this season forecast 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. Subtracting, the five systems we've had since this prognostication, we would expect (assuming it is accurate) 8-12 more named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, of which 2-4 would become major (Category 3 or above) hurricanes.
William Gray at Colorado State issued his update on August 3rd. His revised forecast, projected 15 more named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major storms. Subtracting the three storms that have developed since then, we would come up with 12 more named storms and 7 hurricanes (including 3 major hurricanes).
UKMET also offered a season prediction in July. Their outlook projected 10 named storms as the most likely number for this season. Subtracting the 3 that have occurred since then, we should expect 7 more storms.
So, if we consider the outlooks of these various forecasters, we may see anywhere from 7 to 12 more named storms yet in the Atlantic Basin, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.
Looking at our weather history gives us another way to assess what is likely to happen locally for the remainder of the season. Based on this climate data, you might say it is "the time of the season", as the 1960's song by the Zombies goes.
Counting all tropical storms and hurricanes that have either directly struck the upper-Texas coast, or have been damaging near misses, from 1851 through 2006, here is what we find:
(Number of storms by month)
June- 18; July- 14; August- 20;
September- 28; October- 5; November- 0.
If we divide the entire season in groups of ten (or eleven) days, we find this:
June:
1st-10th = 3 storms
11th-20th = 4 storms
21st-30th = 11 storms
July:
1st-10th = 4 storms
11th-20th = 2 storms
21st-31st = 8 storms
August:
1st-10th = 6 storms
11th-20th = 8 storms
21st-31st = 6 storms
September:
1st-10th = 8 storms
11th-20th = 14 storms
21st-30th = 6 storms
October:
1st-10th = 3 storms
11th-20th = 2 storms
21st-31st = 0 storms
Historically, 56% of our tropical storms or hurricanes have occurred in either the month of August or September. 39% these storms have occurred after August.
Mid-September is the most likely 10-day period during the season to have a storm in the Galveston area, with late June in second place (though many of the June storms tend to be weak, relative to the August or September ones).
The storm threat drops dramatically, beginning in late September and October and all but disappears by late October and November.
On the positive side, if we can make it through another 3-4 weeks without a storm, our odds will improve dramatically. Only around 13% of our tropical storms or hurricanes have occurred after September 20th and a little under 6% after September 30th.
Also, on the positive side, there are hints of a pattern change next week, with a low pressure trough developing over the East Coast. This would tend to deflect hurricanes moving through the Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean to the north and our east.
On the negative side, this change might send a storm in the Bay of Campeche or the northwest Caribbean, towards the Texas coast. And, we still have those busy first three weeks of September to contend with.
