ref:
I've stiched together the ATL and EPAC regions. The red hurricane symbols are the TPC forecast positions at 96 hr.
Note how both Henriette and Felix have UL anticyclones sitting on top of them. The ouflow pattern for Henriette is extremely favorable. If this map verifies, outflow from Henriette would be funneled into TX. The equatorial outflow channel looks good for Henriette as well. Felix's outflow pattern is not so good, but that's not a surprise: it will likely be a relatively small cyclone.
The big questions are of course...
1) How are the thermodynamics around Henriette?
2) How strong are Henriette and Felix at the time of the image?
3) WHERE are they?
Let's start with #3; the answer to that will determine 1 and 2. The ECMWF actually bombs Henriette as it moves into the Sea of Cortez, similar to Ignacio in 2003. Given the environment Henriette would be in, if it were to go through that route, it could become a rather strong hurricane. BUT, the GFS shows a more offshore track. This track would steer Henriette into the marine layer (that is, Henriette engulfs stable air and weakens rapidly). The ECMWF track, FWIW, would also place Henriette closer to Felix, that may become a problem for Mr. Felix.
I think I've answered #1 and #2 with #3. As you can see, the situation coming up will be interesting to say the least.
Now, I'm not saying there's going to be any Fujiwhara interaction or something like that... both storms are way too far apart. But some interesting (and bad) things can happen.
-First of all, could the outflow from Henriette shear Felix? Note how the 200mb winds in the GOM are progged to be northerly. Ideally, they would be southwesterly, although that's not a prerequisite by any stretch of the mind. Still, if we shifted Henriette to the east (which is what the ECM does), there would be some northerly shear that could impact Felix.
-Second, if things line up just right, the outflow from the combined systems could unleash torrents of rain in areas saturated by Dean. There is very strong upper diffluence over Mexico and central America as a result of the outflow channels from the two storms.
Discuss...