Humberto grew faster then any storm on record.

[flwxwatcher]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070913/ap_ ... e_humberto

[Honeyko]

To be fair, it helps when you're a slow-moving storm not very far from Mobile, where all the airplanes sit.

[Category 5]

It did seem to come out of nowhere. Anyone who says they saw it coming is lying.

[wxman57]

It also helped that the NHC was slow to call it a depression. One could argue that it was a TD at least 12 hours before it was officially called a TD.

[MiamiensisWx]

Some rapid intensification events were probably undetected. Older satellite estimates were unreliable prior to the '80s. The quality and resolution did not approach today's technology. Small eyes and inner core changes were relatively unmonitored via satellite imagery. You relied on reconnaissance data, ship reports, and land estimates/reports in the Atlantic basin. Data was much more sparse in the Pacific basin and Indian Ocean, so Gonu was probably not an unprecedented event. Several satellite images during the '80s and '90s indicate some intense systems (probably +Cat. 4) in the Arabian Sea and BOB, but they were classified as <Category 2 (SSHS) equivalents. Many RI events (similar to Wilma, Humberto, Michelle, numerous Pacific typhoons, etc.) were probably missed globally, so the errors in historical records are not confined to the Atlantic basin. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is a prime example. It deepened +40 mbar over the Straits of Florida (between Andros, Bahamas and the FL Keys). Here is an excerpt from the best track estimates. It strengthened from a marginal (~65 kts) Category 1 hurricane to an extremely intense Category 5 hurricane within ~36 hours.

14 23.70 -77.30 09/01/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
15 23.80 -78.10 09/01/18Z 75 - HURRICANE-1
16 23.90 -78.60 09/02/00Z 90 - HURRICANE-2
17 24.00 -79.00 09/02/06Z 105 - HURRICANE-3
18 24.20 -79.30 09/02/12Z 120 - HURRICANE-4
19 24.30 -79.70 09/02/18Z 130 - HURRICANE-4
20 24.50 -80.10 09/03/00Z 140 892 HURRICANE-5

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/index.html

65 kts (75 mph) to 140* kts (160 mph) within ~36 hours (9/01/12Z - 9/03/00Z)

*Winds were likely stronger (~160 kts) at landfall on FL Keys because of the following: 1) small RMW (i.e. Charley); and 2) ~892 mb ctrl pressure.

Some Category 5 candidates probably have been missed in the HURDAT database. Here are some probable Atlantic storms:

1) Hurricane 10 (1932) - A ship reported ~914 mb in the Caribbean Sea, while pressures near ~950 mb were recorded after the storm crossed Cuba. This hurricane destroyed the town of Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba; a large storm surge inundated the area. I tend to believe this storm rapidly intensified in the southern Caribbean and "maxed out" near ~145 kts (165 mph).

2) Hurricane Inez (1966) - This small intense hurricane "maxed out" at ~130 kts (150 mph) S of Puerto Rico. A reconnaissance aircraft recorded a central pressure near ~927 mb. Inez is a noted hurricane with a small RMW, so it likely was stronger than recorded in HURDAT. Winds probably reached ~140 kts (160 mph).

Several storms in the 1800s were either 1) undetected or 2) grossly underestimated, especially because of sparse data.

Finally, similar Humberto-type events (intensification from ~TD/TS to Cat. 1) occurred under nearly identical upper-air conditions. Debra '59 and Claudette '03 are notable examples. There are more similarly analogous events, but I can't recall them at the time. Here is an interesting paper (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/NHR-Cuba.pdf) on Caribbean hurricanes (Chris Landsea and others). Here is an intriguing excerpt on two hurricanes (Storm Seven '24 and Storm Ten '32). They are listed as Category 5 hurricanes, in spite of their Category 3 and 4 designations in HURDAT:

"bSame as previous remark, except that the 1924 hurricane was called ‘‘the unprecedented hurricane’’ for it was a powerful Category 5 hurricane with
lowest pressure 921.8 mb.
cThe 1932 hurricane was also a Category 5 hurricane. Lowest pressure on a ship south of Cuba was 914.6 mb. It was remarkable for the huge storm surge
of 6.5 m at Santa Cruz del Sur, Camaguey. The town was swept away. There were 2,870 deaths out of a population of 4,800 in that coastal town. Estimated
winds at landfall were 140 kt, gusting up to 180 kt."

Both storms made landfall on Cuba. The reanalysis project will probably bump their maximum intensities to ~140-145 kts (160-165 mph).

[ROCK]

I have an opinion on why "H" strenghten so quickly.....

Dr Neil Frank once said that " cyclones are like an ice skater who is spinning". Arms extended, the skater spins at a slower speed. Arms in, the skater increases their speed quickly.......

Looking back, Humberto was forming a MLC for 3 days before it reached the surface close to the coast. Once that LLC started and its feeder bands started to take shape, I believe land interaction actually aided in developement. IE it caused Humberto to bring in his arms and consolidate a center quicker than expected. Of course other things contributed....High sst's, light shear, and its slow movement.

To date, I have not seen a study done relating to land interaction and its relation to strengthening.....My point is, land actually aided in Humberto's ultimate Cat 1 classification....


of course this is just my IMO but I seen this happen more than once. A current example... When Dean interacted with Hisp, You could easily see him tighten up and consolidate its convection more towards the center. Protecting its core... If you needed water to live and land would kill you, wouldnt you take measures to protect yourself if a land crossing was inevitable.

[Ivanhater]

It also helped that the NHC was slow to call it a depression. One could argue that it was a TD at least 12 hours before it was officially called a TD.

To be fair, you were slow to call it a TD as well, I remember your images saying it was just a sharp trough and most likely just a rainmaker for Texas, then bam full blown hurricane hits, much to be learned from this storm in post-analysis...not calling you out..just throwing it out there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It did seem to come out of nowhere. Anyone who says they saw it coming is lying.

Joe Bastardi, on his pay per view column, a week ago today, predicted a tropical cyclone would form in the Gulf and hit Texas mid to late week, and early afternoon after the AC had been in (partly based on eye temperature) he thought it would hit 990 mb at landfall.


Bastardi now saying at least one hurricane, probably a major, hits Florida or the Gulf next 6 to 10 days, and says while not to focus exactly on Euro landfall prediction, Euro has right idea on lowering pressure in Caribbean, reversal of shearing pattern down there, and a pattern that pulls whatever is in Caribbean into Gulf or Atlantic just off Florida.


JB has also said he has backed off, but not completely abandoned, idea of remnant low of Humberto regenerating to a TD or weak TC and hitting Northern Mexico/South Texas.

[Aslkahuna]

WRT satellite imagery. The Military DMSP POES visual imagery had sub kilometer resolution in the late 1970's as did the Russian POES birds which were originally part of their Spy satellite program. However, at that time their use was restricted to Military use only.

Steve

[Frank2]

Guess we could call it "Humbling Humberto" - since it did something no other system did, and, shows just how little is known of the Earth...