Not too much out there...

[Frank2]

...at this time - aside from a cluster of thunderstorms in the central Gulf (part of the larger trough), there really isn't much out there this morning, considering that both Atlantic systems have weakened, and, minimal TS Jerry is only a maritime issue...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

I know I'm going to get pounded for saying this, but, that's what I see...

[boca]

Where going to get alot of rain here in S FL due to a trough though its not tropical in nature the next few days.

[Frank2]

I'm glad to here that - the Lake needs all the rain it can get...

Over the last few days, the weather reminds me of the movie Castaway - booming thunder and pouring rain - a true tropical weather environment...

[DESTRUCTION5]

LOL..Frank..One thing I think you are right about in this post is YOU WILL be pounded...

[gatorcane]

Frank2 the GFDL on several runs now develops invest 97L over the next 24-48 hours and ultimately brings it in the SE Bahamas as a hurricane. GFDL wants to build a ridge building over the Eastern CONUS as well. That setup
could get interesting for SE Florida if 97L can actually develop (and of course that is a big IF).
In addition, the GFDL shows 97L getting very close to Puerto Rico but as a strong tropical storm.

This synoptic pattern is more like late August or early September.
This may be the first time this season a respectable global model wants to bring someting into our neck of the woods. (CMC not included. )

I don't think it is quiet out there at all.

[Frank2]

Well, that's why I didn't mention the quiet word (I like that word), but, just thought I'd mention that there isn't much out there this morning (as compared to a day or two ago, for example)...

As for 97L's future, you know how that can go - it'll change from run to run...

As of now, 97L is almost stationary and fairly weak, so, hard to say what I'll do...

[Frank2]

Per my guess over the weekend, 96L still seems to be the disturbance with the most "promise", at least as far as development is concerned...

[Sanibel]

Well, from the looks of it Cape Verde has absolutely not shut down. This looks like a classic big storm under development. We had better hope for a fall front steering environment.

[Steve]

Apparently not a lot going on in the TWO either??????

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 945
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME....
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 730 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT COULD
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[flwxwatcher]

LOL..Frank..One thing I think you are right about in this post is YOU WILL be pounded...

It is what he wants you know.

[KWT]

I nearly had a shock attack when i saw this topic...seriously we've just had Jerry (still a TD I may add) Invest 96L is probably less then 24hrs away from being a TD and possibly beocming a strong hurricane, 94L also isn't all that far away from becoming a TD from current sat images. 97L is being sheared right now and out of the whole lot probably has the least chance of doing anything but its heading for the Caribbean, it may have a shot there.

We are going to have seen at least 4 systems in the period of 5-7 days, Td10, TS Jerry and probably both invest 94L+96L. Because of the shear I'll err on the side of caution with 97L but...

[Frank2]

As Archie Bunker would say, "That's the pernt"...

...Invest 96L is probably less then 24hrs away from being a TD and possibly beocming a strong hurricane, 94L also isn't all that far away from becoming a TD from current sat images. 97L is being sheared right now and out of the whole lot probably has the least chance of doing anything but its heading for the Caribbean, it may have a shot there.

That was my point - the map shows many systems that are described as "probable", "possible", and "might become" - in other words, nothing much at this time...

P.S. I changed the topic wording - hope that helps...

[KWT]

Well even wxman57 said 96L was the best looking non-TD he'd ever seen so I'm pretty sure that one will be upgraded...
i think this is going to be a case of waiting 24-48hrs then revising the title topic, not sure you could call 2 strong invests, a tropical depression and one invest heading towards the Caribbean not 'much out there' however, sure they may not be hurricanes but they are possible areas to watch in cas eof development.
The topic title makes it sound like there isn't much out there...ie no invests or anything of the sort.

Prehaps if you said not much in the way of organised then it'd be more reflective of the truth?

[Frank2]

Well, I just changed the topic wording, so, that should help - still, there are more "might be's" (which often become "might have been's"), so, I'll stand firm on my post (though that doesn't mean I might be totally wrong)...

[cycloneye]

Frank,good that you added Today.

[Frank2]

Just checking the visible photographs (I have to do that in less than 30 seconds, so...), 94L looks a bit more organized, and, 96L has a circulation about as large as Jupiter, so, we'll see what happens...

Ugh...

[gatorcane]

Frank how about the situation in the FL straits and the fact 97L is looking better with the model consensus pointing at the SE Bahamas....

I think it is far from quiet.

[flwxwatcher]

Gator speaking of the Fl Straits a Global model developes something west of Key West in 72 Hours. Only problem is ,its the CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Frank2]

Well, it's a little more active out there today - though Karen is likely to go fishing with Laura Ingalls...

We'll see what happens...

I'll adjust the topic as conditions warrant (LOL)...

[marcane_1973]

I agree with ya Frank. Let's see...we have a new TD 13 that is going to hang around for awhile and then go into Mexico and we have TS Karen which is going fishing and ohhh....97L is gone from the NRL and if it does come back looks like it will have some shear and maybe some dry air to inhibit most of it's development. Sooo... We have 3 invests which none could end up becoming minimal canes and pose any close calls for the U.S. I guess for some people this is excitement but for me this is boring. Maybe I will get to eat some crow in the near future with some of these systems but odds are I will be staying on my all bark no bite diet.