Unexpected Strong Shear (News Item)

[Frank2]

Wow - talk about a timely news story - hopefully this will deflate some of the comments made about me last week:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... b01_layout

[alan1961]

there ya go frank..now it works
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... b01_layout

[hurricanetrack]

Now if they can only figure out why this has happened. As Frank said, it was unexpected. So, why was it not foreseen?

I also find it quite amusing to see this article come out a day after the "look out for October" article in the Palm Beach Post.

[Frank2]

Thanks, Alan (guess I'm still sleepy - LOL)...

That's interesting, hurricanetrack - would you have the link to that PB Post article?

There is one caveat regarding that "look out for October" news article - while that might happen, the shear is happening...

P.S. Well, when it comes to the weather, as Plucky Duck would say, "Expect the unexpected!"...

P.P.S. That makes two seasons in a row that forecasters predicted a busy season (in one way or another), but, unexpectedly, it did not happen - will they try for three, or, will they just say, "We'll see what happens?"

[hurricanetrack]

Here it is:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0930.html

I see three badly predicted seasons:

2005, 2006 and 2007.

Think long and hard about 2005....

[Frank2]

Sure - no one expected the disasterous outcome, but, when I think about the 1999 Oklahoma City tornado, no one that day expected that, either, even though tornadoes were forecast (but nothing of that magnitude), so, as many say, intensity forecasting of all types of weather is something that is still largely an unknown...

[Steve]

>>P.P.S. That makes two seasons in a row that forecasters predicted a busy season (in one way or another), but, unexpectedly, it did not happen - will they try for three, or, will they just say, "We'll see what happens?"

13/4/2 with 60 days of the season to go. You're whitewashing IMHO.

Steve

[caneman]

Come on Frank. YOu had me interested in the article and can definitely say there is some fact to that but to call this season slow only shows your bias. Perhaps slow in the sense that one of the Cat. 5's didn't hit the GOM. It's funny but sad to say-had one of the CAt.5's hit a GOM state, the naysayers who claim it is a slow season would say it has been busy even though there would be the same amount of storms. Check histor.! Check where we're at as far as what experts predicted and we are normal to above normal.

[Frank2]

Steve, hopefully it's not the full 60 days...

[Frank2]

Not, it's not slow, but, just slow in the sense that, aside from Dean and Felix (and the two short-fuse Catgeory 1 hurricanes), it's been a season of many sheared systems, so, slower than forecast when it came to a certain type of system...

P.S. Incidentially, many ask why unexpected things turned the '06 and '07 seasons to be less than expected, but, I'd like to think that it's the prayers of many being answered - after the disasterous 2004 and 2005 seasons (and in particular, in this area, after Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma), I know for a fact that many here in Florida were discouraged to almost being in despair, at seeing so many systems make landfall in less than 18 months, and, I also know, from what I was told at church, that many churches began an ernest prayer campaign before the 2006 season, so...

[caneman]

Has one of those shook loose in the GOM or Humberto had 24 more hours you wouldn't be saying that.

[Frank2]

But the point is - they (or it) didn't...

[Steve]

>>Steve, hopefully it's not the full 60 days...

I don't think it will be. Of course there's always the chance for that rogue central Atlantic late November storm en route to Europe, but otherwise, I doubt there will be much activity past the first week of November.

Steve

[Frank2]

By the way, I hope all here do not believe that since I'm biased towards less than more, that means that I hate hurricanes - actually, I became fascinated with them, following first my encounter with one in September, 1960 (yes, I'm that old), so, I've always been very enthusiastic when it comes to the work of the NHC and HRD ('else I wouldn't have worked for them both)...

Also, it's important to remember that 40 or 50 years ago (almost half a century ago - ouch), when a tornado or hurricane struck a given area, usually no one lived there, but, when that same event happens today, it often involves millions of people, so, what might have amounted to nothing more than a damaged barn back then, can mean $7 gas prices today...

I'm happy to have been around when those rusty old barns were still standing...

[Sanibel]

I've been trying to point out that the Nino disruption some were attributing to 2006 may not have been caused by the Nino - since the same 2006 disruption pattern appears to be repeating. Strange silence on this from the experts.

[Frank2]

Very interesting - well, earlier this year, TWC did mention that one researcher who believes Global Warming will increase shear...

[Emmett_Brown]

Slow, or Active? That is the question.

Active for number of named storms. Slow for number of hurricanes. There is no disputing that fact that most seasons with 13 named storms by the end of September have seen more hurricanes than we have. There is a reason they call it hurricane season.

The 2 cat 5's is absolutely an amazing stat, but just another stat in what is actually a fascinating season.

Now, would some budding graduate student please start working on a thesis to explain what mechanism is resposible for the massive Tutt that has been putting the whammy on our bumper crop of named storms...

[Toadstool]

Now if they can only figure out why this has happened. As Frank said, it was unexpected. So, why was it not foreseen?

I also find it quite amusing to see this article come out a day after the "look out for October" article in the Palm Beach Post.

I agree, it is amusing seeing the seemingly contrasting articles!

As for being unforeseen, meteorology is not a science yet... hopefully someday.

[StormWarning1]

I've been trying to point out that the Nino disruption some were attributing to 2006 may not have been caused by the Nino - since the same 2006 disruption pattern appears to be repeating. Strange silence on this from the experts.

It is not the same pattern. Last years shear was the persistent southwesterly winds caused by El Nino. Nothing in the deep tropics could get going. Only when systems made the Northerly turn above 23N out in the Central Atlantic did they strengthen.
This year everything North of 20N is getting sheared, except the far Western Gulf.
2007 is almost an exact repeat of 1931. Throw in a few most likely undetected far Eastern and Northern Atlantic systems in 1931 and the season totals for the two years would match up very close.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1931.asp

[tolakram]

All La Nina represents is a chance for better conditions, there are no guarantees when it comes to weather. I don't think this year is so unusual, there was always a chance of something like this happening. Maybe it stays this way, or maybe the pattern changes in a few weeks to one that favors more development.

The problem is that everything is now compared to 2005, which was such an unusual season that it's best NOT to use it to compare too.