South Caribbean

[Sanibel]

There's a deep blow-up of convection on the east side of the ULL in the Caribbean. I think it is caused by convergence between the tropical flow from the east and the spin from the ULL causing uplift. In any case this blob is deep enough to constitute a new topic if it persists and separates from the ULL. This is the spot where it would happen if it did.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very deep convection:

[BigA]

Shear doesnt look too bad in the area. There is a ULL, but it is hauling westward. We'll have to see if the convection persists and if anything spins up.

[Sanibel]

My guess is it is a shear phenomenon and will dissipate. But we'll see if it persists and the models pick it up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lots of moisture with it and it looks very
intense on the infrared but persistence
is needed.

[Nimbus]

There is an anticyclone forming over the deep convection. Usually a good idea to wait and see if the convection persists though.

[Aquawind]

I think this is the moisture they are forecasting to move north and give us some RAIN this weekend!

Per Tampa discussion


"ON FRIDAY...GFS IS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH ITS 12Z SOLUTION FROM
WEDNESDAY...SHOWING A BRIEF DRY SLOT AHEAD OF TWO PLUMES OF
MOISTURE...ONE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NATURE COAST AND ANOTHER
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE NORTHWARD
MOVING DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT OVERDONE THE
COMBINATION INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN RAISING RAIN CHANCES TO 60
PERCENT.

THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE EDGING NORTHWARD LINKS WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE GAPS IN THE PRECIPITATION...PERHAPS A SITUATION WHERE THE
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RECONSTITUTES GENERALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RAINS TO END QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...AND MORE GRADUALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE."

We need a double whammy..

[Recurve]

Key West disc. -- a cold front for Fantasy Fest? (Last year the entire KWFO staff was the grand marshall of the fantasy fest parade, which is next Saturday night.)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
340 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS REMAIN SUPPRESSED DURING THE DAY ACCORDING SATELLITE
IMAGE LOOPS...AND THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE MORNING SOUNDING
DATA. HOWEVER...DEEPER AND RICHER MOISTURE LURKS JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND THIS AIR WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CUBAN
SEA BREEZES HAVE INITIATED CONVECTION OVER THAT ISLAND NATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SIMILAR SETUP WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. A SSE STEERING
FLOW ALONG WITH A DEEPER MOIST LAYER WILL FACILITATE GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCALLY FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
POPS HAVE THEREFORE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS OF
GFS MOS WHICH SEEM TO BE INFLUENCED TO SOME EXTENT BY MODEL GRID-
SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. FROM SAT-MON WE EXPECT SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WITH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE BEING FED BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE STARTS DROPPING RAPIDLY AS THE
MIDLATITUDE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA IN A FEW
DAYS IF THE KEYS WILL EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
DURING FANTASY FEST WEEK. FOR NOW...I HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Still moisture with some pockets of
convection. The heaviest from
earlier diminished.

[Sanibel]

This is mainly convergence convection without any surface formation.