Olga's next shot: Becoming Better Organized

[HURAKAN]

All the images:















GFS 24 hrs:


GFS 48 hrs:


GFS 72 hrs:


GFS 96 hrs:


Windshear:


Windshear tendency:

[CrazyC83]

I agree with you in thinking any Olga will come from a previously extratropical system in the subtropical Atlantic - that seems to be the norm at the end of the season.

[Cyclone1]

GAH, Hurakan. You beat me to the thread!

I was going to start a thread on the storm (rare for me to ever start a thread) and you beat me.

Whatever, it's moving Southwest, which means it should lose any fronts it may have soon.

[RL3AO]

I just don't know how many of these high latitude ET transitions you can have in a year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I give this 60 percent chance of pulling it off. Will our friends pull the switch is the question.

[Squarethecircle]

Less for me; although these November storms do this quite a bit, and we did have Jerry and 15. The convection, however, is impressively high. Shear is fairly heavy, but most storms forming at these latitudes (and there are quite a few) have to deal with that. And the big question is... Does the NHC care? Like, at all?

[Typhoon_Willie]

I would think so since shipping interests do listen to the Hurricane Centers forecasts on tropical activity along with the high seas forecast.

[Evil Jeremy]

about a week ago during Noel, almost every model was showing devlopment in this area, heading south and west for a while before disapating.

[Squarethecircle]

I remember that, but the models didn't seem to suggest a tight enough low to become tropical (or subtropical, for that matter). Anyway, if you look at the most recent satellite pictures, however, it seems that there is some sort of sub-tropical nature to it, though I doubt anything will come of this. The convection is surprising high, though. Reminds me of that other storm we had similar to this one, with convection close to the center, that didn't make it.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Olga is not far from present:

[wxman57]

Here's a McIdas shot. Not bad looking. NHC won't upgrade/classify it as subtropical unless convection increases more and persists. GFS forecasts a slow southward movement the next 2-3 days down to 30N. NHC appears to be ignoring it for now, indicating they won't consider an upgrade unless it develops an eye in a few days.

[cycloneye]

But NHC is not talking about this yet.

ABNT20 KNHC 051555
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST MON NOV 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Very similar setup to Epsilon (Nov. 28, 2005). Front to west, blocked by high pressure to north. NHC didn't talk much about Epsilon until the convection wrapped all the way around the center forming an eye-like feature. Could happen with this low. The only potential impact will be on our hurricane pool.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, do you think this has a good chance at becoming OLGA?

[wxman57]

wxman57, do you think this has a good chance at becoming OLGA?

A better question might be if the NHC will bother with it. Unless the convection wraps all around the center, forming a pseudo-eye, then I doubt the NHC will talk much about it. Chances of that happening may be in the 30-40% range, though. Maybe even a little higher.

[Derek Ortt]

they also might initiate advisories on the system if a ship is sunk like they did with the previous Olga

[CrazyC83]

The good thing is that only some poor fishies and stray ships will have to worry about this...

[cycloneye]

Is getting dark in that part of the world,but you can still see in the visble image the impressive circulation.

[Squarethecircle]

This is a lot better looking than it was even this morning. If the NHC notice this, it could be not too far away from an upgrade to STD.