Southern Indian Ocean-94S

[wyq614]

北京时间7日14：30，JTWC提前六小时修改报告：

一团热带扰动现位于9.4S 87.3E，大约在迭戈.加西亚岛以东890海里的洋面上。10：10分（北京时间）的分析显示，一团对流云层已经形成深度对流中心，受到东北方向的中度风切的影响，部分对流被切向西南方向。来自北方的充分辐散和适宜的海水热度已使该扰动得到一定发展，主要限制该系统发展的因素就是中度风切。目前最大风速约在15-20KT，海平面最低气压在1007mb，该扰动在24小时内发展成热带气旋的可能性为POOR。

an area of convection has persisted near 9.4s 87.3e,
approximately 890 nm east of Diego Garcia. Animated multispectral
imagery and a 070210 ssmis microwave image indicate a persistent
area of deep convection banding wrapping into a well-define low
level circulation center. The convective banding is displaced to the
southwest by moderate vertical wind from the northeast. Good
poleward outflow along with favorable ocean heat content has fueled
the deep convection of the disturbance. The moderate vertical wind
shear is the main limiting factor of further development. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is poor.

[Squarethecircle]

I'd give it a good chance of making it if it survives the shear; otherwise, I'd say it's a bust.

[wyq614]

JTWC 北京时间8日2点的报告：
原位于9.4S 87.3E的热带扰动，现已移动到10.5S 87.3E，约在迭戈.加西亚岛东部900海里处，7日18：59（北京时间）的云图显示出正在发展的对流中心周围的强度有限的深度对流。一股异常的西风吹向该扰动的北部，可能会在未来几天对扰动的组织和发展起到有利的作用，该扰动辐散良好，风切为中度。最大风速在15-20KT，海平面最小气压大约1007mb。由于风切不够理想和持续深度对流的缺乏，该扰动在24小时内生成热带气旋的可能性仍为POOR。

the area of convection previously located near 9.4s
87.3e, is now located near 10.5s 87.3e, approximately 900 nm east
of Diego Garcia. Recent animated multispectral and water vapor
satellite imagery show limited deep convection near a developing
low level circulation center also evident in a 071059z AMSU-b Micro-
wave image. A westerly wind anomaly approaching the northern peri-
phery of this circulation may favorably enhance low level vorticity
over the next few days, improving organization. The disturbance lies
to the north of an upper level ridge axis with moderate vertical
wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1007 mb. Due to less than optimal vertical wind
shear and a lack of sustained deep convection, the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains poor.

中国的风迷们坚持认为94S没有希望
Chinese typhoon trackers insist not give 94S any hope..