January 16-23, 2008 Idea: Cooler Weather Ahead

[donsutherland1]

The latest ensemble guidance and some of the teleconnection indices (most notably the EPO which is progged to go neutral or even somewhat negative) suggest that the January 16-23 timeframe is likely to be noticeably cooler than the January 8-15 period that will start on an exceptionally warm note. There is even some hint that much colder air could be moving toward or into the Northern Plains toward the latter part of the January 16-23 timeframe.

The Pacific Northwest and Southeast into Mid-Atlantic region will likely feature above normal precipitation.

Average Regional Temperature Anomalies:
Northeast: Somewhat above normal
Mid-Atlantic: Near normal
Southeast: Somewhat below normal
Great Lakes: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Northern Plains: Somewhat below normal
Central Plains: Somewhat below normal
Southern Plains: Somewhat below normal
Pacific Northwest: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Somewhat above normal

Best Guess of Regional Temperature Anomalies (°F):
Northeast: +1° to +3°
Mid-Atlantic: -1° to +1°
Southeast: -3° to -1°
Great Lakes: -2° to 0°
Northern Plains: -3° to -1°
Central Plains: -3° to -1°
Southern Plains: -3° to -1°
Pacific Northwest: 0° to +2°
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: +1° to +3°

[JBG]

The latest ensemble guidance and some of the teleconnection indices (most notably the EPO which is progged to go neutral or even somewhat negative)

What is "EPO"? Is it related to "NAO" or "AO"?

[JonathanBelles]

Me likey!!!

[Cyclenall]

It will be "cooler" but not really "cold" for the Great Lakes. It will be back to normal and then the 14-day trend shows another unusual warm-up by 380 hours (around January 21).

[Ptarmigan]

Whenever there is a warm period in winter, it gets cold again. I know that from my own observations. I assume EPO is East Pacific Oscillation.

[Steve H.]

Wel, if the 12Z GFS today is to be believed, we'd have snow here in central Florida on the 23rd (348 hours). hee hee But seriously, this may be reflecting a pattern that can give the east some interesting weather in the next few weeks. Maybe it will end up being a good ole winter like I thought last month (just ignore the January thaw part).

[terstorm1012]

nooooooooo i wanted to keep the warmth!



eh ok, I'll take ONE one-foot snow storm. ONE.

[Coredesat]

I'm liking this and hope it verifies. I was baking in my car yesterday because I underestimated how warm it was.

[Cyclenall]

Is there also the idea that there will be a very snowy pattern with this including winter storms, Blizzards, and a long strech of lake effect snows for the Lakes? My 14-day trend continues to show a "right in the heart of winter" strech of snow. It's been showing this for 5 days now so I wonder if the models are also showing that.

[jinftl]

CPC Outlook sure likes dry overall...

[Cyclenall]

The 14-day trend is again showing a very long strech of snow days. It shows starting tomorrow, 12 straight days of snow for parts of southern Ontario, snowbelts maybe? It's been showing this same thing for a week now. There must be models showing this too.