The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
The January 7-9, 2008 timeframe experienced the peak of an extreme warmth that spread rapidly north and eastward from the Central and Southern Plains States. From January 6 through January 9, parts of the eastern half of North America experienced temperatures that ran 30° or more above normal.
The warmth was so extreme that the average anomaly across parts of Missouri, extreme southern Wisconsin, almost all of Illinois, much of Indiana, southern Michigan, a large portion of Ohio, and extreme western New York State along the St. Lawrence River came to 12°C (21.6°F) above normal for the January 5-9, 2008 timeframe.
In the years ahead, this warmth will likely serve as a benchmark for extreme warm weather events in January.
Computer Guidance:
The computer guidance did an outstanding job in signaling the potential for a period of exceptional warmth. Guidance as early as the 12/25/2007 0z GFS ensembles depicted a synoptic pattern that was consistent with much above normal readings.
12/25/2007 0z NCEP Ensemble 500 mb Height Anomalies forecast for 336 hours:
12/27/2007 0z NCEP Ensemble 500 mb Height Anomalies forecast for 312 hours:
Composite 500 mb Synoptic Pattern when the temperature reached 58° or above in New York City in January (1950-2007):
By 12/30/2007 0z, the NCEP suite was showing an area of 850 mb temperature anomalies of 20°C to 22°C (36.0°F to 39.6°F) above normal over a portion of eastern North America. The 1/1/2008 12z suite brought 500 mb height anomalies to 425 meters above normal by 1/9 0z and showed a small area with 850 mb temperature departures as high as 23°C (41.4°F) above normal by 1/9 12z.
1/1/2008 12z NCEP Ensemble 500 mb Height Anomlies forecast for 192 hours:
1/1/2008 12z NCEP Ensemble 850 mb Temperature Anomalies forecast for 204 hours:
The Outcome:
Although the guidance gradually backed off on the magnitude of the forecast 500 mb height anomalies, 500 mb height anomalies still peaked at 374 meters above normal on January 8. Surface temperature departures reached 35°F or more above normal in a number of places. Syracuse and Watertown in New York State experienced a mean temperature that was 42° above normal on January 8.
The excessive warmth rolled across the nation with the warmest areas seeing departures of 30°F above normal in the January 6-9 timeframe.
January 6, 2008:
January 7, 2008:
January 8, 2008:
January 9, 2008:
Select Peak Temperature Departures:
Albany: 34° above normal (1/8)
Binghamton: 37° above normal (1/8)
Boston: 28° above normal (1/8)
Bridgeport, CT: 26° above normal (1/8)
Buffalo: 33° above normal (1/8)
Burlington: 37° above normal (1/8)
Caribou: 32° above normal (1/8 and 1/9)
Cleveland: 35° above normal (1/7)
Detroit: 35° above normal (1/7)
Erie, PA: 33° above normal (1/8)
Hartford: 28° above normal (1/8)
Houlton, ME: 32° above normal (1/9)
Indianapolis: 38° above normal (1/7)
Millinocket, ME: 30° above normal (1/9)
Montpelier: 34° above normal (1/8)
New York City (NYC): 27° above normal (1/8)
Newark: 25° above normal (1/9)
Pittsburgh: 35° above normal (1/8)
Portland: 26° above normal (1/8)
Providence: 25° above normal (1/8)
Rochester: 37° above normal (1/8)
Scranton: 28° above normal (1/8)
Syracuse: 42° above normal (1/8)
Toledo: 36° above normal (1/7)
Watertown, NY: 42° above normal
Worcester: 29° above normal (1/8)
Youngstown, OH: 36° above normal
1/8/2008 0z NCEP Ensemble 500 mb Height Anomalies at 0 hours:
1/8/2008 0z NCEP Ensemble 850 Temperature Anomalies at 0 hours:
1/9/2008 0z NCEP Ensemble 500 mb Height Anomalies at 0 hours:
1/9/2008 0z NCEP Ensemble 850 Temperature Anomalies at 0 hours:
1/10/2008 0z NCEP Ensemble 500 mb Height Anomalies at 0 hours:
1/10/2008 0z NCEP Ensemble 850 Temperature Anomalies at 0 hours:
Syracuse Climate Report (1/8):
Watertown Climate Report (1/8):
At Syracuse, the 70° high temperature tied the monthly mark set on January 25, 1950 and tied on January 25, 1967. The minimum temperature of 59° broke the all-time highest minimum reading for January. The old record was 56°, which had been set on January 15, 1995.
On January 8, 2007, Scranton’s 67° temperature tied the all-time January high reading that had been set on January 25, 1967.
In addition, Toronto had a low temperature of 52° (11.3°C) on January 8. That was the highest minimum temperature on record for January. The previous mark was 46° (8.0°F), which had occurred on January 31, 1988. The high temperatures on January 7 and 8 reached 59° (14.9°C) and 60° (15.5°C) in that city. That was the first time on record that Toronto had two consecutive January days with high temperatures at or above 55° (12.8°C).
Select Record High Temperatures:
January 7, 2008:
Akron, OH: 64° (broke record of 61° set in 1907)
Allentown: 63° (broke record of 61° set in 1998)
Asheville: 67° (broke record of 66° set in 1998)
Atlantic City: 69° (broke record of 65° set in 1950)
Beckley, WV: 64° (broke record of 63° set in 1998)
Binghamton: 59° (broke record of 57° set in 1998)
Bridgeport, CT: 54° (broke record of 51° set in 1995 and tied in 1998)
Buffalo: 63° (broke record of 54° set in 1935)
Charleston, WV: 71° (tied record set in 1937)
Cleveland: 65° (broke record of 63° set in 1907)
Detroit: 64° (broke record of 57° set in 1989)
Erie, PA: 65° (broke record of 63° set in 1907)
Flint, MI: 61° (broke record of 55° set in 1989)
Georgetown, DE: 68° (tied record set in 1950)
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 70° (tied record set in 1982)
Harrisburg: 65° (broke record of 64° set in 1998)
Huntington, WV: 71° (tied record set in 1937)
Indianapolis: 68° (broke record of 64° set in 1907)
Islip, NY: 54° (broke record of 53° set in 1995)
Jackson, TN: 72° (broke record of 70° set in 1965 and tied in 1989)
Lexington, KY: 70° (broke record of 68° set in 1907)
Mansfield, OH: 64° (broke record of 60° set in 1989)
Memphis: 74° (tied record set in 1989)
Nashville: 71° (tied record set in 1888)
New York City (JFK): 53° (tied record set in 1998)
New York City (LGA): 61° (broke record of 57° set in 1998)
Newark: 63° (broke record of 62° set in 1946)
Ottawa: 49°/9.5°C (broke record of 40°/4.4°C set in 1946)
Parkersburg, WV: 69° (broke record of 68° set in 1937)
Pittsburgh: 66° (broke record of 63° set in 1930)
Quebec City: 38°/3.4°C (broke record of 36°/2.2°C set in 2007)
Rochester: 62° (broke record of 57° set in 1930)
Syracuse: 64° (broke record of 50° set in 1962)
Toledo: 66° (broke record of 61° set in 1907)
Toronto: 59°/14.9°C (broke record of 44°/6.5°C set in 1998)
Trenton: 65° (tied record set in 1907 and tied in 1946)
Wallops Island, VA: 69° (broke record of 60° set in 2005)
Washington, DC (IAD): 71° (broke record of 66° set in 1998)
Watertown, NY: 61° (broke record of 48° set in 1962)
Wilmington, DE: 66° (broke record of 65° set in 1950)
Youngstown, OH: 63° (broke record of 58° set in 1998)
January 8, 2008:
Akron, OH: 64° (broke record of 63° set in 1937)
Albany: 60° (broke record of 57° set in 1930)
Alpena, MI: 50° (tied record set in 1965)
Atlantic City: 68° (broke record of 60° set in 2007)
Baltimore: 70° (broke record of 69° set in 1930)
Bangor: 55° (broke the record of 50° set in 1956)
Beckley, WV: 66° (broke record of 64° set in 1965)
Binghamton: 63° (tied record set in 1998)
Boston: 67° (broke record of 64° set in 1930)
Bowling Green, KY: 69° (tied record set in 2006)
Bridgeport, CT: 57° (tied record set in 1949)
Buffalo: 66° (broke record of 59° set in 1965)
Burlington: 63° (smashed record of 51° set in 1930)
Caribou: 48° (broke the record of 43° set in 1956)
Columbus, OH: 68° (broke record of 66° set in 1937)
Elizabeth City, NC: 73° (tied record set in 1998)
Erie, PA: 67° (broke record of 64° set in 1937)
Florence, SC: 76° (broke record of 75° set in 1989)
Fredericton: 51°/10.6°C (broke record of 45°/7.2°C set in 1956)
Georgetown, DE: 69° (broke record of 66° set in 2007)
Hartford: 62° (broke record of 59° set in 1930)
Houlton, ME: 49° (broke record of 43° set in 1956)
Louisville: 70° (broke record of 67° set in 1965)
Mansfield, OH: 62° (broke record of 60° set in 1989)
Memphis: 74° (broke record of 73° set in 1965)
Millinocket, ME: 48° (tied record set in 1908)
Montreal: 50°/9.8°C (broke record of 46°/7.5°C set in 1989)
Myrtle Beach, SC: 70° (broke record of 68° set in 1998)
Nashville: 70° (broke record of 69° set in 2006)
New York City (LGA): 64° (broke record of 61° set in 1998)
Ottawa: 51°/10.4°C (broke record of 45°/7.2°C set in 1965)
Pittsburgh: 69° (broke record of 66° set in 1937)
Portland: 61° (broke record of 51° set in 1949)
Providence: 66° (broke record of 62°, 1930)
Quebec City: 42°/5.6°C (broke record of 37°/2.5°C set in 2007)
Raleigh: 73° (broke record of 71° set in 2005)
Rochester: 67° (broke record of 62° set in 1937)
Scranton: 67° (broke record of 66° set in 1998) **Tied Monthly Record High**
Syracuse: 70° (destroyed record of 53° set in 1965) **Tied Monthly Record High**
Toledo: 62° (tied record set in 1965)
Toronto: 60°/15.5°C (broke record of 53°/11.7°C set in 1965)
Wallops Island, VA: 65° (broke record of 64° set in 1989)
Washington, DC (DCA): 73° (broke record of 69° set in 1998)
Washington, DC (IAD): 70° (broke record of 69° set in 1998)
Watertown, NY: 65° (destroyed record of 51° set in 1965)
Williamsport, PA: 65° (broke record of 64° set in 1998)
Wilmington, DE: 66° (tied record set in 1998)
Worcester 62° (broke record of 58° set in 1930)
Youngstown, OH: 66° (broke record of 58° set in 1965)
January 9, 2008:
Albany: 62° (broke record of 59° set in 1978)
Atlantic City: 68° (broke record of 65° set in 1965)
Binghamton: 56° (tied record set in 1998)
Bridgeport, CT: 65° (broke record of 55° set in 1965 and tied in 1978)
Buffalo: 64° (broke record of 59° set in 1965)
Caribou: 46° (tied record set in 1978)
Charlotte: 72° (broke record of 71° set in 1949)
Cleveland: 61° (tied record set in 1937)
Flint, MI: 52° (broke record of 50° set in 1949)
Georgetown, DE: 69° (broke record of 64° set in 1965 and tied in 2006)
Houlton, ME: 50° (broke record of 49° set in 1978)
Islip, NY: 64° (broke record of 55° set in 1998 and tied in 2006)
Mansfield, OH: 59° (broke record of 57° set in 1965)
Montreal: 52°/11.3°C (broke record of 51°/10.6°C set in 1965)
Myrtle Beach, SC: 73° (broke record of 72° set in 1949)
New York City (JFK): 65° (broke record of 59° set in 1965)
New York City (LGA): 66° (broke record of 61° set in 2006)
New York City (NYC): 64° (tied record set in 1937)
Ottawa: 52°/10.9°C (broke record of 50°/10.0°C set in 1965)
Portland: 54° (tied record set in 1978)
Quebec City: 44°/6.4°C (broke record of 34°/1.1°C set in 2007)
Raleigh: 73° (broke record of 65° set in 1998 and tied in 2006)
Richmond: 73° (tied record set in 1930)
Syracuse: 63° (broke record of 58° set in 1965)
Toronto: 53°/11.6°C (broke record of 52°/11.1°C set in 1939)
Wallops Island, VA: 70° (broke record of 69° set in 1965)
Washington, DC (IAD): 64° (broke record of 63° set in 2006)
Watertown, NY: 62° (broke record of 54° set in 1965)
Youngstown, OH: 64° (broke record of 61° set in 1946)
News Excerpts:
It was a day for the beach, biking, and bare legs. Wait, isn't it January, the time of year when most New Englanders are chafing at the cold and wondering whether the sun will ever shine again?
Not this week.
A sudden contrast to the Siberian cold of late, yesterday was like a free vacation for the winter-weary; a 78-year-old weather record was smashed in Boston. Temperatures reached 67 degrees, shattering the previous record of 64 set in 1930. It was warmer in Boston yesterday than it was in Phoenix and San Diego.
Lunch crowds on Newbury Street dined outside, shorts-clad runners jogged along the Esplanade, and sunglasses took precedence over winter coats. Like giddy, newly freed prisoners, throngs emerged from January hibernation and flocked to neighborhood parks and outdoor cafes to feel the sun on their faces and breathe fresh air.
Source: Tania deLuzuriaga, “Warm spell putting spring in Hub’s steps,” Boston Globe, January 9, 2008.
While some joggers donned shorts and others ventured outside sans coats, not everyone in metro Detroit was thrilled with Monday's record-setting high temperature of 64 degrees.
Robert Gregory, president of the conservancy that manages Campus Martius Park in downtown Detroit, was standing in the middle of the closed skating rink, which was covered with a thin layer of water.
"Due to the weather and the fact that Monday is usually slow, we decided to shut down and give the ice a rest," he said. Because the ice is refrigerated, Gregory said he expected to be open again by Wednesday.
"Of course, if it were up to me, I'd much rather have cooler temperatures, but this is Michigan, so we have to deal with it."
Source: Joe Rossiter, “Thaw delights many metro Detroiters—except those who bank on snow,” Detroit Free Press, January 8, 2008.
The weather gods are going to get us for saying so, but we can't wait for this warm front to get where it's going, or go back where it came from, or just go away. Sixty degrees on Jan. 6. Sixty-five on Jan. 7. Is this someone's idea of a joke?
Mother Nature must have missed the memo about the NFL playoffs -- meant to be enjoyed indoors, curled up with a warm television and a cold beer. Instead we had to police the yard, sweep the porch and hose December's coat of dirt and salt off the car. And then fret about tornado watches. In January!
True, it was fun to have a rejoinder for our Sun Belt acquaintances who called to crow, again, about the delightful monotony of their endless summer. But gloating about an unseasonably nice day is a pleasure almost as hollow as the unseasonably nice day itself.
Weather is what makes the Midwest the Midwest, and cheerfully enduring the worst of it is what makes Midwesterners Midwesterners. January is for shoveling snow, not for scrubbing the garden deck. It's for standing on the "L" platform in a horizontal ice storm, smiling through clenched teeth and greeting your fellow commuters with a hearty, "Can't complain!" But it's also a guilt-free respite from mowing the lawn, washing the car, cleaning out the garage and, we might as well admit it, youth soccer.
Then a warm front rolls in and suddenly everyone's dumbstruck by what they mistakenly celebrate as "springlike weather." Wrong, wrong, wrong. Spring is crocuses, trees in bud and a promise, however insincere, that sustained warmth is just around the corner. A 60-degree day in January is at best a tease and at worst an imperative: Get out and do something while you can.
Source: “Grousing about the weather,” Chicago Tribune, January 8, 2008.
