February 8-15, 2008 Idea: More Moderate Weather in the East,

[donsutherland1]

While there is concern that the economy might move into recession, snow geese long for the day when the thermometer will sink into recession. While a falling stock market can dampen investor sentiments, falling snow can bring joy to who cherish winter’s fleecy mantle. While a “bridge to nowhere” garnered attention during recent debates, a bridge to the Siberian Express would catch the attention of winter weather lovers.

Heading into the second week of February, the state of the union, as far as snow geese are concerned is not good. The EPO is forecast to tower into the stratosphere. All recent modeled attempts at blocking have proved to be mirages. In other words, winter’s “central bank” appears to be maintaining a tight policy when it comes to the cold air supply. Even as the Middle East and China run a snowfall surplus, the snowfall deficit in the Middle Atlantic States continues to worsen.

Select seasonal snowfall deficits through 1/29 follow:
Baltimore: 1.5”
New York City: 7.6”
Newark: 7.3”
Philadelphia: 5.3”
Washington, DC: DCA: 4.1”; IAD: 4.1”

In the snow-famished Middle Atlantic region, to borrow from Scottish poet Robert Burns, one finds “A moment white—then melts for ever” as the warmth soon returns. With the La Niña continuing to strengthen (now +2.2°C in Region 3.4), it increasingly appears that ENSO Region 3.4 could see anomalies of -1.0°C through March and perhaps April. At the same time, the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) has raced into Phase 5.

Together, these factors suggest that the February 8-15 period, though not too warm, may not mark the transition to more sustained cold, though there is enough uncertainty to caution against drawing hasty conclusions. A cold shot around the February 9-11 period might coincide with storminess, so there could be some snow in the big cities of the East Coast for the February 8-15 period.

Finally, recent weeks have seen several attempts at stratospheric warming. Each one has been a little more impressive on the modeling than the last one. The state of the stratosphere will bear watching, as any major warming event could lead to the development of blocking.

Average Regional Temperature Anomalies:
Northeast: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Mid-Atlantic: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Southeast: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Great Lakes: Near normal
Northern Plains: Somewhat below normal
Central Plains: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Southern Plains: Somewhat above normal
Pacific Northwest: Somewhat below normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Near normal

Best Guess of Regional Temperature Anomalies (°F):
Northeast: 0° to +2°
Mid-Atlantic: 0° to +2°
Southeast: 0° to +2°
Great Lakes: -1 to +1°
Northern Plains: -3° to -1°
Central Plains: -2° to +0°
Southern Plains: +1° to +3°
Pacific Northwest: -3° to -1°
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: -1° to +1°

[terstorm1012]

i keep hearing the NAO is going to go negative. Do you forsee that coming?

BTW, this is a great piece of writing.

[sphinx]

When did Baltimore get all that snow? Isn't their seasonal average just over 20 ". So with the season just over half over, a deficit of 1.5 inches implies that they've received 10" so far this winter. A local max amidst the famine? Did someone rush out and measure just before the snow turned to rain?

The 18 UT Feb 5 GFS is showing a wintry mix for the MidAtlantic at hour 204, which is within this period.